(binned per thread starter’s request) Liars and Thieves

That’s realistic answer from a person who is dishonest.

Continue your shenanigans. We’ll get you soon enough and put to the with Pat Chiko

All the best

Hi Isabella, you are a long standing and respected member here in FF... would you like to join my tg room for a few weeks and give an unbiased review as to wether i am selling or scamming... the room will only be open for a few more weeks then closing it to concentre on my own trading

Also invite is for

1. https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...tar86263_5.gif medici (https://www.forexfactory.com/medici)

Nice trading explorer same as your master T721.

It is 10:35 am in New York and we ended our trading session at 10:30 with the following results:

My trading: 13 trades including 2 loses, gross profit $525 less $58.50 in commission (commission $4.5 per closed trade)
My wife: 14 trades, no loss, gross profit $350 less $56 in commission (commission $4 per trade, my wife uses a different brokerage)

Additional comments:

1. Respectfully, take it or leave it. If interested, calculate the "win ratio" based on various definitions of it yourself.
2. I am sorry that I cannot disclose our proprietary time frame, charts, indicators, etc. or any other details beyond what is in my initial post.
3. We found, and it has been confirmed by others, that women are better traders primarily because they are by nature more disciplined and take less risk.
4. Though my profit was higher today than my wife's profit, I will admit that (a) I took much bigger risks and (b) I should and will endeavor to trade more like my wife.

I will be out of here. But before I am, I am taking the liberty of copying a response I wrote to a friend who happens to be a "value investor." It will perhaps illuminate further the issue of trading:
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Hello Annemarie:

I will answer only briefly and in points:

1. Trading is not "investing." It is a "job."

2. In "investing," most people either through their due diligence or relying on their "financial advisor"
invest a rather "substantial" amount of money in a stock on the strength of the argument that the stock
value "must" go up and together with dividends it will result in profit. Then they sort of forget about it.
This has worked well for people like Warren Buffet who became fabulously rich doing exactly that
over decades.

3. It has been proven time and time again that IN THE LONG RUN such investment strategy will result
in a profit.

4. But the stock does not have to go only up. Just look at the price of IBM for the past 20 years.
In fact, the Elliot Wave Theory teaches us that the price of stock can drop 50% or even more.

Happened at Villages in Florida:
A resident said: "Can you imagine? I got AIDS at 80!"
Another answered: "That is nothing. I had IBM at 180!"

5. That is why "investing" based on the idea that the stock will go only up, while it may be profitable, may also be
disappointing - the stock can drop, perhaps temporarily. Or, it may go to zero when the company goes to the dogs,
which indeed can happen based on business reversals.

6. That is why:

- I get calls all up in arms "my stock dropped by $200,000 and I am losing $200,000." Typically, they are not because they
bought the stock for a song 20 years ago and have a significant profit. But they think their stock lost money because it dropped
from its high.
- The "financial advisors" who are frequently not knowledgeable in business or economics look like geniuses when the stock
goes up (IBM up 100% in the last two years) but hide from their clients when the stock or the whole market goes down.
- "Investors" write articles on the subject "I went on a cruise for two weeks and when I came back, my stock was 50% down."
Naturally, this happens frequently. What to do? Most investors and their financial advisors elect to hold onto the stock based on
FAITH (the operative word is faith, namely very close to gambling) that the stock will go up again. Invariably and in the long,
sometimes a very long, run it will go up.

7. Traders work entirely differently, whether in stock, options or futures.

(7a) First, you need a rather small amount of money (only to cover the margin) in comparison to "investing."
(7b) Second, you do not expect to make money because the price MUST go up. Rather, you make money when the price
goes up by buying "long" and you make money when the price goes down by selling "short."

8. The trick, of course, is to know when the price goes up and when it goes down. This is a great subject I will only touch upon:

(8a) You must develop a mathematical model of the market in the trading instrument you specialize in. It took me 8.5 years
to develop a profitable model of the market! And I am still developing improvements. My wife, who does not have the background
in operations research, mathematical statistics and mathematics is very good at that. I develop a new feature, explain this
to her at 9:15 am and from 9:30 to 10:30 or 11:00 am she can make more money than I. She is that smart at her tender age of 88.5.

(8b) It is said that 90% of people who try trading lose money. I think it is close to 100%.

(8c) The worst are the big trading "mills" that hire people off the street with no knowledge of anything, give them their client investor's
money and they lose it. They think they can make money just based on the power of their intellect that may not be there after all.
We have books on trading that say, not as an advise, that traders think for instance that if they take brown shoes on a particular day,
they will make money. Then they lose it and the standard answers are: "I told you that there was risk." Or, "you did not invest enough"
after investing $200,000. It is a farce. Again, these people have been successful in stock trading over the last two years in a rising
market by trading "day candles" and surviving rather significant drops in price.

(8d) There are just many fraudsters and charlatans out there to get your money by giving "training" and "advice" while they never
make a dime in the market:

- giving courses for $7,000 to $10,000 a pop
- pretending on Internet to give examples of "live" profitable trading while they do it after the fact knowing the previous day market.
- giving video advise on YouTube on "what happened in the market today," which is entirely useless
- giving videos on YouTube in which they say inanities such as "market is completely random." Such nonsense is propounded by
people working for the purveyors of trading software or working for "investment companies" solely in a effort to obtain paid clients.
For market is not random, governed strictly by chance. If it were, there would be a 50% chance to make money and, equally, 50%
chance to lose money with the resulting profit being zero.
- For the market is not random but stochastic. The crucial difference, which remains hidden to those ignorant of mathematical statistics
and the theory of probability, is in that a stochastic process has patterns that can be studied and fixed by methods of mathematical
statistics. And in that way, a profit can be generated from a stochastic process. Just look at my probabilities of profit above.

(8e) It is said that 80% of the profits in today's market are generated automatically by computers. We find that we can make more
money by manual trading than by the use of our automated trading.

We think that the reason is as follows: We trade on our super duper $2,500 laptops with the fastest processors money can buy using
commercially available trading software in which we have build our models of the market, using a wireless data connection with the
AT&T tower 500 feet away with the latency of 50 to 80 milliseconds. These tools are by definition limited.

We believe that the Wall Street trading companies are employing hundreds of Ivy League educated mathematicians and engineers
who are using computers that cost millions of dollars. In addition, in terms of communications, they place their computers next to
the exchange hardwired to the exchange computers next door so they save an infinitesimally small amount of time it takes for an
electrical signal, traveling at the speed of light, to reach their computer from the exchange and back.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

I have offered what I developed, which cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars, to relatives and acquaintances for free. But, there
are no takers.

With best regards,

IO
__________________________________________________________________________

On Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 05:22:51 AM EST, Annemarie wrote:

I didn't know you were into futures! Always thought of e-minies as a kind of money game and never had the courage to try that. Or the knowledge, really. People in my family have always been value investors--and the older generation were lucky on top of that. (Lucky to do much of their investing starting in 1990, I mean.)

This was interesting, thank you.

Happened at Villages in Florida:
A resident said: "Can you imagine? I got AIDS at 80!"
Another answered: "That is nothing. I had IBM at 180!

This I agree 100%. It took me 8 yrs starting from scratch to develop my model. That's why I don't talk about how I swing trade intraday for 50 pips. Great to read someone out there doing the same.

Cheers

IO

You're spot on correct about the stochastic nature of price. That's the reason why it's possible to create models to capture anomaly patterns.

This sums up everything.

And people ask me how I know price go up or down before it happens.

You can bet we're not alone on this path.

Happy trading 2025 to you and your wife.

Cheers

Finally a decent discussion on Math and Stats. My stats are everything to me. If stats show that I am beginning to deviate from % of profit my trading plan is calling for, I readjust my trading model. Readjustment of trading model is included in my trading plan.

Readjustment is mostly based on traded market volatility, ATRs/ADRs and few more interesting ingredients.

I look at my stats every week and if all is within deviation of the norm, I move on trading the same model next week, rinse and repeat. to next week.

You can't find any reference to ATR on this entire forum.

I mean there's ATR of anything we want. And that's our reference point. Tells you the surge in volatility when liquidity comes into the market. We can visually see the deviation from the norm.

We're on the same page.

Cheers

And the same to you!

Superficially, one can say that you are just too smart. But the real question is why so many people talk about trading while they know nothing about it as demonstrated by the majority of discussions on these fora.

And that is also the real reason why we have so many fraudsters and charlatans in trading, which includes the purveyors of trading computer software who are just the computer programmers who may be doing an excellent job by designing the complicated commercially available trading software but know nothing about the trading itself and by extension about how to use their software. The fraudsters who offer "advise" and "courses" for $10,000 a pop while they never make a dime in the market were already mentioned. By the last group are the "experts" from the financial firms who, in an effort to obtain "investors," publish useless articles describing Bollinger Bands or Moving Averages pretending to give "advice" on how to use these tools which they do not - the inane question such as "what is the best moving average" epitomizes it all. (Hint: As you undoubtedly know, there is no "best" moving average.)

Best regards,

IO

[quote=T721;15108629]{quote} Hi Isabella, you are a long standing and respected member here in FF... would you like to join my tg room for a few weeks and give an unbiased review as to wether i am selling or scamming... the room will only be open for a few more weeks then closing it to concentre on my own trading

Also invite is for https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...tar86263_5.gif (https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs/customavatars/thumbs/medium/avatar86263_5.gif) medici (https://www.forexfactory.com/medici)

Hello Terri, thanks for the flowers.
We'll do it the way you suggested.
Although I'm not a fan of Telegram (you may remember this from a conversation - where it wasn't about your channel ...),
I'm just there now, if you can arrange it for the weekend.

This is not a jury trial. People will believe or not those who you asked besides me.
Maybe there will be further inspiration from your experiences accessible to everyone
(in addition to the many contributions that demand more quality in the threads, I'll just mention Erebus as an tireless example).
You disturbed my hibernation.

Just to bin this thread for good(playa haters), almost done with my 3 Hour long Dow Futures 1 Min TF for +150 points. This is what real live trade looks like.

Had a Balance loss on this trade for few hours and then PA did what it did, Money Managed all as per trading plan.

They have no idea whether the market is rising or falling next simply because they approach their analysis the wrong way out of ignorance. Majority discussion on FF is regurgitating what someone else told them or some books they read or seen on YouTube videos. It's a situation of perpetuating falsehood. They get away with it because there's no one to call them out. Those knowledgeable prefer to remain silent and not get involved.

Cheers

You got it! It just that sometimes I cannot resist. My fault.

T721 told me that he is away on business for months and had therefore closed his room.
Maybe again in the summer.
So you won't hear anything from me on this matter in the near future.

LOL

He closed because people started asking him questions and realised that's he's just another liar furu

I had to but after several practice questions and then posting https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1743774258
he blocked me also