Disliked{quote} Hi Jerry, I hope you are well. I was wondering, what parameters need to be used for Spectrum analysis of 4 hourly graph? I was trying to do it, but the Harmonic Box is generating the curve for 2023 and after, 2-3 years from the last bar. Tried different setup, but I do not know what is wrong. Have you had an experience of working with 4H graph?Ignored
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- Jul 17, 2020 11:50pm Jul 17, 2020 11:50pm
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- Jul 18, 2020 12:30am Jul 18, 2020 12:30am
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- Post #11,583
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- Jul 19, 2020 9:17am Jul 19, 2020 9:17am
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Starting this week I will be using a new price projection method based on Fourier transform. I have to forewarn you that even though the projection is based on cycles those aren't planetary cycles. Still I hope this would be relevant to the discussion here.
So here is the projection for the next week:
It looks like the price is to make a local maximum around 7/20/2020 16:00 and a local minimum around 7/21/2020 15:00 (GMT+3). After those it seems that it would be going much higher making 190 pips up move.
A little how I created that projection. I took 9 weeks of 1H price data (120 periods per week, 1080 periods total). The projection is based on the close price.
The calculations for the projection are made using the first 8 weeks of data and the last week data is used to verify the validity of the model.
The projection for the next week should be taken with a grain of salt because the correlation of the projected values for the calculated period is a bit low at about 35% (I try typically to get 40%+). The correlation of the last week data is 60.8% which is fine.
The idea behind creating this type of projection is not to estimate the exact price levels but to mark potential price reversal spots.
If this method turns to be somewhat useful I will be sharing more details about the method including some tools for the calculations.
Have fun!
EDIT: The pair is EURUSD of course
So here is the projection for the next week:
It looks like the price is to make a local maximum around 7/20/2020 16:00 and a local minimum around 7/21/2020 15:00 (GMT+3). After those it seems that it would be going much higher making 190 pips up move.
A little how I created that projection. I took 9 weeks of 1H price data (120 periods per week, 1080 periods total). The projection is based on the close price.
The calculations for the projection are made using the first 8 weeks of data and the last week data is used to verify the validity of the model.
The projection for the next week should be taken with a grain of salt because the correlation of the projected values for the calculated period is a bit low at about 35% (I try typically to get 40%+). The correlation of the last week data is 60.8% which is fine.
The idea behind creating this type of projection is not to estimate the exact price levels but to mark potential price reversal spots.
If this method turns to be somewhat useful I will be sharing more details about the method including some tools for the calculations.
Have fun!
EDIT: The pair is EURUSD of course
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
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- Jul 19, 2020 10:42am Jul 19, 2020 10:42am
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- Post #11,585
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- Jul 19, 2020 12:33pm Jul 19, 2020 12:33pm
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Starting this week I will be using a new price projection method based on Fourier transform.
)https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2436
I also thought it was an interesting approach because obviously things happen in waves. But as I posted in other threads before, we probably have to look for a frequency modulation, base frequency and something on top. Therefore a spectrum analysis that someone did in another thread sounds like a good approach. EURUSD seems to be a good candidate.
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- Jul 19, 2020 12:51pm Jul 19, 2020 12:51pm
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{quote} There is already a thread (sorry to say that you are not the first one
I decided to post the price projection here so that it could be compared to jnevins' weekly outlook for the same instrument. If those happen to go in one and the same direction we shall have a great trade with high probability.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
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- Jul 19, 2020 1:14pm Jul 19, 2020 1:14pm
- | Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Member | 34 Posts
{quote} intersting degoor ! but how you this ? by which part of software?
That will not be really convenient for most traders because:
1. It is written in Python. To use my code you would need to setup a Python environment and have some basic programming skills. [If you can write a fairly complicated formula in Excel you would be just fine.]
2. Even though it performs most of the calculations there are still tasks that have to be performed manually. Today it took me the better part of a hour to create a projection for a single pair and I had to do a number of those
3. Trading those projections [assuming they are 60-70% correct] is not going to be easy. It will take some time to figure out the most efficient way to do it.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
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- Jul 19, 2020 1:35pm Jul 19, 2020 1:35pm
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- Jul 19, 2020 11:47pm Jul 19, 2020 11:47pm
- | Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Member | 34 Posts
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
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- Jul 20, 2020 10:31am Jul 20, 2020 10:31am
Good morning,
Yesterday I did an eurusd m5 forecast, inspired by Jerry N.
Forecast based on q-spectrum.
I will share H1 and D1 in the evening.
Timezone UTC+3.
Yesterday I did an eurusd m5 forecast, inspired by Jerry N.
Forecast based on q-spectrum.
I will share H1 and D1 in the evening.
Timezone UTC+3.
- Post #11,592
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- Jul 20, 2020 11:30pm Jul 20, 2020 11:30pm
Good evening,
Just finished my H1 cycle analysis, it was hard this time, I couldn't pick a good cycle.
I'll try to sell but technically there are no good conditions for this. Everything looks too bullish.
If we'll start a correction, I'll search a TP at the bottom border of the 2-2 channel.
Just finished my H1 cycle analysis, it was hard this time, I couldn't pick a good cycle.
I'll try to sell but technically there are no good conditions for this. Everything looks too bullish.
If we'll start a correction, I'll search a TP at the bottom border of the 2-2 channel.
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- Jul 22, 2020 1:02am Jul 22, 2020 1:02am
- | Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Member | 34 Posts
Good evening, Just finished my H1 cycle analysis, it was hard this time, I couldn't pick a good cycle. I'll try to sell but technically there are no good conditions for this. Everything looks too bullish. {image} If we'll start a correction, I'll search a TP at the bottom border of the 2-2 channel. {image}
The only model that still holds is the one above for EURUSD.
I feel though that the market got a bit overextended so a correction is to be expected
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
- Post #11,594
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- Jul 22, 2020 3:45am Jul 22, 2020 3:45am
- | Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Member | 34 Posts
Yesterday, 7/21/2020 was a big move day for all forex markets. We need to consider what prompted the thing.
Firstly we have a new moon. That gives a burst of new energy and creates greater moves.
Both Venus and Mercury are behind the Sun which might signify a pure one sided action without any corrections. If that hypothesis is true then the Sun is the true trend, Mercury is the trader that likes to play tricks (create sine like moves) and Venus is the wise one that is always there to make the correction.
No mood void of course that creates volatility in a certain range or in a price channel.
Sun in exact opposition with Saturn. That might signify the extreme point to be reached in the move even though the move lasted the whole day.
Mars and Chiron in Aries that gives a rapid action. Uranus in Taurus opposite to his culmination of Scorpio might create some strange market behavior.
The Cancer being a cardinal sign also a passive sign seems to not like idle moves and just does the minimum so that the price goes where it needs to be. Also it likes to nurture the price which is pushing it in one direction.
Firstly we have a new moon. That gives a burst of new energy and creates greater moves.
Both Venus and Mercury are behind the Sun which might signify a pure one sided action without any corrections. If that hypothesis is true then the Sun is the true trend, Mercury is the trader that likes to play tricks (create sine like moves) and Venus is the wise one that is always there to make the correction.
No mood void of course that creates volatility in a certain range or in a price channel.
Sun in exact opposition with Saturn. That might signify the extreme point to be reached in the move even though the move lasted the whole day.
Mars and Chiron in Aries that gives a rapid action. Uranus in Taurus opposite to his culmination of Scorpio might create some strange market behavior.
The Cancer being a cardinal sign also a passive sign seems to not like idle moves and just does the minimum so that the price goes where it needs to be. Also it likes to nurture the price which is pushing it in one direction.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
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- Jul 23, 2020 1:25am Jul 23, 2020 1:25am
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- Jul 23, 2020 9:03am Jul 23, 2020 9:03am
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Now= 1.15 40 Recent H = 1.16 02 Won't be surprised if this is the TOP 
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- Jul 23, 2020 2:07pm Jul 23, 2020 2:07pm
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Tried to replicate Jerry's method for this week. Only Harmonic Box line. I do not believe there is going to be down move on 21st of July, it might be just range trading and from Tuesday Afternoon EURUSD might just start going up until the end of the week. Let's see. Good luck everyone trading this pair. {image}
I have been away, out on the water all week and didn't post my usual outlook before leaving. I did see though that it should have been an up week... So I will let Becks' chart speak for me this week...
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- Jul 23, 2020 7:39pm Jul 23, 2020 7:39pm
{quote} Hi Becks and everyone, I have been away, out on the water all week and didn't post my usual outlook before leaving. I did see though that it should have been an up week... So I will let Becks' chart speak for me this week...
Safe travels. Hope you have a nice time on the water. We all look forward to next weeks chart.
Cheers
Jeff
I EAT PIPS
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- Jul 23, 2020 9:50pm Jul 23, 2020 9:50pm
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- Post #11,600
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- Jul 24, 2020 3:13pm Jul 24, 2020 3:13pm
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Now= 1.15 40 Recent H = 1.16 02 Won't be surprised if this is the TOP
the possibility of a great reversal.