Thanks
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
Optimized Trend Trading 1,244 replies
What's your TP? Fixed reward vs dynamic reward 5 replies
Risk Equation 2 replies
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As N -> Infinity; Expectancy via averaging up (Anti-Martingale) asymptotically approaches 1. It doesn't reach one, it approaches one..
With that piece of knowledge; I was able to come up with another system to break the 1 barrier.. Whats even better is I wrote out a math proof that it indeed breaks the 1 barrier...Ignored
DislikedJust some general stuff. Did you take random entries? Did you include transaction costs (I guess not, since it isn't necessarily relevant for finding the fundamental differences between martingale and anti-martingale)? How did you determine after how many pips you entered a subsequent position? And most importantly, what were the money management rules?
ThanksIgnored
DislikedTwoblink,
At the risk of making a fool of myself, I'd like to share some observations:
I noticed depending on the lot factor applied from one lot position (xA) to the next one (ephemeral C=Breakeven S/L), the proportion of yB-C (b) to yB-xA (a+b) always stays within 0.5 to 0.33.
Without going any further, may I ask if I'm actually on the right path here?
Appreciate your great contributions.
Claus
P.S. On a sidenote regarding the trendfans: how do you determine the ideal lookback period (zoomed-ness) per timeframe and currency pair?...Ignored
DislikedGreat thread, thanks Twoblink.
So just a question.....
Are you saying that you have the ability to turn a negative expectancy trade/system into a positive one?
If so, is that purely through MM/trade managment?
Or have i completely misunderstood the statement above.
CheersIgnored
DislikedTwoblink,
My experience with trading FX indicates, that past performance - be it entry/exit signals or MM - does not guarantee the same in the future. Using Kelly Ratio or expectancy calculations can be as arbitrary as anything else.
Everything boils down to the management of 2 factors:
1) Entry (or avg. price) and
2) Stop-Loss.
(Exits are either given by entry signals in the opposite direction or hitting stop-loss.)
Your avg. position and risk are always defined by those two and can be further "massaged" by managing further...Ignored