FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

Trader Sentiment Heading into NFP

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_15.png

In his weekly update on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), quantitative strategist David Rodriguez discussing the following:

 

1. EUR/USD - Euro May have Set Significant Low versus the Dollar
2. GBP/USD - British Pound Remains in Clear Downtrend
3. USD/JPY - US Dollar Might have Topped versus Yen
4. AUD/USD - Australian Dollar Remains a Sell until this Changes
5. NZD/USD - New Zealand Dollar Shows Signs of Turnaround
6. EUR/CHF - Euro Remains in Downtrend versus Swiss Franc

Live Webinar on Price Action + Super-Tight Spreads

This Wednesday, FXCM will be hosting a live webinar on Price Action, a trading technique that can help you read the market and make trading decisions from chart-based price movement, rather than relying on indicators. You will also learn how you can use our super-tight raw FX spreads in combination with a Price Action strategy.

http://i.imgur.com/gk8W0tr.jpg
In some instances, accounts for clients of certain intermediaries are subject to a markup.

This live webinar will be offered at 3 different times this Wednesday.

1. Price Action Webinar at 07:00 GMT - click here reserve your place
2. Price Action Webinar at 13:00 GMT - click here reserve your place
3. Price Action Webinar at 17:00 GMT - click here reserve your place

Candlestick Pattern Identifier (Beta Testing, Need Feedback)

FXCM's programming services team has created a new indicator which identifies candlestick patterns. Before we release it on the FXCM App Store, we would like to give members of this forum exclusive access during the beta period. Any feedback you can provide in return, whether you love it or hate it, would be greatly appreciated!

The app is designed to scan for the following candlestick patterns:

1. Hammer
2. Inverted Hammer
3. Shooting Star
4. Hanging Man
5. Doji
6. Spinning top
7. Bearish Engulfing
8. Bullish Engulfing
9. Dark Cloud Cover
10. Piercing Line
11. Bearish Harami
12. Morning Star
13. Evening Star

Here's an example of the indicator scanning for Morning Star and Evening Star candlestick formations.

http://www.forex-tsd.com/images/impo...014/11/145.jpg

Step 1: Download & Install the Indicator
Click Here to download the indicator. The zip file downloaded contains a PDF with instructions on how to set it up. You simply need to double click the FXCM_Candlestick_Patterns.exe file to begin installation.


Step 2: Add the Indicator to a Chart
This indicator is available exclusively on FXCM's Trading Station desktop platform. Once installation is complete, the indicator will be located in the indicators list in the Marketscope charts on the Trading Station desktop platform.

Russian Ruble Plummets and Here’s How We Might Trade the Clear Trend


UPDATE: Central bank of Russia raised its short-term interest rate to 17% in a bid to "stem devaluation, inflation risks."


David Rodriguez of DailyFX.com says "If the Central Bank of Russia is unable to stop further USD/RUB rallies via interest rate hikes and interventions, we believe that the Russian government will effectively halt speculation on the domestic currency.

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"If a trader is holding a position in the USD/RUB or any other RUB-based pair, this could mean that trades would be closed at a significantly unfavorable rate—likely causing losses for those on either side of the trade."


In light of these risks, David Rodriguez discusses alternatives to trading the ruble directly in his article today.

Russian Ruble Tumbles Further - Holding RUB Positions Far too Risky

In a follow up to his comments on the Russian ruble yesterday, David Rodriguez had this to say in his article today:

"The risks of capital controls were a key reason we would avoid trading the Ruble and instead shifted our focus to other Emerging Market currencies—notably the Mexican Peso, South African Rand, and even the oil price-sensitive Norwegian Krone. Thus far the correlation has held fairly well as these currencies tumbled alongside the Ruble.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png

"If a trader believes the Russian Ruble will continue lower against the US Dollar, we believe that he or she would be better served trading proxies in other emerging market currencies."

US Dollar Likely to Rally Further as Trader Sentiment at Extremes

The US Dollar continues to register highs versus the Euro and British Pound, and the latest Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) readings favor further USD gains against the majors until this changes. SSI compares the number of long positions to the number of short positions. Positive values indicator more of the former, while negative values indicate more of the latter.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

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For example, in the table above, SSI for EUR/USD is 1.42 which means there are 1.42 long positions for every short position. By contrast, SSI for NZD/USD is -1.09 meaning there are 1.09 short positions for every long. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator, the signal is to place a trade in the opposite direction from the majority.

USD/JPY Threatens Opening Range- Sub 118 Targets In View

Paul Robinson of DailyFX Research has identified head-and-shoulders topping potential in SPX500.

SPX500 4-hr Chart: Oct 2014 to Jan 2015

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_1.png

 

1. Testing neckline at 2000
2. Target potential below 1900

Implications for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP after SNB Floor Collapses

The FXCM Apps team has released a new directional volume indicator for the Trading Station Desktop platform. The indicator is already in the mobile app and you can install it direction into Trading Station Desktop if you want to access it before the next Trading Station update.

Here's a look at the EUR/USD volume on the news of the ECB proposing QE of 50 billion euros per month through 2016. Directional volume was skewed towards the short side, and the indicator will give you insight as to which way volume is flowing.

http://i.imgur.com/33TtHmh.jpg

Here's where you can download the indicator ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting http://www.fxcmapps.com/trading-stat...l-real-volume/

A big long term trend line to watch in EUR/AUD pointed out by Jeremy Wagner of DailyFX. Here's his chart:

http://i.imgur.com/Mff9PA7.jpg

EUR/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored- 1.1300 in Focus

Check out this chart. Shows you just how strong the dollar is getting, now testing the highs from the 2009 financial crisis.

Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index

Volume Analysis Tools

A busy couple of days for FXCM traders as EUR/USD volume exceeds 5 yards on EUR/USD as you can see in the screenshot below. Please remember that Greek elections take place this Sunday which could cause significant volatility for the Euro.

http://i.imgur.com/RfkyIYs.jpg

This real volume indicator along with additional features will be included in the next release of the Trading Station desktop platform. You may have previously received an email about the update a few weeks ago, but it was delayed in order to get more feedback about the new features. The new version of the platform is now available from the website, and the forced update is expected to launch on February 6. If you want to update to the newest version, simply re-install the platform from the installation link on our website http://help.fxcm.com/Software-Download/. Please remember to save any chart or platform layouts before re-installing the platform.

This update includes the real volume indicator displayed above already install, plus additional market behavior indicators including Directional Real Volume, Market Movers Index (real volume / transactions per period), and On Balance Volume to name a few of the new features. Here’s directional real volume for example:

http://i.imgur.com/dOg1v7c.jpg

As always, any feedback on the update is appreciated.

Have a great weekend!

Jason

hi Jason,

how can i download the real volume indicator

tks

Hi pm.fx,

If you install (or re-install if already installed) the Trading Station desktop platform from our website, the platform will already contain the volume indicator. Here is the link to install http://help.fxcm.com/Software-Download/. After installing, look in the indicator list. The indicator can also be downloaded and installed separately from the FXCM Apps website here http://www.fxcmapps.com/trading-stat...ns-indicators/.

If you use Trading Station mobile, you can find the volume indicators already accessible in the indicator list.

Jason

Traders are short EUR/USD as we head into today's FOMC meeting and announcement at 2:00pm ET.

http://i.imgur.com/C7Dze3P.jpg

Here's a strategy video from John Kicklighter explaining his outlook for the dollar and the markets ahead of the FOMC decision.

A substantial shift in retail FX trader sentiment warns that the US Dollar may have set an important top.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...Picture_15.png

DailyFX Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez discusses the currencies and potential trades he's watching.



The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is reported every Thursday at DailyFX.com and twice every trading day inside DailyFXplus.com.

EURJPY Looking For Higher Ground

By Paul Robinson

 

1. EURJPY maintaining an upward bias (trend support) since capitulation lows
2. Triangle on the 4-hr time-frame
3. Targeting 13700 – 13760 on a break above top-side trend-line

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...dy_eurjpy0.png