Weekly USDCAD, a rookie's view

Hi All,
I'm working on a long term strategy and would like to bounce my analysis of the Weekly USDCAD off the group. Any input or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Here's my forecast of the long term USDCAD -
The USDCAD has been in a overall down trend and pulled back to the fib 50.0%. After testing the 50.0% several times it failed to reverse and the downtrend continued.

It is now testing a key support level for the second time, which is also the fib 23.6%. If it break below the 23.6% it is likely to continue down and test the 1.0327 support. From there it may pull back to the 23.6% fib or continue down. Analysis at that level will be needed when the time comes.

Trade -
Short the USDCAD when price breaks below the 23.6% fib.
Short = 1.0700
Stop = 1.0880
Target 1 = 1.0327
Traget 2 = 0.9977
Target 3 = 0.9747

Read a report by Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy at RBS, where
he stated that whenever the spread on the 10-year US Treasury note
relative to the Fed's target rate reaches 4%, there is significant
interest in US debt by foreign investors and as such, the need for
dollars. In the last few months, according to the Treasury
Department, foreign investors have reduced purchases of long-term US
debt, which makes sense considering the level of the nations debt and
the continued issuance and forecast budget deficits. Almost 50% of US
debt is held outside the country which is up from 35% in 2000. If
foreigners are becoming less interested in US debt, then there is less
demand for dollars. I would be short USD for a long term view relative to most developed world currencies (ex-Japan).

That's what I am seeing, look at the USDCHF. It is almost a mirror image of the USDCAD. I am currently short with the USDCHF and have made around 200 pips in the last two days. I am watching it closely as it is currently hitting a key support level.

USDCHF is very similar now to USD index...it shows whole dollar market condition.