I'm looking for an entry that has a 90% or better success rate. I've grown tired of losing trades
Suppose I have a system/method I've developed that has a risk:return of 33:165. And I feel I can get a 90% win ratio.
So I backtest methodically... for 27,000 events!
I work the testing conservative... assuming I won't fill unless the gap is ~2 pips and I can't close unless the gap is ~2 pips...
My win/loss ratio turns out to be ~91%
My win/loss ratio turns out to be >> 91% when I begin live trading... 95+% over 170 trades....
What is my confidence.... I don't remember what to punch in from my college statistics class.... but what are my chances of maintaining 91% based on that history? Any probability experts???
90x33 = 2970
10x(-165) = (-1650)
Suppose I have a system/method I've developed that has a risk:return of 33:165. And I feel I can get a 90% win ratio.
So I backtest methodically... for 27,000 events!
I work the testing conservative... assuming I won't fill unless the gap is ~2 pips and I can't close unless the gap is ~2 pips...
My win/loss ratio turns out to be ~91%
My win/loss ratio turns out to be >> 91% when I begin live trading... 95+% over 170 trades....
What is my confidence.... I don't remember what to punch in from my college statistics class.... but what are my chances of maintaining 91% based on that history? Any probability experts???
90x33 = 2970
10x(-165) = (-1650)
Mine?