I started this thread to post my analysis and real time trades as it happens. I used to post my analysis and trades in Cable Update Thread and now decided to move to a new section due to having a hard time referencing and locating my previous charts.
History as a Trader: I started trading in September end 2022 so basically i am still under 1 year of my trading career. I trade only GBPUSD and will stick to this pair for personal preferences and reasons trying to be a professional in this pair.
Tools of Trading: I use Time and Price Trading Concepts similar to what is thought by W.D Gann,Elliot waves and Pivots if you are not familiar with W.D Gann , Pivots and Elliot waves please do google.
Personal Trading Indicators:
When i started Forex trading back in Sep 2022 i purchased some books they are
- Wave Principal ( by Robert Prechter )
- Definitive Guide to W.D Gann Square of 9 ( By Mikula )
- Pivot Boss ( by Frank .O )
I have developed my own personal indicators to trade the market ( GBPUSD ). It makes it easier for me to understand what the currency is doing and it's Technical Analysis.
Trend Cycles : This indicator used for Entry and Exit which shows Bull and Bear Cycle and is part of Trend-0.37
Trend-0.45 : This indicator is used as Intraday Trading Fluctuations using M15 Time Frame. The indicator tries to predict the Close of the Daily Candle
Trend-0.37 : This Indicator is use to trade the GBPUSD swing on 4 Hour Time Frame. The Indicator is based on Time and Price Patterns ( 360 – also known as Bella's 360 ) to give out Trading Date and Support or Resistance zones.
Trend-0.25: This indicator shows special trend whenever it is discussed on the thread. It is not depended on the time frames but uses currency as a whole using Bella's Advanced Algorithms . It shows 1 Trend Direction in all time frames having 1 Support or Resistance. Usually used to see the Currency Trend ( Long Term ).
Trend Terms that will be use on the Thread
Oracle : Long Term ( 4hr )
Trend Cycles : Midterm (1hr )
Blue(15) : Short Term (15M )
Also 0.25 which is Currency Trend
Support / Resistance Labeling used on the Charts.
Key Support/Resistance: The Ultimate Resistance/Support plotted on 4Hr Chart ( this is the most important price figure )
Short Term S/R Plotted on 15 Min
Res : Higher Time Frame Resistance
Spt : Higher Time Frame Support
Higher Time Frame S/R to be plotted on 4hr Chart
S/R to be plotted on the Weekly Chart ( 0.25 )
All forecasting posts will have performance associated with it scenarios are below
1.Forecast on target
I will be posting my trades and the format will be
Sell Above 1.2xxxx
Stop - Loss as 1.2xxx
T/P as 1.2xxx
2. Market Order :
Sell at 1.2xxx
Stop Loss : 1.2xxxx
T/P : 1.2xxx
These are small snippets of point of view written by my self using Trend-0.37 or Trend-0.45 . This is mostly to revise the current market sentiment , view of market structure without providing any kind of Forecasts or Trading activity,
Example below for Reference:
Market Summary / Outlook
GBPUSD – 1.27213.... Cable's rebound after yesterday's selloff to 1.26142 suggest recent decline has formed a temp low and consolidation above there would be seen. As long as (22.08.2023) Tuesday's Top 1.28000 holds the said bias would still stay on the bearish side.
General Indicators (Daily):
MACD (8,17,9): Neutral
STOC (8,3,3 ) : Down
Trend Following EMA (24 ) :1.27527
Bella's GBPUSD Road Map
The GBPUSD road map is about how the price is laid out for GBPUSD in steps of increment and decrement . The main job is to where is GBPUSD is terms of Price Action using numeric and not price patterns. The system provides major levels and minor levels as an e.g
Major Levels : 1.27130 , 1.26010 and 1.24890
Pivot Points ( Floor Traders ) - Trend.045
Pivot Points are Important price figures used in Trend-0.45 , The idea is to find the best value to sell or buy. Trend-0.45 will create it's own Support and Resistance using the past market behavior.
If you think about market as having a role to facilitate trade between buyers and sellers. Every day the market provides an open price and this price is starting point of the day. The Pivot is considered a Value ( a reference that can be used to see the mean of the day , it is useful in the context of best value ). As traders our job is to find the best value if we want to buy and best value when we want to sell. ( not just any value ).
Responsive Buyers: You will become a responsive buyer if you are buying below the Value ( Pivot Point ). You think price is undervalue
Responsive Sellers: You will become a responsive seller if you are selling above the Value ( Pivot Point ).You think price is overvalue.
Initiative Buyer: You will become an initiative buyer if you are buying above or at the Value ( Pivot Point ). You think pivot or above is the best value.
Initiative Seller: You will become an initiative seller if you are selling below or at the Value ( Pivot Point ). You think pivot or below is the best value.
I like to keep this as short as possible to show why pivots are useful technical analysis price figures.
How do we profit - ( Trend - 0.37 )
The aim of all analysis should be to sell or buy where you KNOW others will sell or buy after you.. The reason is their selling or buying will create the net order flow or bearish pressure to drive prices lower or higher, allowing you opportunity to profit . ( i just trade max 0.50 that will not move the market so we need large financial institutions to move the market ).
what is necessary here?
The analysis must focus on areas of trader decision . The 0.37 does that by identifying “Minor Resistance “ and “Minor Support” to profit also Key Support/Key Resistance etc . You could use any system that identifies these kind of important reversal zones.
The most effective analysis is not analysis of price but rather analysis of trader decisions.
Support and Resistance:
Support and Resistance are created by the decision making of market participants as they operate with in the environment of uncertainty.
Note that : People create Support and Resistance for many reason on the chart , it is very easy to put a line on chart and say “This is Resistance”!.. How about emotional response of market participant . ( Notice on 4hr Chart : 10.08.2023 High 1.28182 , there are emotions of traders, regret of missing out an opportunity or trapped traders in loosing position , can you feel it? ).
The said Resistance High 1.28182 is effective analysis of trader decision which was proven by last week 1.28000 ( you can see the reference sell forecast by myself using Bella's 0.37 ).
I just wanted to keep it short to touch on the topic of Support and Resistance using 0.37
I will provide a Quick Example, without any special software like Trend-0.37 ( raw chart just price ).
note:Trend-0.37 identifies it's own S/R using Bella's Advanced S/R Module including Sub wave which is very advanced topic not needed in this basic discussion.
The chart shows all the areas that are marked as "?" are possible Support and Resistance marked by a Trader for future reference. Possibilities are
a. Trader will look for reversal signal as market approaches to one of these areas
b. Trader will look to exit (Take Profit ) as market approaches to one of these areas
c. Put a Stop Loss below this area or above this area ( such as 1.28182 ).
d. Trend confirmation as it breaks above or below these levels.
Note : Above are some possibilities those S/R area could be used .
Bella's 0.37 ( Educational Material ) / 4hr Chart
Trend : Trend-0.37
Before i start talking about Trend in Context of Bella's Trend-0.37 , there is a checklist these programs go through to make sure there is a repeatable process of identifying trade opportunity or just analysis.
I am sure there are some professional traders either on my list or just watching my thread would agree that there is an involved process in identifying trade opportunity.
Initial Market Analysis : Process ( Trend-0.37)
1. Define Structure
2. Define Trend
3. Identify Strength and Weakness
4.Identify Future Trend Direction
5.Visualize Future Price Action
6.Identify Areas of Trade Opportunity
The chart does two process from above list
1. Define Structure ( S/R )
2. Define Trend (Swing High/Swing Low and the Progress)
Trend Reversal Zones
Trend Reversal Box : This is the most important zone on the chart , a new mid-term trend will always start from this Zone.
There are two type of reversal zone each having it's PRD ( Price Reversal Date ) and PRZ ( Price Reversal Zone ).
Also note that there are certain rules associated with it , Trend Reversal Zone must be touched by price on the given date ( also known as Price has Squared with Time ). Please note that even though i do use W.D Gann concepts but my Theory of Time <> Price is different .
1. Resistance Box ( Red Color ) : Price must enter this zone on the given date only ( or it will be shifted forward in future date )
2. Support Box ( Green Color ) : Price must enter this zone on the given date only ( or it will be shifted forward in future date )
Posting Rules on the Thread:
Only GBPUSD Charts and Trades are allowed to be posted on this thread. ( Note : Don't Post any charts which are against my trades )
Bella ( Goddess of Thunder )