Hypothetical - Effects of earthquake in Tokyo

Hi all,

Just a hypothetical question. A few years back I read an article that claimed a major earthquake in Tokyo would probably plunge the world into recession. It would certainly screw up the Japanese economy in any case.

Fast forward to now, and we find the world has plunged into recession without any need for a natural disaster in Tokyo. But we have been able to watch the yen stengthen considerably against other currencies.

Anyway, my question. What would be the ramifications for global markets if a cataclysmic earthquake struck Tokyo now? I would never wish for such a thing, but the truth is Tokyo and the Kanto region of Japan is essentially due for another major tremblor and scientists claim a 35-40% chance of a big one within the next 30 years. There may be no big one for decades, but then it could just happen tomorrow.

"Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105,000 lives. Reoccurrence of any of these shocks today would cost about one trillion dollars, of which perhaps 10% is insured."

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S23C..01S

What about if Godzilla went on a rampage ?

This would be very bad for JPY.

That's funny, I am presently working on an EA for this exact scenario. :-)

Maybe that would be a good opportunity to invest in japanese construction companies.
Someone has to rebuild the country.

What if La palma island sinks before that? and creates a Tsunami that destroys New York ? Scientists say that it is very possible.

what if California big earthquake happens first?

What if Iran launches nuclear weapons to israel first?

What if? What if ? ....

....don't trade long term.. world is crazy...

technically, this is bad for japan. even though their currency is strengthening, that's not neccesarily a good thing. Japan WANTS their currency to be inflated. they did it on purpose. so you could say that the fact that the JPY is strengthening is proof that their hurting.

on the other hand, this could have been their big master plan: just wait for everyone to go into recession, then take over the world. i mena think about it: their money base is almost 100 times larger than ours. for every one dollar we have, they have 100 yen. now imagine that USDJPY reaches parity. now they have the same amount of Yen, but it's worth ten times more. they would then be able to buy everyting in the world.

lol. i'm kidding, but you never know....

the earthquake it really happend, and now? i am long on usd/jpy, how is your feeling about jpy trading?

Seems like everyone and their dogs long on jpy.
I never seen oandas sentiment (open positions)indicator at such extreme.
Looking for long entry when markets open. On the other hand, retail crowd has to be wrong. I will be surprised if nothing happens, expecting extreme whipsaws and then a dive to new bottom or a launch through the roof.