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Silent Service Method

  • #13,081
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:58am Sep 21, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Soca
Where? (Haha.) I'm guessing the "strictly theoretical" difference would be that they have an oasis of limited oil, but we have global reserves in unlimited dollars... er, something. So how's about them foodstuffs?

Well, the Arab countries were subsidizing the price of wheat for their people, and when they couldn't afford to it anymore - this threw gas on the fire. I think this trend of higher food prices continues for the foreseeable future. The poor always get the shaft in the end, and I don't expect this to be any different.
  • #13,082
  • Edited 1:42pm Sep 21, 2011 1:23pm | Edited 1:42pm
It's been a while since I posted here. Here is a level I was watching, put a buy limit this morning. Not filled yet. Looks like we are going up without me. If I am not filled by the end of the week, I will cancel my order.

Kulu

Edit: Nevermind, I just got filled.
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  • #13,083
  • Sep 21, 2011 2:58pm Sep 21, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting kulu
It's been a while since I posted here. Here is a level I was watching, put a buy limit this morning. Not filled yet. Looks like we are going up without me. If I am not filled by the end of the week, I will cancel my order.

Kulu

Edit: Nevermind, I just got filled.

I'm on the other side of this trade. Try not to send it up too high if you would. How about them Buckeyes K? Out of the top 25 for the first time in ages......
  • #13,084
  • Sep 21, 2011 3:01pm Sep 21, 2011 3:01pm
Is the USD/CAD finally making up it's mind? The 1.0000 to 1.0050 level was massive resistance, and we are going through it at the moment. This could be pretty big......

Oil was weak again in the trading today......things could get nasty if we aren't careful.
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  • #13,085
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:44pm Sep 21, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
I'm on the other side of this trade. Try not to send it up too high if you would. How about them Buckeyes K? Out of the top 25 for the first time in ages......

My third spot trade of the year and I am already down. I have my stop in and the risk is within my tolerance. We will see. I still think it's a good trade.

Yes, Chris, the Buckeyes stunk up the joint on Sat against Miami. Our offense was bad. However, to prove how bad Miami is, we were still in the game until that last fumble.

Kulu
  • #13,086
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:37pm Sep 21, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well, the Arab countries were subsidizing the price of wheat for their people, and when they couldn't afford to it anymore - this threw gas on the fire. I think this trend of higher food prices continues for the foreseeable future. The poor always get the shaft in the end, and I don't expect this to be any different.
Yes, I agree. As we've been saying the commodities play goes hand-in-hand with stocks the world over; "Arab Spring" is a good example of why it's working and will continue to work. Regarding the poor, when I take my "trader hat" off and return to humanity, every time I hear some government official, industry or talking head rallying hard for "growth" I get the urge to punch'em in the mouth...

Otherwise where we slightly disagree is on which asset will be the lead horse in the rally. You say commodities, I say stocks for the simple reason that without companies/industries who convert the raw material into finished product, commodities risk becoming a greater liability in the long-run. Thus, their stocks have greater market value, but that obviously doesn't negate the underlying assets' or commodity value in real terms. So I say the major indices (particularly the U.S. DOW/S&P) are set to rally on those microeconomics - Blue Chips - nothing smaller.

Gold is so far the only real commodity exception to stocks for me on that point because of its leverage in fiscal terms. Central banks have reportedly been stock piling it in droves for over-a-year-now. If/when they convert it will be for the purpose of controlling other natural resources, however indirectly in their struggle to maintain "order." Of course gold doesn't appreciate in monetary value because it bears no interest rate differential like paper, but that's always been its power... The same could be said for other precious metals, but most, if not all are "industrial metals." So they aren't "pure as gold" to me.

Speaking of industrial metals, I think silver is another great bid from $28-30/oz. to hold long-term. That's my target, actually. Anyone care to trade with me on that price?

Aaron
  • #13,087
  • Sep 21, 2011 7:33pm Sep 21, 2011 7:33pm
Anyone else interested in buying this?

1) Uptrend
2) Nice round number (80)
3) Previous resistance area (multiple times)
4) 50% FIB

Price action is far from bullish yet obviously......
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  • #13,088
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:06pm Sep 21, 2011 10:06pm
As a rule for the next three-to-six months I wouldn't be long anything against the USD, unless you're scalping intraday of course. That said I think everyone of you ought seriously consider revising your entries down five big 00's or up five on the majors, if you're thinking of going short/long USD respectively. (Perhaps that forecast is wrong, but it doesn't matter... Having a winning attitude matters.)

So just imagine going to the supermarket and there on the shelf you have some USD. The question to ask, "Is it closer to wholesale or retail prices here-and-now?" You do it in real life, so, what makes you think this is any different? If you can't confidently answer that question, then keep looking to get a better idea of what those prices would be - you know - "a price range."

A more advanced trade would be to trade into the levels from here for the eventual reversal, but do you know what you're doing? For most of you, probably not, if you're on this thread or virtually any other on FF. No offense... This method is primarily reaction based. Doing it according to textbook you wait for price to go the level and bounce, then get in if conditions warrant. It's very safe, consistent and profitable if done correctly.

Have fun!
Aaron
  • #13,089
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:12pm Sep 21, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting Soca
Yes, I agree. As we've been saying the commodities play goes hand-in-hand with stocks the world over; "Arab Spring" is a good example of why it's working and will continue to work. Regarding the poor, when I take my "trader hat" off and return to humanity, every time I hear some government official, industry or talking head rallying hard for "growth" I get the urge to punch'em in the mouth...

Otherwise where we slightly disagree is on which asset will be the lead horse in the rally. You say commodities, I say stocks for the simple reason...
Fair enough, but no....I am not selling Silver at all.......I don't know if you trade spot silver through CFDs or something - or the real contracts in the futures markets. The futures contracts will make you puke with the volatility and account balance swings.....
  • #13,090
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:15pm Sep 21, 2011 10:15pm
Quoting mypipbull
Anyone else interested in buying this?

1) Uptrend
2) Nice round number (80)
3) Previous resistance area (multiple times)
4) 50% FIB

Price action is far from bullish yet obviously......
IF we get a pinbar, it would be interesting for a trade.....but the last time we bounced from here, we made a lower high. I think the days of the NZD are starting to become limited. I think something changed today, with the Fed's negative outlook.....but of course only time will tell. But there are a lot of stock markets around the world that have been falling. (Asia is looking horrible) I think the US markets are about to play catch up.....if so, the NZD will get pummeled.
  • #13,091
  • Sep 22, 2011 1:07pm Sep 22, 2011 1:07pm
Well kids.....we have broken below major support at the following places:

 

  1. 1.35 EUR/USD
  2. 0.80 NZD/USD
  3. 1.00 AUD/USD

Also, we have broken above major resistance in USD/CAD at parity, and are actually at the next resistance point now - 1.03, which looks vulnerable. If oil settles below $80 today - the CAD is going to get pummeled over the next few weeks.

So.......we should all be long the USD only at this point I would suspect. The markets have made very obvious statements lately, and today (last 24 hours really) has been a profound change in tone. Don't ignore it.

  • #13,092
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:45pm Sep 22, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well kids.....we have broken below major support at the following places:

 

  1. 1.35 EUR/USD
  2. 0.80 NZD/USD
  3. 1.00 AUD/USD

Also, we have broken above major resistance in USD/CAD at parity, and are actually at the next resistance point now - 1.03, which looks vulnerable. If oil settles below $80 today - the CAD is going to get pummeled over the next few weeks.

So.......we should all be long the USD only at this point I would suspect. The markets have made very obvious statements lately, and today (last 24 hours really) has been a...

Seems like the markets have decided the trend for the next few months, as usually occurs after summer every year.

What with a 95% risk of Greece collapsing and many big players now openly sayinf that Greece must be thrown out of the euro group, the direction currencies are moving in makes sense. Imho, what we're seeing now is the beginning of the double dip, and my belief is that things will get worse this time than in 2008. Reason - no problems were solved in the last three years, everything has been pushed in front of us until it collapses under its own weight.

Chris, btw, great work on the forum. Work is crazy right now for me but I'll try to be more active there.
  • #13,093
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:14pm Sep 22, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Seems like the markets have decided the trend for the next few months, as usually occurs after summer every year.

What with a 95% risk of Greece collapsing and many big players now openly sayinf that Greece must be thrown out of the euro group, the direction currencies are moving in makes sense. Imho, what we're seeing now is the beginning of the double dip, and my belief is that things will get worse this time than in 2008. Reason - no problems were solved in the last three years, everything has been pushed in front of us until it collapses under...
Thanks for the compliment....

And as far as the post is concerned, I agree with just about all of it really. I think it will be worse in some places than 2008, but in others it won't be quite so bad......I think the EU is in deep trouble. I know the Europeans will do as much as possible to keep it together, but that is exactly what they shouldn't do......the north needs to kick the south. It is that simple.

There is a conspiracy theory over here that there is a new currency coming called the "Amero". It would include USD/Mexico/Canada. I think watching the EU will make sure that never happens!

The summer's end normally shows the way for a while, and I agree - I think we have our answer.

Chris
  • #13,094
  • Sep 23, 2011 6:55am Sep 23, 2011 6:55am
Quoting clockwork71
...I don't know if you trade spot silver through CFDs or something - or the real contracts in the futures markets. The futures contracts will make you puke with the volatility and account balance swings.....
No, just its ETF ticker SLV ... That's a big reason why I don't trade metal futures; only currencies for now.

Silver pressing the range sub-$32.5 as I type on Spot. Gold slashing, print $1692. Liquidation sale! (...speaking of puke this morning, Gold & Silver retail? Eww.)

What a ride this week... Market's getting their direction.

Do you scalp/swing currencies on Globex? I think it's easier there than Spot.
  • #13,095
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:10am Sep 23, 2011 11:10am
Quoting Soca
No, just its ETF ticker SLV ... That's a big reason why I don't trade metal futures; only currencies for now.

Silver pressing the range sub-$32.5 as I type on Spot. Gold slashing, print $1692. Liquidation sale! (...speaking of puke this morning, Gold & Silver retail? Eww.)

What a ride this week... Market's getting their direction.

Do you scalp/swing currencies on Globex? I think it's easier there than Spot.
I don't do Globex personally, but I know Kulu does futures in the currency markets.
  • #13,096
  • Sep 23, 2011 4:20pm Sep 23, 2011 4:20pm
Wow......the NZD looks absolutely horrible at this point.
  • #13,097
  • Sep 23, 2011 5:44pm Sep 23, 2011 5:44pm
I would probably look for a bounce with NZD/USD because of the ranging area it's gone into, if AUD/USD doesn't bounce I still see an opportunity to short as it gets past 9600 because it should get to at least 9400 undisturbed.
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  • #13,098
  • Sep 23, 2011 9:15pm Sep 23, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting Rk33333
I would probably look for a bounce with NZD/USD because of the ranging area it's gone into, if AUD/USD doesn't bounce I still see an opportunity to short as it gets past 9600 because it should get to at least 9400 undisturbed.
It is so bad, it actually fell against the CHF. I was speaking in general terms.....I think the NZD is in serious trouble. I agree about the bounce in cable by the way.......unless the G20 ignores the EU altogether.....
  • #13,099
  • Sep 24, 2011 2:04am Sep 24, 2011 2:04am
Hey Chris,

First of all > love your method and you willingness to share it all. I think karma will pay it off. I've been reading your thread for quite some time now, almost 400 pages done Crazy huh...

I would like to start contributing to this thread, not only be a silent Silent Service Method observer

Alright > GBP/CHF

1.4 area seems to be quite respected, and recently 2 beautiful pinbars formed at the resistance. Something of your interest?
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  • #13,100
  • Sep 24, 2011 8:11am Sep 24, 2011 8:11am
Thanks for posting this chart. This is a great example of a chart that looks good at first, but there are a few things that I don't like about selling it. First, the Swiss National Bank is going to actively work against the appreciation of the Franc. Because of this, even if the pair breaks down, you might find that one moment you are 100 pips up, and then shortly after you are down 500. Just not worth it to me at this point.

The second thing is that there are a few examples of support just below. With support below, and resistance above, I am more apt to think it might go sideways for a while. Either way, I am staying away from buying the Franc at this point. This chart could lead to a lot of consolidation at this point in my opinion. Of course, I could be wrong.

As for the Franc, I am presently buying USD/CHF on dips as the Franc is being worked against, and the Dollar is the beneficiary of "safe haven" buying.

Welcome to the thread....

Chris
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