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  • #11,561
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:35am Feb 7, 2011 9:35am
With eu's background in consideration.

This is starting to look like a proper Wyckoff setup.

PS. Standing for preliminary support, some buying coming in. You get more buying a couple of bars later.

Then you get the weakish up move.

Market comes down to print a selling climax.

If eu now breaks the downward channel. A test should result in a good number of pips.

http://i865.photobucket.com/albums/ab220/Pete146/eu.jpg
  • #11,562
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:42am Feb 7, 2011 9:42am
Quoting pete148
With eu's background in consideration.

This is starting to look like a proper Wyckoff setup.

PS. Standing for preliminary support, some buying coming in. You get more buying a couple of bars later.

Then you get the weakish up move.

Market comes down to print a selling climax.

If eu now breaks the downward channel. A test should result in a good number of pips.

http://i865.photobucket.com/albums/ab220/Pete146/eu.jpg
If you don't mind for my candlestick analysis, I think the most eu can go is at about 3580 (low of the 4h doji) but i reckon the breakout 4h which is at about 3540 will limit the upward exposure.. Just my 2 cents.
  • #11,563
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:43am Feb 7, 2011 9:43am
Have a look at eu 1h chart.

Look how low the volume is of the last 2 closed bars, compared to this time of day Friday and Thursday.
  • #11,564
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:48am Feb 7, 2011 9:48am
A NS was a bit easier to spot on a 4M just prior to that last low. Strength is back, and we've come up into Friday's low and bounced, also a current DTL - see the sellers take charge there. On the whole though, sellers are subsiding IMO, but we're soon going to get into lowering volume. 1.3508 was the first/crucial bounce area, but I fear 1.3493 may get visited. If that holds, there's a chance we go up to Asia's open. Decent buying on that last M5. Hopefully will be closing out the H1 at the high, potentially changing the trend; USDJPY looking to be heading down and reports place heavy selling into it's rise.

ES flyin' to 1321 so the correlation is off and the euro is out of favour. We're 110+ pips range on the day, and I don't feel the trend is predominantly down or that there is some driving force. It'd be nice to 5pm NY close above 1.3561 or right around there, which could give us a neutral/reversal doji on the daily. Still think we need to retest 1.359/1.36.
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  • #11,565
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:57am Feb 7, 2011 9:57am
daily hma just turned downwards... h1 hma is still bearish... only m15 is slightly suggesting it may turn bullish for a short time.
so far dips are deeper than rallies.
i think 3550 may have turned into resistance for now. very interesting day, price slipped lower on low volume, a healthy breakout isn't it


Quoting malcolmb14
well 5am is here and eu tested fridays lows with stopping volume and shake out on a 15 , looking for a test for entry and 1,3680 target next few hours.

If I do not get this and todays lows fail then 1,3480 is days range low , but with that clear buying in london I am looking for a buy into days range high 1.3680

Attachment
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #11,566
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:58am Feb 7, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Beljevina
A NS was a bit easier to spot on a 4M just prior to that last low. Strength is back, and we've come up into Friday's low and bounced, also a current DTL - see the sellers take charge there. On the whole though, sellers are subsiding IMO, but we're soon going to get into lowering volume. 1.3508 was the first/crucial bounce area, but I fear 1.3493 may get visited. If that holds, there's a chance we go up to Asia's open. Decent buying on that last M5. Hopefully will be closing out the H1 at the high, potentially changing the trend; USDJPY looking to...
Good stuff bro. Agreed on the UJ, seems like distribution is taking place. However, looking at daily and weekly, I still think if there's any rebound, it should be only a retracement for that pair, perhaps to high 81 area..
  • #11,567
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:01am Feb 7, 2011 10:01am
Quoting kave
I am not as optimistic as Malc view of targeting up to 1.4000 after having a look on those huge engulfing bars on Daily & weekly.

Anyway...my scenario for EU with Wyckoff bias analysis.

I am targeting 1.3760 & after seeing strong preliminary demand on 2 down move tested on X & Y levels as indicated. Expecting a shakeout on Y to spring price back up to Target level eventually. From here on We could see a wider H&S pattern which form the basis of the 1st secondary test on Wyckoff wave. We could be heading for further distribution...

Attachment ...
Looks like a spring on Y now. A NS after this would be nice too..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,568
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:07am Feb 7, 2011 10:07am
Quoting pete148
Have a look at eu 1h chart.

Look how low the volume is of the last 2 closed bars, compared to this time of day Friday and Thursday.
What are you reading into that? Remember, the actual volume levels are only one-third of VSA (assuming your liquidity provider normally provides good volume levels) - PA is currently showing strength and sellers subsiding. I would also suggest checking actual quantities & compare to my Citibank LP; the ultimate benchmark would be eSignal GTIS volumes.

I show the volume to be on par with every other day OTHER than Thursday (big fall) and Friday (post-NFP selloff) - but in both those cases the sellers were absorbed IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,569
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:11am Feb 7, 2011 10:11am
Quoting kave
Looks like a spring on Y now. A NS after this would be nice too..

Attachment
I like your analysis!
Where did you get these insights?
I would buy your chart
  • #11,570
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:27am Feb 7, 2011 10:27am
Seems like the aussie is testing the high of its range.. well if that fail, more downward pressure on fiber i guess..

Afterall, happy pippin guys.
  • #11,571
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:50am Feb 7, 2011 10:50am
Quoting A-speculator
Seems like the aussie is testing the high of its range.. well if that fail, more downward pressure on fiber i guess..

Afterall, happy pippin guys.
EU looks strong atm. Going up on good volume.
  • #11,572
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:55am Feb 7, 2011 10:55am
Quoting 1pipperhour
EU looks strong atm. Going up on good volume.
I reckon it's only a retracement, maybe up to 3580 area. However, my daily and weekly suggest that there will be more downside compared to upside.
  • #11,573
  • Feb 7, 2011 10:59am Feb 7, 2011 10:59am
Quoting A-speculator
I reckon it's only a retracement, maybe up to 3580 area. However, my daily and weekly suggest that there will be more downside compared to upside.
If the market goes to near 80 and we see supply overcoming demand, then we know foresure. But thanks for the heads up.

Always good to know what other traders with different styles are thinking.
  • #11,574
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:02am Feb 7, 2011 11:02am
check 2 hour if you got it.... nice 2 bar reversal under 1.3550 , still not got that test I was looking for..maybe tomorrow

Quoting Scrat
daily hma just turned downwards... h1 hma is still bearish... only m15 is slightly suggesting it may turn bullish for a short time.
so far dips are deeper than rallies.
i think 3550 may have turned into resistance for now. very interesting day, price slipped lower on low volume, a healthy breakout isn't it
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  • #11,575
  • Edited 11:14am Feb 7, 2011 11:04am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting pete148
If the market goes to near 80 and we see supply overcoming demand, then we know foresure. But thanks for the heads up.

Always good to know what other traders with different styles are thinking.
No problemo mate.. The thing is, we got a long tailed shooting star on weekly, and I see a new buying demand on the USD which suggest uptrend for swissy and UJ since last week. Furthermore, the aussie and kiwi has reached its top, and I reckon, there will be a move to the downside on that pair and also, the yen has already reached its bottom. To sum up, I think the overall, people are seeing a rebound in the economy by moving from a less risk assets to a higher yield assets. At least that's my personal view.

Regarding the EU move downtrend, I don't think that there is a problem in the euro zone, i think it's simply just because people are starting to "like" the USD atm. And simply because they think the recovery of the economy is just around the corner. Afterall, we are speculators and I tend to take advantage of what happening atm.
  • #11,576
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting A-speculator
No problemo mate.. The thing is, we got a long tailed shooting star on weekly, and I see a new buying demand on the USD which suggest uptrend for swissy and UJ since last week. Furthermore, the aussie and kiwi has reached its top, and I reckon, there will be a move to the downside on that pair and also, the yen has already reached its bottom. To sum up, I think the overall, people are seeing a rebound in the economy by moving from a less risk assets to a higher yield assets. At least that's my personal view.

Regarding the EU move downtrend, I don't...
eh the movement on EU in since Thurs has mainly been on eur strength/weakness rather than usd strength/weakness. just look at euro versus aussie, cad, yen. the european currencies are mainly the ones moving versus everything else, sterling, euro, franc are versus each other have been choppy as of late.
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  • #11,577
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm
nice inverted HS on M5, look at dropping volumes on M15 on the way down on right shoulder.
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  • #11,578
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:17pm Feb 7, 2011 12:17pm
monthly E/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ll.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #11,579
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:20pm Feb 7, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
eh the movement on EU in since Thurs has mainly been on eur strength/weakness rather than usd strength/weakness. just look at euro versus aussie, cad, yen. the european currencies are mainly the ones moving versus everything else, sterling, euro, franc are versus each other have been choppy as of late.
As I said, that's my personal view. I'm relating the down move with the bullishness on swissy which usually has some sort of relation/impact on fiber. Anyway, I'm not suggesting a change of trend on fiber, I just think that a major retracement already due on EU. Since there's a significant movement on swissy and top on aussie and kiwi, I think we might see some sort of retracement for both fiber and cable. I'm not suggesting a change of trend, at least not yet for both pairs. IMHO.

Cheers bro.
  • #11,580
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting A-speculator
As I said, that's my personal view. I'm relating the down move with the bullishness on swissy which usually has some sort of relation/impact on fiber. Anyway, I'm not suggesting a change of trend on fiber, I just think that a major retracement already due on EU. Since there's a significant movement on swissy and top on aussie and kiwi, I think we might see some sort of retracement for both fiber and cable. I'm not suggesting a change of trend, at least not yet for both pairs. IMHO.

Cheers bro.
I have serious doubts that aussie or kiwi has topped. EURUSD has still held a 3/8 retracement, we could see a rapid continuation of the trend. Counter-trend moves can last 3-4 days. The high vols in Thurs, Fri on EURUSD are really something. As malc noted, if they were sellers, why are we barely breaking below the day before's lows?

Retailers are still dollar long versus everything. They just haven't capitulated. And never call tops appropriately(I'm referring to the crowd). 4 days of eurodollar coming down and they are still net short... we haven't made an important top.
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