Your comments on my system please...

The truth is, FOREX cannot provide a quasi-reliable income. This is the truth.

I am extremely confused when people on this forum talk about "BLOWING ACCOUNTS". that is ridiculous to me. I have never met anyone in the flesh who has BLOWN THEIR ACCOUNT TRADING FOREX. I however, have never met someone who actually made a quasi -reliable income trading this either.

I started trading FOREX 4 years ago. I only demo'd a very short time then I deposited 5k USD with FXCM. I didn't like the spread. Eventually, I deposited 50k USD and used Interactive Brokers.

These are the HARD facts about trading forex:

You will have consecutive winning weeks.
You will have consecutive losing weeks.
Although you will have 10 consecutive losing weeks, at some point, you will have 6 consecutive losing weeks. Can you handle that?

There is no "system" that can help you evade the losing streak. Can you handle that?

The top 10 "systems" on this website will offer proof that you will lose for consecutive weeks. Can you handle that?

What if you started trading near the losing streak? Can you handle that?

You better think twice if you think FOREX can give you a reliable income.

You can WIN for 18 consecutive months........ followed by 4 months of losing rubbish. That is why you see people who post and then dissapear suddenly. that is the real reason. The FOREX is of an unstable, volatile nature. I am pretty sure you could easily win consecutively for 2 years straight, every month, followed by a 7 month bullshit break even or lose a little slump. Can you handle that?? What if you started trading near the slump?

At best, forex is a hobby

The BASICS look good, trading with the trend,
and profit target larger than stop loss.

There is still much discretion in your entries it seems.

Here are possible downfalls: (I scalped 1 min TF for 6 months, unprofitably):

1. You start taking profits before 20 pips on some trades, because you see or know "things", yet still take the 10 pip SL.

2. Bad money management, losing 5,6, or 7 trades in a row, are you going to "double up", revenge trade, etc? You say you won't, but when it happens, with less experience, you get angry and frustrated.

So with good money management (1% or so per trade), no "emotional" trading, and strict Profit target and Stop Loss adherence,

it's a good start.

I think the original poster of this system, is assuming, that on a 5 minute timeline... after seeing a trend develop and waiting for it to retrace, and then if the trend resumes, by getting in at the point it surpasses it's previous high or low by a couple of pips (depending on the direction of the trend), a winning chance of greater than 50% (using 1:1 TP and SL) and greater than 33% (using 2:1 TP and SL) will be observed in the long run.

thanks for your response intu.

i agree with both your points. assuming (i'm not saying i can do it), but just assuming i don't break those 2 points, in your opinion, do u think this system will be profitable?

the reason it's at 20 tp and 10 SL and not say 30 tp and 10 SL is to increase the likelihood that the trader DOESN'T do those 2 points you mentioned. for example, if if were say a 50 tp and 10 s/L, i think the trader would run into a major risk of doing both your points. the higher the tp, the higher the risk on the psyche.

any other suggestions sir?

what currencies do you plan to trade? and during what session?

I think the part that bothers me the most is....
"notice the trend, if a trend retraces wait....."

Are you going to be using the 5 min timeframe to determine the trend?
I think that is the part that scares me the most.

If perhaps you were using a higher timeframe like the 15 min timeframe, and some definite very precise judgement, (like if price closes above ??? SMA on the 15 min Chart, then trend is up) and then going back and looking at higher highs on the 5 min TF to enter, I would feel better.

But based upon my failed experiences with lower timeframes, I would be frightened of the 5 min chart alone.

If you have a very rational, non-discretionary way (your way, whatever it might be) to say trend is up or down, (besides the 5 min TF) I'd say it might be profitable.
Edit: Are you just taking one trade per session? off of the first trend that develops?
If so, then perhaps using the 5 min chart alone is ok.


That make sense?

Looking back at your original post, it seems as if you are already trading this somewhat. I would continue on. Honestly, I don't know how the 5 min TF behaves and what currencies you are trading, perhaps after a month or so... you will have good results to share with us

hello mr. intu,

Eur/usd, new york session (I’m in hongkong and have a day job. That session is around 9pm or 8pm my time and the only session I can do)



well, 5 minute to determine the trend, but not one 5 minute bar… it could be a 5 minute chart for the last couple days (which essentially means it makes no difference. 5 minute, 15, 1 minute, 1 day, etc.). I guess I worded it wrong. At the point of entry, 5 minute is being used. But the reference could be even the last 72 hours or more for example, OR it could just be the last hour. Depends.

yes sir. Just one trade. And off the first trend that develops. In all likelihood looking back as far as the last 24 hours just to get an idea. So using 5 minute chart upon entry, but the reference is like the last 3 days, and yes, the first trend of the session.

Yes, I am trading this somewhat. But I am going to stop. As I don't know if it will be profitable. Something is not right…I don't feel confident doing it anymore.

I did read the THV thread by mr. cobraforex. But that needs mt4. me being in hk, I can only user interactive brokers trader workstation or fxcm’s trading station 2.0. it’s a pain to open a usa overseas a/c with fxcm to use mt4 but that’s what I might have to do. I messaged mr. cobraforex to see if any workaround.

I am thinking if I use mr. cobraforex’s system, plus whatever I was doing…. Then I think I will be able to succeed in the longhaul.

Thanks for your reply!

p.s. and i wish the admin would change the title of my first post in this thread. it's not my system at all as i said. it's the other gentleman's system in the trading section. i just couldn't get anyone to answer me in the thread where i saw it, so i posted the question here.

It's impossible to say what will happen. Why? Because it's impossible to say what your reaction would be if you had 5 losing days in a row. Or how about 15? It could happen even with the best strategies.

Have you back tested the strategy yourself, or are you hoping the person who suggested the strategy did, to find out the probabilities?

Are you aware of the London session close time and the effect that has on the New York session?

I don'rt want to put a damper on your ideas but you are right to feel as you do. It will be a bumpy ride even if it's a good strategy. Good trading to you.

hi smikester,
without looking on investopedia, i would presume london closing would probably be around 11pm or midnight hkt. but no, i have no idea how it would effect new york. without checking over the internet, i would probably guess london closes somewhere near the halfway point of the new york session.

i did not do backtest. i think the whole idea is when a obvious trend is spotted, that waiting for a retrace and then entering when the trend continues is considered a good trade. but the more i think about it, the more i am doubtful, as anyone buying, someone needs to be selling and vice versa. the only sure fire way i can think of, is to hop on the banks back when it's dumping or buying and the price is being driven hard. but i'm so new to this, i don't even know how i would go about getting that info or if it even exists. i can only produce a raw idea which is completely useless.

i agree with you about the 5 days or 15 days in a row. it would be demoralizing.

anyways, i am looking at the THV thread now. have you looked at that thread at all? i dont think i'll be placing any trades for sometime until i understand this THV more...

thanks for the response!

Here's a method of getting in on a pull back. It would work better on higher time frames. I'm not familiar with the THV strategy but I understand the trader, Cobraforex, is well respected.

hahaha! did u scan that? thanks dude...

holy smokes. i'm getting dillusional just reading the thv thread..... trix crossing the zero blah blah, when the blue line crosses the cloud and blah blah.... the hull.... everything's all in mid convo......

the more i read, the more it seems maybe giving up is the way to go..... wow.....

i have this vision i'll start drawing lines on some charts, when suddenly this weird twitch will develop in my right eye.... i'll draw faster and faster, the eye'll twitch faster and faster, then POP... eye explodes blood everywhere. forex career over.......

when they put me on the stretcher, there'll be this smile on my face like jack nicholson's role of the joker, except it's only on half of my face... the other side, the mouth is just regular. i think they call this a stroke

I post here, because I'm a new member and I can't create new threads.

I also want to hear your comments regarding my strategy.


I am new to forex trading, but I think I'm learning fast.
Till now I earned +$50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

When I trade I use just limits, without "stop losses" so, if the market behaves in a way a don't expect, I just wait for it to get back just a little above where I ordered a "buy" in order to avoid losses.

So far, this strategy is working. Sometimes I have to wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter. Even if once in a while, the currency fails to get back to where it was, I can
accept the loss but it will be greatly compensated by the other wins.

I know I have to take into account the rollover, but it isn't too big, isn't it?
Also I can use it for currencies which allow carry trade! (Can you tell me which ones?)

So what do you think? Is this a sound strategy? Or my demo account is not realistic?

:?:

I like this method, too; been using it on demo. It fails one of ten or twenty times: Check it on paper (that is, an offline chart or an older online chart with MT4's 'autoscroll' off) or download and use a simulator (LFH, VHands or the for-pay Forex Tester is all I know of) and you'll see what I mean.
When the method does fail, it doesn't matter how much of your investment you sell off to keep above margin call, price never returns and you lose too big to recover. So the entire method fails.

To get your method to work, you'd have to be skilled enough to know what type of market -- trend, sideways, countertrend, etc. -- on a larger TF your current, smaller-TF chart area is in.
Or use stops, mental or physical. Or lower the number of pips you take.

OR, just return to work and do what everyone else is doing: Study smaller TF inside larger TF, use a trade-specific balance between SL, TP and #lots, and be willing to either lose often and small or work years honing a proper edge.

(Yeah, I hate that last one. )

guys..... latter poster is already too kind....

even with my shitty knowledge of trading (outside of forex) and gambling in general, i can tell you any form of a martingale psychology will fail...

so does that mean an anti-martingale will work? well, yes, but the drawdowns could be huge.... and the market has no memory. so does a +20% per year, every year average over a 15 year period sound good to year? during which time, the draw down can be as much as -80%...

it'll never work... the only thing i reckon, is either give up, or really learn to trade through the trading system threads here. just read them all. the more you read, the more confused you will be. but that's the point as a newbie. if you haven't given up after maybe 1-2 years, i think you will be able to make good money out of this consistently...

...only after reading what seems to be like more than +150 hours in a month can i see how my initial feelings about this was so wrong... it really ain't easy..................................... and this is coming from a guy who is actually ahead (due to sheer luck if you ask me)

on what pairs would 5 minute divergence work really really well on? from what i've seen... eur/usd definately works...like 80% of the time...and the usd/jpy works like 70+% of the time.

is it like that year round for those 2 pairs? any other pairs? I've noticed the eur/gbp it doesn't work so well.... is there a reason for that?

thanks for any responses!

The truth is, FOREX cannot provide a quasi-reliable income. This is the truth.

I am extremely confused when people on this forum talk about "BLOWING ACCOUNTS". that is ridiculous to me. I have never met anyone in the flesh who has BLOWN THEIR ACCOUNT TRADING FOREX. I however, have never met someone who actually made a quasi -reliable income trading this either.

I started trading FOREX 4 years ago. I only demo'd a very short time then I deposited 5k USD with FXCM. I didn't like the spread. Eventually, I deposited 50k USD and used Interactive Brokers.

These are the HARD facts about trading forex:

You will have consecutive winning weeks.
You will have consecutive losing weeks.
Although you will have 10 consecutive losing weeks, at some point, you will have 6 consecutive losing weeks. Can you handle that?

There is no "system" that can help you evade the losing streak. Can you handle that?

The top 10 "systems" on this website will offer proof that you will lose for consecutive weeks. Can you handle that?

What if you started trading near the losing streak? Can you handle that?

You better think twice if you think FOREX can give you a reliable income.

You can WIN for 18 consecutive months........ followed by 4 months of losing rubbish. That is why you see people who post and then dissapear suddenly. that is the real reason. The FOREX is of an unstable, volatile nature. I am pretty sure you could easily win consecutively for 2 years straight, every month, followed by a 7 month bullshit break even or lose a little slump. Can you handle that?? What if you started trading near the slump?

At best, forex is a hobby

The truth of the matter is, almost everyone is going to have a different "truth". I sometimes read up on the billionaire traders of the world, to see how there trading methods differ from that of retailers, and I came to realize that they don't even agree on the same things, there methods are as varied as the ones you would see on FF. The only thing that they seem to agree on is good money management, everything else would be bias to our method and style and would be more subjective than objective, and that is the real turth. And also, just because someone doesn't post here anymore that doesn't mean they are not trading anymore or that they have failed, life just isn't that cut and dry sometimes, everything happens in stages and maybe the reasons why you came onto a forum have changed over time. But your post is an interesting one I will tell you that.

Anyway here is the "truth" from some very successful traders for anyone interested.


Here are some quotes from some famous traders and investors:
on trading technical's
• "I haven't met a rich technician" - Jim Rogers.
• "I always laugh at people who say "I've never met a rich technician" I love that! Its such an arrogant, nonsensical response. I used fundamentals for 9 years and got rich as a technician" - Marty Schwartz.
on diversification
• "Diversify your investments" - John Templeton.
• "Diversification is a hedge for ignorance" - William O'Neil.
on picking bottoms and tops
• "Don't bottom fish" - Peter Lynch.
• "Don't try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top" - Bernard Baruch
• "Maybe the trend is your friend for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most part it is rarely a way to get rich" - Jim Rogers.
• "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." - Paul Tudor Jones.
So here we have a group of guys who have collectively taken billions of dollars out of the market and they don't agree on thing regarding how to make money. Not one. So what is a person to do?
Is there anything they do agree on?
Just one: money management
• "My basic advise is don't lose money" - Jim Rogers.
• "I'm more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand." - Marty Schwartz.
• "I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have" - Paul Tudor Jones.
• "Rule number one of investing is never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number 1" - Warren Buffet.
• "If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure... ... I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential." - Monroe Trout
• "If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
• "The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses." - Tom Baldwin
• "Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical." Larry Hite.

If you treat it as a hobby then dont expect million $ from it.

I treat it as business, and i expect my millions.

The other stuff in your post just doesnt make sense.

Yea, the problem with traders is that they are ignorants, some people say they can make money while others say they cant.

So of course they will say that you cant make money from FX or as matter of fact the entire trading, because they never made money, they say its gambling or just a bad habit.

Yea, tell them to those who bought G4 jets and 1 million dollar yachts

Those who cant make money obviously will tell you that its impossible, yeah its impossible for them, but that doesnt mean its impossible for others.

It is like the stupid people say, you cant possibly win the lottery, but guess what, in almost every month there are winners