An idiosyncratic technique

Hello.

I've been in FF for a while. Tried many things. This thread is a summation of the point I have reached. I have a technique that has proven consistent results. But theres still an element missing because I lose consistently every now and again, albeit, rarely. This could be a psychological hurdle perhaps but I think it is technical. I have tried this technique enough to know that it can work but I suppose I need a new set of eyes.

This thread is open to any trader who finds it useful, and can accommodate their style to it. This thread is meant to impart my knowledge and to receive input from traders who feel it is useful and can improve upon my technique.

I call this a technique and not a strategy because it is just my way of reading the market. It is not some mathematical formula or a jumble of lagging indicators.

In the following posts I will start to explain while taking trades. While I do have a lot of factual stuff there are also some assumptive things i will include which attempt to explain why some trades work and some trades don't. But the latter is all subjective.

This thread is meant for those traders who have spent a considerable amount of time looking at charts and have developed a feel of how and why price is doing what it is doing. I think this is not a beginners' thread. But everyone is welcome. All opinions positive or negative are welcome.

I will try to post regularly i.e. daily. Or every other day at least. Sometimes I lose interest or get occupied so disappear for days. But I'm going to try and keep this going as long as money is flowing.

The objective is to make money. That's it.

Here is how I set up my chart. H1 is my primary timeframe.

I use 20 EMAs on every time frame. There is a reason for this and ill touch on this later. I use MT5

On the H1 I put up 3 EMAs. 20, 100 and 440. That's an hourly 20, daily 20 and weekly 20 all on the same chart. I find with this setting the lower charts approximate the the higher 3 common timeframes, give or take some.

I use pivot points. Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly.
these include open, high/low, 3 supports, 3 resistances

That's all. Here's a screen shot of H1.

I will be starting here with 65 USD.

I will do the next post after a few hours, as i have to concisely explain how I read price action, which is the crux of the entire thing.

In my attempt to amalgamate my approach, I will go straight to PA before going into details. We can discuss that as we go along.

I'm sure we are all familiar with basic price patterns. Strength and weakness patters. Of course those always have to be at the forefront of our trading.

The way I read price action complies with S/R levels, S/D levels, order accumulation levels etc. It's all the same thing. Just terminologies. If I was to give my entry points a terminology, it would be disequilibrium points. This label has definitely been used before but it applies here. A point where price does not want to stay. So it will go one way or the other. This point is actually not difficult to determine. It's the direction that is.

As retail traders we are completely on the back foot. We do not have the information that companies have (we can discuss this as well if there is interest at a later point since i have experience). But I have to mention here that I, and this is a slightly educated assumption, that in a stable market structure am simply 'predicting' what the 'algorithms' are 'likely' to do. My approach to trading is that we take hints from the market and enter a position. Rest is a toss-up.

At any point in a market structure, buy/sell orders are being executed. Tallied out, so to speak. The points that interests me are candles with long wicks. That interests everybody but there are some criteria:

1. A long wick candle has to have a previous swing (which would be a wick candle on a larger timeframe) bouncing from the open of that long wick.
2. Price has to have crossed the long wick and returned to it (presumably being a pullback).
3. That open price absolutely has to have a history of candles moving away from it. That is the disequilibrium.

I will try to depict this in a few charts:

Pic 1: In the above chart we identify a disequilibrium point. Long wick pull back on the Gold H1 June 6. It stands out and I put a line at the open of it. Lets look at its history.

Pic 2: This area seems to have had massive disequilibrium in Nov '21.

Pic 3: So what I want to see is a a test of this level which breaks below but has a massive upturn. and then i want to take the trade on the retrace.

I understand this can become a bit confusing. but lets try to understand as I go along.

Lets test this. Gold is relatively volatile due to being at lows due to inflation and high yields and what not. I am looking at the circled areas. for a short. Small trade. Its late in the day so would not recommend it.

pic 1: seems like a point of interest on a short time frame.
pic 2: has a history from yesterday

quick trade on a small time level. 220 points SL. 250 points TP. I'll cut it manually if needed. lets see how it goes.

Edit: BE on trade. 5 MA here & 15 slightly below.
Edit (pic 3): closed manually. 215 points.

Here is what I traded today. Gold is generally my go-to instrument but for the last couple of days its been un-tradable. So Dax is where I turned to. stable market structure and price action currently. Same technique as above. If anyone wants to know about a particular trade I am happy to explain. But i wont delve into the detail of each trade unsolicited because it takes too long.

I'm going to touch base on disequilibrium points again as to how I understand wicks/pins as a signal. Referring to Pic 1. This is the Dax 16 June 15m candles. I have circled all the points of interest. pins pointing down are points of short while pins pointing up are points to take a long. However, we have to see the history. Lets look at the history of the first bearish pin.

The most recent history for this is the 8th of March. I have arrowed out the level I circled in pic one in pic 2. we can clearly see that price simply doesn't not want to stay at this level. It will go in either direction but will not stop here. Sure there is some consolidation since I am using M15 as my main timeframe. Higher timeframes with the same concept provide better disequilibria.

Now I want to drop down to the M5 and make this yellow line more precise. what I'm looking for is a point where pins are constantly hitting my point of interest. Remember that we are looking at the open of the pin on 16 June as our entry point for a short (since price has smoothly and with momentum crossed below and is coming back) so I want to see fast reactions here. In pic 3 I adjust my yellow line as per the justification of the circles.

When I go back to 16 June I see i have over extended my entry point above where i want to see a reaction. So now i will go back to 8th march and point lower. I adjust my line lower to the next lever which actually turns out to be more reactive. Pic 4.

And surely enough, that level reacts. Pic 5

If anyone is following this approach of trading many pardons i have not posted in a few days. Firstly, it takes time to construct these posts and secondly, this thread's objective is to improve on the technique i.e. add more filters for increasing win probability. So if there is interest kindly let me know and I will continue. Otherwise, I will post but lackadaisically. Thank you.