kore trading (work in progress)

Developing or rather refining my trading method; will document some live trades here as well as general thought process.

I have been trading, mostly on demo accounts, for two years; after the first year I was able to double my account balance every few weeks so decided to go live. Of course with that kind of attitude/expectation, by now I have blown out two accounts for a net loss of $2700; now I'm on the third time's a charm program and making steady gains on a $1000 deposit. If things continue to go well I will slowly add more funds to this account but currently I am focusing on consistency and on not being stupid, impatient, greedy, aggressive or hasty.

I am not going to go into all the details of my method, first because I don't know if anyone is even interested, second because it is still being fleshed out as I gain more experience. I hope that by posting here, it will help me be more thorough in defining my method, and maybe other people can benefit too in some way.

I am trading primarily the Daily charts, looking to the Weekly for context and using the 4H, 1H and 15M for timing entries and exits.

I use custom indicators because I enjoy creating them not because they give me an "edge". I do prefer to trade using a few indicators because it gives me more confidence in my decisions, less room to second guess or make dumb calls. I see them as training wheels, or crutches, not the special sauce. I went through the phase of trying every indicator under the sun and always came back to Stoch, RSI, LWMA and Linear Regression lines. In addition I use "the chart" including S&R levels, channels, candlestick formations and trend lines to get a feel for what is going on at any given moment in time. However I don't usually draw these things onto the chart, they are just seen visually and mentally taken into account.

I entered a trade earlier today, short on the pound (attaching a chart). Judging from how this pair has been moving the past few months, I expect to hold this trade for 2-5 days. I will be ad-libbing the exit as this is one area I don't have down pat quite yet. I am working on holding trades for longer than I normally would (days instead of hours).

My complete method has three components including an intra-day and a scalping strategy, however for the moment I am stepping back to the daily timeframe and refining my long term strategy, as the shorter term ones really depend on the strength of the long term strategy for their success (since I only trade in one direction at any given time). And in general, if you take trades on the 15M chart without having a crystal clear view of what is happening on the daily, you will have mixed success and eventually get eaten by the market. At least this has been my experience.

So basically I will be checking in with my trades a few times per day as I have time, mostly to move my stop loss and or TP levels. I may post here from time to time especially if anyone expresses interest.

This one looked like a good setup so I entered short @1.5 -- although if I followed my rules more strictly I would have ended up with a slightly better position at around 1.5025.

SL: 1.52
TP: 1.45

These will be tightened as the trade progresses. The weekly is showing a slight up-trend, but we are near the top of the channel so the trade has some room to move.

stopped out... i'll catch it on the way back down... if it comes back down! next week maybe

I like losing trades because I learn the most from them.

Apart from the fact that action on G/U yesterday was bizarre (especially given news announcements which "should" have given strength to the dollar), what I am taking away from this trade is the following.

While it's all fine and good to take a step back and put more attention on larger timeframes, entering into a trade with a preconception that it will be a long term trade locks me into a rigid mindset, which is not conducive to successful trading. I really could have gotten out of that trade much earlier, and would have if I was not locked into the idea of a long-term trade.

While my entry was not bad, it should have been treated as a short-term trade until the position proved itself on the 15M and 1H charts.

Part of what I need to work out is that I have a bundle of different strategies for different market conditions (ranging, trending, deep trend, breakout) and do not always apply the correct strategy, usually on account of wishful thinking or having an expectation that the market will behave in a certain way. For example, here I was anticipating a trend reversal while this had not yet been confirmed on the chart. So the remedy is solidifying my trading rules (part of what this journal is for) and making the mind ever more neutral.

Here is a chart of my entry on the 1H, which although not bad, should not have been treated like a long term trade. In that case, I would have probably gotten out at around breakeven, and might have even caught some of the northbound train.

So, mindset adjustment in progress, and more practice on vHands...

I have been taking some short-term trades with success, on EJ and GU.

I did some more testing, scrapped the moving pivot lines, and solidified my trading rules somewhat.

This is a basic trend-following strategy, like so many others, and has a lot in common with MTF stochastic strategies available here on FF.

Basically I look for a well-defined trend on the Weekly, Daily and 4H charts, and trade retracements on the 15M; if the 1H follows suit, I may stay in a trade longer, otherwise exit based on the 15M reversing direction. If things are moving slowly or looking uncertain, I will usually exit for a few pips gain.

I am putting a proper long-term strategy on the backburner, as I have had very mixed success with it so far, I do better with the short trades lasting an hour or two on average, it allows me to be more consistent.

Here is an example: The weekly and daily both showing a downward tendency, the 4H showing a yellow bar (indicating possible reversal), and below the 50 line. 1HR also pointing down. 15M retraced above the 50 line, then resumed the trend. Good for 100 pips.

Based on my rules, I could have stayed in this trade longer (based on action on the 1HR chart)... I was being overly cautious maybe?

I rewrote the moving pivots indicator.. it does help keep the system out of riskier positions, and can be useful for setting TP levels. I'm also using a longer period on it now (48).

I wrote a MTF version of the main indicator, so all TFs can be seen at once without flipping back and forth between charts. Also it now has four bar colors instead of 3, a different color each for ranging up and ranging down, trending up and trending down. I don't know what to call this indi, or if anyone else is using this combo of RSI and Stoch? For now it is Kore Strength or KSI.

I am experimenting with 30M-4H-1D-1W in addition to (instead of) 15M-1H-4H-1D time frames. Sometimes the 15M chart gives better signals, other times it is rather noisy, and I'm starting to lean towards the 30M variant.

Obviously I'm switching back to demo trading while these changes are all worked out.

Looking back at the trade posted at the beginning of this thread, I would not have entered it in the first place, it was not a strong enough signal, especially with my new/firmer rules and updated indis. One of my weaknesses as a trader has been a tendency to try to anticipate trend reversals, or catch them right as they're happening. I think I am pretty much broken of the habit now, but time will tell!

I read through a bunch of the TEB system thread (the 30M-4H MTF Stoch one). So much good stuff on FF. The system being developed has a lot in common with that one, especially now that I'm considering switching to his preferred time frames.

Main differences would be that KSI treats Stoch signals differently when they disagree with RSI, and I'm using the moving pivots to filter out riskier trades / identify better opportunities. This combines elements of a trend-following and a counter-trend strategy, while generally staying out of choppy markets (i.e. if stoch and rsi disagree on two or more TFs, no trades will be taken).

Testing on EU, EJ, UJ !

Also working independently on a breakout system robot. For now the scalping robots will be left chugging away on my account...

Good trading day, I would not trade like this if I had a larger account, but I actually made 40% profit today, which makes up for last Friday's loss and then some.

-Grabbed some pips on this morning's "big dog" G/U breakout.
-Caught some of the EURCHF spike.
-And entered this trade with fairly heavy positions: two entries here, and no exit yet, although I got out since it is Friday afternoon...

The first entry was made at 145.07 (a little late) and the second at 145.31, on the bars indicated. I also averaged down about midway between the two arrows, as I was fairly confident in the downward move. This decision was based FTIs "rescue operation" (see "technical analysis fallacy" thread). I don't follow his MO exactly, but like to execute a rescue when I am confident in the trade direction. I took out the original (weaker) position for a small profit on the way back down.

hi,
i recently discovered jjmaseries articles and i think it should be usefull to use these series for better noiseless decisions.

As a good channel detection , i use i-Regr (indicator) & e-Regr (ea, but need more work & rewrite with more options, inits ...)

This week's stats. I don't think I'll trade today, or next Monday.

Robots (12 trades)
P: $50.84
L: $75.54

Human (9 trades)
P: $217.05
L: 0

I am thinking of decommissioning one of the robots (which was responsible for 90% of losses taking two bad trades against the euro rally). The same robot was responsible for most of last week's losses.

This amounts to 17% account growth this week, and no stupid mistakes on my part (two weeks in a row!)

I am getting better at waiting for only the best setups, but still missing most of them...

Hi dinofx, thanks for posting, I had to look up "jjmaseries" and found Nikolay Kositsin's article and library... The JMA is nice, but a bit over the top I think. I wrote an adaptive double-LWMA a while ago to see if I could come up with something "like" the JMA, without all the complex filtering. I wasn't totally satisfied with it but here is a screenshot of it (blue) compared to JMA (red) both with a period of 20. A normal LWMA20 (green) shown for comparison.

Now I have an idea how to improve it...

I also like LR channels a lot... but I see i-Regr has parabolic and "wavy" channels too -- I'll be checking it out! I have wanted something like that, but was a little daunted to try and code it. Thanks for the tip....

hi, thanks for appreciation, i'm experimenting with high success an embeded i-regr method: I plot 1 i-regr with 200 bars setting on the chart , then i plot an other one with 100 bars. Amazing results with mtf pivots for bouncing: when both i-regr are close it's time to take place !!!

What degree have you been having most success with... I find anything above 4 is pointless, but degrees 1-4 each have a purpose... in different market conditions... I am thinking of modifying this indicator so that it draws past values on the chart, instead of the full channel for the current bar -- since we are really interested in the current value at any given point in time rather than the whole channel.

Simply looking for candlestick reversal patterns on a daily or 4H chart near the outside of the channel looks very promising...

Thanks again for sharing... this is an indicator I used to wish for, since a straight LR can give bad results in the wrong kind of market. And I don't really like MA-based channels (or MAs in general).

I have the following "free trades" open and running:

GBPJPY
Long @ 149.96
SL 150.85
TP 152.00

Long @ 149.89
SL 150.25
TP -

USDCAD
Short @ 1.1233 (late entry)
SL 1.1220
TP -

I spent half of last night engaged in a skirmish on GBPJPY - 15 positions, no losers, vying for the two positions that have been left open.

So I am up about 20% on my account and sitting on some nice spots.

I don't recommend anyone trade like me, unless you're willing to blow out a few accounts along the way, but I think I may be over that phase - time will tell!

This will be the first time I have doubled a live account in value (have done it on demo several times)...

TP hit on first trade (200+ pips)

Moved SL on second GBPJPY position to 151.00

Loonie still running.

Scalping robot banked some profit too.

Looks like May will be a > 100% profit month. I need to double my account balance again before hitting my breakeven point (recapturing all capital that has been sunk into forex). My goal is to do this by end of July, which will be about 1 year since first live trade was taken. Bearing in mind only 1/3 of the year will have actually been spent trading, I'd consider breaking even my first year a success.

Afterwards, my first five MM "steps" are 20k, 60k, 120k, 200k, 300k... Each step should take about a year.

By that time I also aim to have my PT "five flags" established...

I added onto the USDCAD position @ 1.1156, and moved the stoploss for both positions to the average breakeven point @ 1.1195.

GBPJPY still running with the same SL.

I decided to close all positions, as GBPJPY bounced off 153.0 (good for 300 pips) and USDCAD bounced off 1.1100.

So this makes approx 130% profit this month...

I was lucky to catch a few bigger moves, and am getting better at waiting for only the best setups, although I need to improve more in this area. S&R levels on the higher timeframes are becoming my #1 "indicator"...

I have posted my MM method in Trading Discussion. Currently using around 16:1 true leverage, which I divide into 3-5 trades as I like to scale in/out using several positions.

Missed a really nice setup 4H ago on USDCAD, but got into this one long EURJPY @ 136.61 (after about 5 requotes at the opening of the candle). I almost put the order 30 seconds before the close of the previous candle, but decided to wait (bad call). But looking good.

Reasons for entering above trade:

Price retraced close to center line during a strong up-trend (also bounced off 136.00 several times); engulfing candle followed by trigger signal.

Will be watching closely how price interacts with prior resistance around 137 - 137.25

I had moved my stop to just above breakeven, and it got taken out... no worries, that's better than taking a loss, and I'm still up about 10% so far this week.

If I would have followed my gut and put on the position before the opening of the bar, I would still be in this trade.

Price bounced down off the 8-month high 137.4... I considered taking profit on half the position around that point, but decided against it... bad call?

I am taking this one as a divergence trade. (Price is slightly up, but rsi trigger is significantly lower than previous wave.)
Also the resistance area just above 137 proved itself and may hold for now.
Price is above the center line, so has some room to move, however this is against the trend, so will be cautious.

Entered short @ 136.8