Pete's Forex Trading Journal

I liked to try to start my own journal on supply and demand, or basically support and resistance as it is commonly known in the trading world.

About me? I started trading maybe a year and a half ago and at first I started on the indicator path like most beginners. And like most I blew a few accounts, not big but enough to be more determine to succeed.

Where am I now? Well, I'm basically trading support and resistance taking from concepts from Sam Seiden, I just like the concept of why price moves and putting 1+1 together, basically means why price magically moves from support and resistance 'areas'. I trade with the trend and also I take counter trades too. I look at multiple time frames starting from monthly working down to smaller such as 5 min or 15 min to for entry and I usually wait for h4 to close before I take any action.

How am I doing? I think I'm doing ok but I get the feeling my trading is not efficient enough and I feel my education is missing some important holes. On average I take 20-40 pips a day but really I want to take trades that run and run. This is the real reason for me to start this journal and hopefully some pros on FF can help point out my many faults.

Well, that sounds like me. I'll keep an eye on this and comment if I feel I can add anything useful, but as we're following the same path I know that you've found the solution to the mysteries of life.

Good trading.

Hi Peter, I have recently read your helpful threads here on FF and I feel much more comfortable you're around. Thanks you

As a further note of what I want to achieve, I'm taking these bounce trades from S&R areas for x amount of pips intraday but what I would like to get are trades that high prob wins low risk trades that run. Now, I don't hold on for more than a day but maybe it's time I should change my mindset, wait for a trade, trading once or twice a day. Still lots of room for improvement.

I will get some charts in a few hours to show how I setup.

Just a couple of suggestions as I'm ploughing some new furrows myself.

With-trend trades, aim long term; contra-trend trades, aim short term. I know that sounds obvious but until recently I only ever traded with the trend (based on the Daily charts primarily) and am only just starting to think about contrarian trades.

I'm testing these new types of trades (contrarian) on demo to get a feel for the sort of stops I need to keep me in decent retracements but at the same time preventing too great a loss if the trend takes control. Just for now I play these with minimum positions irrespective of what number of lots my MM tells me I could use. This way I'm keeping the pressure off while getting a feel for a new style of trading for me.

I know a lot of people mark up SR lines by looking at past history and marking areas where price turns. I still haven't mastered this and to tell you the truth I'm not sure what to look out for when I did this. Occasionally I will leave a level up if I see price is strong there or whatever.

What I do is a little different. What I find interesting is why price would suddenly drop or jump from a certain point, keeps dropping then reverses to test the drop or jump area again before return on it original breakout direction. So I conclude and also from Sam's vids that there is a sudden rush of supply or demand for that currency (or whatever market as it is essentially the same principle).

So it makes sense for me to mark up these areas because these areas are highly probable areas the market will come back for testing, this area is where many traders are in profit.

What is testing? Well I have some theories

1. markets are controlled by gawd knows who, testing is essential to shake out traders and to test if there are buyers (or sellers) to sell in a rising market (for higher profitable prices) and vice versa.

2. To see who is in profit after a breakout (breakout traders mostly move stops to BE straight away) and zero them out before moving in the original breakout direction

Sorry if all this is old news to you guys and I certainly didn't want to make this a lesson. I just wanted you guys to know if I'm thinking on the right lines

Thank you Peter, yes it makes sense to hold longer for trends and less for contrarian trends (which for some reason I get greedy and normally get burnt).

A few more charts. Self explaining. Last from me until tomorrow when I get some time and I'll post more.

BTW some of these ideas aren't mine and credit due to all the guys who selflessly spent time showing what they know. Thanks!

I made a mess of this counter trend trade yesterday, I was looking for longs but turned out to be a short day.

Someone told me that higher TF is king but I paid too much attention to the h4 trend. I should have paid more attention to the daily then picked the short direction to trade.

Still need to learn more and be on the ball otherwise I might as well pack it in duh

Mmmm I understand why Pros ask you to write trading journals, if I wrote what I saw yesterday, yesterday, the direction to trade would have been as clear as day and up 100 odd pips by now .. could have, should have baaa

Time for me to run out and buy a blank journal

The chart shows my analysis and how I get my bias everyday. It is a monthly but it doesn't matter as it happens on all TF. Should be self explanatory.

Last one on how I trade. Again it doesn't matter on the TF as it is all relative.

Ok let starts today's analysis 19th Nov 2009

MONTHLY - BIAS UP

WEEKLY - NO CLEAR BIAS - see weekly chart

DAILY - BIAS UP - WHY? - overall trend is up and I see held profit from the short traders from yesterday

use lower TF for possible entries, see if I can show some lower TF entries

Maybe spoke too soon, market showing weakness still. This is where I get confused and flabbergasted when looking at lower TF.

H4 showing weak longs, if H4 closes below weekly supply (the blue area), short play is more possible, but daily is showing long bias??

Still some time, H4 close in 1hr 45min. Let the candle show the truth.

Ack, so much for my analysis!

20-11-09

Ack, hate Fridays, slow and no trading for a couple of days

Here is what i did yesterday

Market seems weak so once h4 candle pushed and closed below weekly supply, I looked for short positions on the h1.

My entry

1. I see wicks in loss, bodies in profit, I see h1 candles close below weekly supply
2. I see breakout with momentum
3. retrace into h1 supply, into big number
4. entry just below big number
5. move stop to h4 pivot when I woke this morning, it has reach my target 3:1 but will wait,

Not looking too weak now as I see wicks to the long side, never mind I will be patient

Today

Will post later, I want to see what will happen when Europe opens

took 24 hours to do it but closed around big number because of daily demand and h4 demand area so i expect a big bounce from here.

After nearly no bounce from Fri daily demand, I took profit and reentered short for the continuation down after H4 closed below demand. Overall a nice trading day despite it being Friday, about 10% gain on account.

Then, I saw the bounce up from the 1.64661 line in blue on the H4 so looking at the 15 min last night I entered long and locked in positive pips this morning since I think this up move is a correction (I think ???). Anyway, I'm just leaving with a H4 target in mind.

stopped moved up to last pivot

Nice long move closed.

Everything supporting a move down continuation down on the GU H4. GU daily has moved through 50% previous candle, now seems to moving towards weekly 50% line, may even head higher to daily support (orange) around 6653 before reversing. I just need to wait for some strong weakness in a closed H4 candle for confirmation for reversal if possible.

Ok, hoped for a bounce short on H4 50% line, did enter short on 5 min and moved to BE when I got the chance but moved against me.

I still have a short feel but I will wait to see what will happen when market moves to upper daily extreme at 6660, a nice funny number