Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Printable Version

Attachments: vsa with Malcolm
Exit Attachments

vsa with Malcolm

Entered this USD/CHF trade Short, but had to exit to do some other things. I ended up taking a small loss. But there's so much to learn from this chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SD ProTrader 5.png Size: 144 KB
Trading is a loser's game-he who loses best wins.
Quoting Anotan
UCad gave me a bit of trouble, but it shaped up nicely. Bar A was a no demand up thrust.. just calling a no demand due to the small spread. Bar B they tried to run stops on bar A but barely touched the high. Loaded up on shorts on the way down from bar B. See ya at 1.2970! {image}
can you please explain more about stop run bar. how you see it in context? and what kind of background and current developing PA you looking for it to trade. Thanks in Advance
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Very nice. When price entered the Supply/Demand Zone and showed weakness, I said, "You can take a trade and take comfort you're not trading against Anotan." {image}
would you consider entering short trade on 1st ND because also touching the DeltaZone? if yes how and where you put the stop ? or you only trade when price enter the zone. thanks in advance
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
Quoting classix
{quote} can you please explain more about stop run bar. how you see it in context? and what kind of background and current developing PA you looking for it to trade. Thanks in Advance
This is what I'm seeing as the background. We know with climatic volume and how widespread the PA was on the US election bars that SM has a vested interest here and how price reacts to these bars will give us an idea on what they are up to.

I'm also a little biased because of AU weekly/monthly chart which I talked a bit about here. UC is the inverse of AU.

When I was stopped out on the stop run bar, I didn't know what was going to happen next. I didn't know if I was wrong or if it was a legitimate run for stops, the only thing I could do is wait. The following day when I started seeing that price wasn't going to push through the high of the stop run, and a test printed (Bar C), I had an idea that price was going to push down and through the test. Price started to push down and through the low of the test so I just kept selling.

**EDIT** Going back I think you're talking about the up thrust in late US session. The H4 background still applies I'm only looking for shorts on UC, and I had been selling all day. When there is an up thrust/shakeout the bar should be running the stops on traders who entered early. So when I saw the Up thrust I just looked left and saw the ND up thrust and had a good idea a lot of traders probably had their SL above that bar. Since the Up thrust was indeed running stops I saw it as an opportunity to sell.
With being stopped out and the 4% I took in losses from cutting positions on Monday I was up to 12% in losses on this trade in total, yesterday I did some TPing and got it down to 5% in losses.

Today doesn't make a lot of sense for shorts for me, we came back up to 1.3095 in Asia, which they've already shakeout out weak shorts once, which is the reason why I sold it hard late yesterday in US session.

Basically from here I'm done with the pair, I'm keeping what positions I do have open and seeing if it will drop, but I won't be adding anymore other than the ND I sold an hour and half ago.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1.png Size: 43 KB
Quoting HiddenGap
Entered this USD/CHF trade Short, but had to exit to do some other things. I ended up taking a small loss. But there's so much to learn from this chart. {image}
I think failed tested are my favorite signals to sell on, see them a lot.

But yeah, you found a really nice setup.
Quoting Anotan
I think failed tests are my favorite signals to sell on, see them a lot.
I really like Failed Tests as well. They are a powerful signal.

Another really good signal is No Result From a Test. It's a bit more advanced but not that hard to see. In this case, the Test is successful (the next interval is UP). However, if you see a dark (O>C) WRB in the next 1-5 intervals that closes below the low of the Test bar (preferably) or at least near the Test's bar low, this shows Supply is still present and thus you get no real result from the successful Test.

The USD/JPY has a good example of both.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SD ProTrader 6.png Size: 152 KB
Trading is a loser's game-he who loses best wins.
Quoting Anotan
{quote} This is what I'm seeing as the background. We know with climatic volume and how widespread the PA was on the US election bars that SM has a vested interest here and how price reacts to these bars will give us an idea on what they are up to. I'm also a little biased because of AU weekly/monthly chart which I talked a bit about here. UC is the inverse of AU. When I was stopped out on the stop...
thanks again for detailed answer and you covered both setups which i want to know about.
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
Quoting classix
[W]ould you consider entering short trade on 1st ND because also touching the DeltaZone? if yes how and where you put the stop ? or you only trade when price enter the zone. thanks in advance
Great questions. There's a lot to unpack here, but I will try to be brief.

On Zones:

For a trade signal to be valid, it needs to share at least one tic/pip with the Supply/Demand Delta Zone.

On Entry:

I find myself struggling with this one, but in general, most traders should start with a High, Ultra-High, or Climatic volume bar as part of their entry signal sequence.

Take a look at the picture below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SD ProTrader 8.png Size: 96 KB


I've updated it. Price moved from the Supply/Demand Delta Zone back into the Supply/Demand Delta Zone and then price fell through the Demand Zone rendering it closed. Which is why it is no longer shown on the chart.

But I've also updated the Relative volume indicator. Note that the volume bar (C) is a darker shade of blue. This alerts me that the volume is high. Which is defined as the largest amount of volume in the last 5 intervals. The reason to look for High, Ultra-High, or Climatic volume is that they represent intervals where the Smart Money is most active. They leave their footprints in the volume.

So I would argue that C is the place to start to look for a trade. Check out what happens on the very next interval (D). The volume is yellow alerting me that the volume is less than the previous 10 intervals. So the Smart Money became active and then their interest drop off precipitously.

Backing up for a second, It's a good idea, when looking to go short, to look for evidence of selling (Supply), followed by evidence of a lack of buying (Demand). Intervals C&D meet that notion.

Some might say, "HiddenGAP, the Zone was created on Climatic Volume (the volume bar is the darkest blue). Therefore the No Demand should be an entry based on what you've said."

My response is, you're technically correct and I probably would have entered there if I had not moved on to another chart when it occurred. I would have likely been stopped out and had to get back in. Therefore A could be an entry, but B can't because neither it nor its confirmation interval is not sharing a tick with the Supply Zone

But it is generally better to see a High, Ultra-High, or Climatic volume bar leading into the established Zone rather than using the High, Ultra-High, or Climatic volume of the WRB interval that creates the Zone.
Trading is a loser's game-he who loses best wins.
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Another really good signal is No Result From a Test.
That's amazing, thanks for pointing that out.

I'll make sure to put in some time training my eyes to see that.
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Great questions. There's a lot to unpack here, but I will try to be brief. On Zones: For a trade signal to be valid, it needs to share at least one tic/pip with the Supply/Demand Delta Zone. On Entry: I find myself struggling with this one, but in general, most traders should start with a High, Ultra-High, or Climatic volume bar as part of their entry signal sequence. Take a look at the picture below. {image} I've updated it. Price moved from the Supply/Demand Delta Zone back into the Supply/Demand Delta Zone and then price fell through...
Nice..totally agree with looking for High, Utra-High or Climatic volume intervals in zone combined with entry interval. Our SD delta zone has directional bias for short combined with volume. You don't consider 3 bars after SD delta zone is also a WRB (no WRB HG) high volume interval and directional bias of this interval is sideways or ranging or down move has stopped ? so we should only consider taking trades when price breaks or tests outside the range of this WRB interval (in other word FVB ) and look for entry signals. Interval before A was the first that dipped below that WRB interval's range with volume less than previous 2 could be test shakeout NS any name and interval A is failed test ND or UT confirming the sideways,indecision. Bar C of FVB setup is second that cleared the top range of WRB interval and also all intervals between C and said WRB. just my observations. thanks in advance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SD ProTrader 8.png Size: 105 KB
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
Quoting classix
{quote} Nice..totally agree with looking for High, Utra-High or Climatic volume intervals in zone combined with entry interval. Our SD delta zone has directional bias for short combined with volume. You don't consider 3 bars after SD delta zone is also a WRB (no WRB HG) high volume interval and directional bias of this interval is sideways or ranging or down move has stopped ? so we should only consider taking trades when price breaks or tests outside the range of this WRB interval (in other word FVB ) and look for entry signals. Interval before...
another one on your chart. your zones are great. i think i should revisit your old charts to know more. thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SD ProTrader 9.png Size: 128 KB
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • Post #33,613
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Dec 3, 2:05am (37 min ago) Dec 3, 2:05am (37 min ago)
Quoting Anotan
This goes in hand with my previous post about EC not being actively traded. Something that we don't talk about is the fundamental side.. Last week we had a major US election, FOMC and NFP all rolled into one week. With such major events it only makes sense the pros are going to be actively trading USD, its going to be the most volatile and we know that volatility is where the pros fill their orders. So with that, since we follow the pros footsteps it makes sense for the time being that we are watching USD pairs and pulling up weekly/monthly TFs...
AU has been crazy.. I still have a handful of these trades from .72.. Going to see if I can ride these to 0.8
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 73 KB
7 traders viewing now, 3 are members:
freemind
,
Anotan
,
13francisco