How you act is more important than how you feel.
bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies
Sharing: I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through 42 replies
sharing Ken Chow super structure method 0 replies
Sharing my trading method 4 replies
Sharing a method which has been profitable so far 46 replies
DislikedDoes sharing your method blunt your edge or is the market so big it won't make a difference?Ignored
DislikedDepends on your method I suppose.
A real honest to goodness trader’s edge should provide you with a way of looking at capital markets to discover inefficiencies. Sharing the edge you actually have is gold, but seldom is anyone interested in trying to understand what makes you profitable. So you can share it all day long and it doesn’t make the slightest difference to your profit. When one inefficiency dries up, you can use your edge to locate another one with little difficulty.
Pointing out the inefficiencies will usually destroy their profitability in short order. For an example you can look at news trading. Up until about 6 months ago, there was a gaping hole in Oanda's execution system which allowed a trader to get guaranteed fills on orders during an announcement. A small group of people were making some serious bank exploiting the hole until a few idiots decided they needed to prove to the world how smart they were by showing everyone else how it was done. The army of people flowing into the trade led to a widening of spreads and the death of that inefficiency. I imagine people still make some money trading the news, but not in the same way and the profit is nothing like it used to be.
Most systems being traded have no component of inefficiency to them and as such, no real edge. Almost all of the moving average and other derivative indicator based systems fall under this category. Some methods can be shown to be statistically profitable looking at historical data, but very seldom are they much better then chance (1-5%). Given a large enough sample of data they almost all break down. The reason for this is that the underlying order flow these systems need to win isn't generated by these systems. The likelihood of even 3 traders looking at the same combination of indicators and trading them exactly the same way is almost nil. The moral of this story is that sharing these systems will often have the effect of INCREASING their profitability (albeit marginally) because the effect on the order flow of more people trading at the same time in the same way causes the system to work. Unfortunately the most likely traders of these systems are novices and seldom follow the system exactly or for very long.
Fibs and long term (1hr+) price action system work for the same reason indicator systems fail. The concepts are SO pervasive within the trading community that the core patterns almost always generate order flow that helps them to work. A breakout doesn't work because it's a breakout, but because many people see the breakout and act in the same way. It's with these types of systems that exits become the critical component to success. Lots of people are entering at the breakout, but only the successful have back tested/forward tested different exit rules to determine the probabilities for the best exit. This data provides the winners their edge. It's a smaller edge then an arbitrage situation may provide, but it is still tradable for a decent enough profit.
It's for this reason you find a lot of information about entries but very little for exits. If the exits are what provide the edge, sharing that information will hand a portion of that edge over to someone else. Enough some ones and the profits are gone.
So to make a long explanation short, if the system you’re trading actually has an edge, sharing it will be detrimental for you. If it doesn’t have an edge, share away because it may actually improve it.
Ohh, and if you do manage to find a real market inefficiency, do yourself and those who are already trading it the courtesy of keeping your mouth shut about it. The shiny red Ferrari it will buy you will boost your ego for much longer then the complements of your trading peers.
Luck be with you.Ignored
DislikedIf anyone here is under some impression that anything we do here would have any effect on the market or the way we trade, or that even if we as a whole group here got together as one... could make some kind of difference in the market.. well then, I say you clearly have no idea of how big the market really is and who and what really makes it move...
I laugh those hew who don't want to share their """secret""" systems and ways of trading... as if it would make some difference in their profits...
Instead we should all share whatever we can... we are all here to learn to make money in forex... there is lots of money to go around... there is more being added everyday... it is the truly generous who have shared some of the info and helped others to learn, who have had more wealth added to them... and if you have shared, your share will surely come around...
I sincerely thank all those who have stopped and taken a minute to share things with me from this forum... I doubt that anyone of them has lost a cent by helping me or taking time for me...
Yet because of them, I now have a system, a way of trading that hopefully will be profitable... we will see... if any of you see your profits lessen because of me.. let me know...Ignored
DislikedIf anyone here is under some impression that anything we do here would have any effect on the market or the way we trade, or that even if we as a whole group here got together as one... could make some kind of difference in the market.. well then, I say you clearly have no idea of how big the market really is and who and what really makes it move...
I laugh those hew who don't want to share their """secret""" systems and ways of trading... as if it would make some difference in their profits...
Instead we should all share whatever we can... we are all here to learn to make money in forex... there is lots of money to go around... there is more being added everyday... it is the truly generous who have shared some of the info and helped others to learn, who have had more wealth added to them... and if you have shared, your share will surely come around...
I sincerely thank all those who have stopped and taken a minute to share things with me from this forum... I doubt that anyone of them has lost a cent by helping me or taking time for me...
Yet because of them, I now have a system, a way of trading that hopefully will be profitable... we will see... if any of you see your profits lessen because of me.. let me know...Ignored
DislikedIf anyone here is under some impression that anything we do here would have any effect on the market or the way we trade, or that even if we as a whole group here got together as one... could make some kind of difference in the market.. well then, I say you clearly have no idea of how big the market really is and who and what really makes it move...Ignored
DislikedHold on there before you make that statement!
My students are forex traders for their respective banks, and they move, with a push of a button, about $300M USD. That's not much in forex you say? Try it in the Asia opening (I'm in Taiwan) and watch them move the market..Ignored
Dislikedwell...why? It totally depends on whom you share the system with.Ignored
DislikedThis is Forex, Borker Style, If anyone or any group hits a single Borker Hard with a particular direction, what do you expect him {the Brkr} to do. Of course he will adjust HIS pricing effectivly confirming You have Moved the market. Now I ask that you to think about this, Borker 'B' didn't get the same Order but notes that Borker 'A' just moved his price/spread. What should He do? Move to Comply or sit where he is knowing he is at a Vending @ a Discount.
Consider this, Borker 'A' gets pushed into a Major Lot Play and adjusts his spread accordingly. Borkers 'B', 'C' & 'D' figure, "I aint movin." What tf does 'A' do now? Yes. He get's back in line. If you are hitting a Borker to the extent that he has to {and does} "Move HIS Market" ....
Sounds like a two stage play to me....Ignored