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  • #3,581
  • Jan 8, 2012 11:40am Jan 8, 2012 11:40am
$1mln is a price a bit too high for what is in essence Dow Theory. That's what the trading rules in the Adam book basically are. But Wilders could afford it and he probably has most certainly recouped it from other venues.

I had always wondered what 'Adam projection' in that Delta software was. Now I've read the book, and would surmise that it could be a good additional tool to manage stops if one prefers a bit of 'predictive charting'. Otherwise, always back to the basics: Dow.
  • #3,582
  • Jan 8, 2012 1:54pm Jan 8, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting Sixer
fintrans,


you should really read the Wilder book again – tell me any “full moon” date (vertical lines) of the EURUSD at which we have had a turning point. Choose any time frame you want:

Btw, the “Adam Projection” is a simple mirroring of former prices only. It will work perfectly in trending markets and fail in sideway patterns. I can`t recognize any power in this tool.

Sixer
I suspect we could at current point
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,583
  • Jan 8, 2012 2:19pm Jan 8, 2012 2:19pm
My cycle low is 3.1.2012-11.1.2012 price levels 1.27-1.25 sweet spot is the 7th Jan for the low, projected reaction is then up til the 3.2. to 10.2 projected level 1.31, looking for a failure swing on the hour chart to instigate a long.

Delta is a hit and mainly miss affair, I would not recommend it to anyone having lost a lot of money trying to trade it. Traders should go with the trend, buy high or sell low, Livermore was a guy who made a fortune, he was a trend trader. Trying to sell highs and buy lows is a was to go broke fast. Larry Pesavento a pattern trader sends me his so called analysis and I don't think he even hits 50:50 on his trades. Basically, this business is mathamatical, go for more money then you lose, try to develop a system of 55% wining trades, its really that simple. Also the trend is your edge, go with it.
  • #3,584
  • Jan 8, 2012 4:43pm Jan 8, 2012 4:43pm
Orionsway,

Copan prepared the Matrix for the GBPUSD only, are you using it for the EURUSD too ? It differs from the Delta solution for the EURUSD which i have shown.
I found that most of the Delta users forget to consider and check other market conditions too.

Sixer
  • #3,585
  • Jan 8, 2012 4:47pm Jan 8, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting Sixer
Orionsway,

Copan prepared the Matrix for the GBPUSD only, are you using it for the EURUSD too ? It differs from the Delta solution for the EURUSD which i have shown.
I found that most of the Delta users forget to consider and check other market conditions too.

Sixer
it is somewhat the same just modified to fit euro Both are not far off from each other. delta graphics has also a diff count for cash than for futures.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,586
  • Jan 9, 2012 4:15am Jan 9, 2012 4:15am
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  • #3,587
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:20am Jan 9, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Ilovepippin
I also traded gbp. Was short the whole week.
And indeed, i went out before nfp. I could not be at my computer and don't like the volatility. But i try not to think in terms of 'could have', it is what it is.
Gann also left positions to reenter at a later time.

Ah I see, fair enough, I only swing trade EU and GU, so in good company.

Currently looking at 5240 and 5000 for now.
  • #3,588
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:23am Jan 9, 2012 5:23am
Quoting matei
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Thats very interesting Matei. Do you exclusively use Gann for trading, or use other techniques too?
  • #3,589
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:38am Jan 9, 2012 5:38am
tpaulbeaumon, I use the gann tehniques.The elliott,wyckoff or classic analysis methods are ( for me at least) means of checking or filtering of the signals.
  • #3,590
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:41am Jan 9, 2012 6:41am
Hello (again).

Quoting Sixer
fintrans,


you should really read the Wilder book again – tell me any “full moon” date (vertical lines) of the EURUSD at which we have had a turning point. Choose any time frame you want:


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...eurusdd61.gif/


Btw, the “Adam Projection” is a simple mirroring of former prices only. It will work perfectly in trending markets and fail in sideway patterns. I can`t recognize any power in this tool.


Sixer
Alright: after yesterday how about I apologise and we 'kiss and make up'??? LOL!!! (It's too late for me delete or edit my posts now anyway BUT I was quite happy to do so).

Suffice to say: I DO have the book and I HAVE read it (MORE than once) and it's just 'not for me'.

I wasn't saying that there were clearly defined turning points for ANY instrument at FULL moons. All I was saying is that from sitting here for six years watching charts all day every day 'something' happens on or around FULL moons. Exactly what that 'something' is I do not know and it's certainly nothing I would base any trading decisions on. That's all I was saying. I was not 'punting' The Delta Phenomenon at all nor was I saying that it has (or hasn't) got merit. Basically: it's just not for me but that doesn't mean (from my point of view anyway) that it's 'useless'.

Adam Theory??? Well: I'm not TOO sure that I agree with what you're saying. But please: there too I've only just started testing it out to see if it has any merit to it is all. I know what it's doing and how it works and I 'solve' Adam at the end of every week for EUR/USD, Gold, and Silver just to be able to compare, after a few months, how Adam Theory 'performed' when compared to what ACTUALLY happened is all. I've not back tested it as I don't think it's important enough to me to spend the time doing so i.e. I'm quite happy with Wilder's technical trading systems. But one thing that I can ALREADY see from Adam Theory (and as I noted): it DOES ENSURE (if you follow it) that you 'go with' the markets as opposed to going against them which is what I've spent a lot of trading time doing. Sure: you can make money trading against the trend but a) it's system dependant and b) most of the time it's only a few points that you're 'shooting for' by doing that if you're a trend trader.

And as has been mentioned by another member: (forgetting about Adam Theory itself) Wilder 'drives points home' in the book. It's not stuff that we DO NOT know. But as was noted: it's very easy to forget WHAT you know and what is obvious and to do exactly the opposite of what you DO KNOW to be 'the right thing to do' without even realising that you're doing it. And Wilder just seems to have the 'knack' of explaining certain things or imparting knowledge in ONE page while other authors may take an entire CHAPTER to explain just ONE thing e.g. an entire chapter on the reason for never moving a stop!!! LOL!!!

So. Friends??? I hope so. Sorry for the 'threats'. Believe it nor not: it's really not 'like' me. But I don't know too many people that like to be told that they're a liar (unless they are of course)!!! LOL!!!

Anyway: BE WELL everyone.

As I noted: this is not my usual 'hangout' so there's no point in my continuing to contribute to this thread. While I believe there is 'something' to ALL of this type of stuff (the planets, the moon, fractal geometry, tides, etc.) I'm a pure technical (system) trader. If I tried to trade based on the 'something' that I believe to exist in all of this stuff: well I'd probably wipe out very quickly!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.
  • #3,591
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:56am Jan 9, 2012 6:56am
Quoting fintrans
Hello (again).

Exactly what that 'something' is I do not know and it's certainly nothing I would base any trading decisions on. That's all I was saying. I was not 'punting' The Delta Phenomenon at all nor was I saying that it has (or hasn't) got merit. Basically: it's just not for me but that doesn't mean (from my point of view anyway) that it's 'useless'.
Dale.... if you want to give Delta another try, try Kirby Cooper. He worked with (or perhaps under Wilders) in the Delta office for over 20 years before he set up his own shop. He's an old-schooled tech trader as well, solid and doesn't go with fancy but useless stuff.
  • #3,592
  • Jan 9, 2012 7:30am Jan 9, 2012 7:30am
Hello.

Quoting Oshawa
Dale.... if you want to give Delta another try, try Kirby Cooper. He worked with (or perhaps under Wilders) in the Delta office for over 20 years before he set up his own shop. He's an old-schooled tech trader as well, solid and doesn't go with fancy but useless stuff.
That's very decent of you (your advice and post). Thank you.

Honestly: I spent a good few years jumping from trading system to trading system (typical new trader behaviour). So when it comes to trying something new: I'm REAL cautious. Wilder's Swing Index System appears to be my 'forte in life'. It's 'exact' and doesn't leave TOO much to the imagination and is not open to personal interpretation. The sad part (and after BIG losses accumulated in the first two years and maybe even a bit longer): that was the first trading system that I traded (well possibly the second i.e. I think I started out with Parabolic SAR but suffice to say 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' was the first book that I bought so I had my OWN 'personal keys to the kingdom' right in front of me from the start. The only difference is that it took me a while to develop the discipline to follow it, not 'second guess' it, manage risk correctly, and not to change trading systems because I'd just taken two consecutive losses)!!! LOL!!! I still have one or two 'demons' though i.e. I know I have a 'long bias' (I find it difficult to go short for some psychological reason unbeknown to me) and the 'going with' the market (both of which I believe Adam Theory and the book MAY help to all but eliminate now).

But then again: I've time on my hands too so I'll most certainly 'take a look' at (about) Kirby Cooper and his work. Put it this way: I do have a 'thirst for knowledge' and love reading about and analysing new trading systems. But I've passed the point of trading something else 'just because it exists' if you know what I mean. I think when I started out I was more 'in love' with the BUSINESS of trading and investment and somehow forget that the purpose was to make MONEY and not to keep myself entertained during the day!!! LOL!!! I spent a good deal of time learning the 'why' of the markets and what makes them 'tick' (no pun intended) and how the exchanges work and I'll tell you: as proud as I am that I put in the time and happy with my 'superfluous knowledge' it's not contributed to my making a single USD!!! LOL!!! (Well: I suppose I will never be sure i.e. experience and knowledge gained has to, I guess, contribute to profitability).

Sorry (once AGAIN off topic but I promise: 'last time') but I'm reminded of one of Wilder's quotes (well maybe even although it's 'off topic' it may help somebody sometime in the future to 'sit back and think' if they're going through a 'bad patch'):

"I know traders who can never seem to hang on and follow a good system because of a compulsive need for action. I know other traders who have a greater need to be right most of the time than they have a need for the money they can make" - J. Welles Wilder Jnr., 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems', 1978.

Food for thought??? LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.
  • #3,593
  • Jan 9, 2012 9:27am Jan 9, 2012 9:27am
Dale,

 I recommend Robert Miner:
1) High Probability Trading Strategies: Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures, and Stock Markets
2) Dynamic Trading: Dynamic Concepts in Time, Price & Pattern Analysis With Practical Strategies for Traders & Investors

Both books and the “Dynamic Trader Workshop” can be found in Web.

Sixer
  • #3,594
  • Jan 9, 2012 10:12am Jan 9, 2012 10:12am
Quoting Sixer
Dale,

I recommend Robert Miner:
1) High Probability Trading Strategies: Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures, and Stock Markets
2) Dynamic Trading: Dynamic Concepts in Time, Price & Pattern Analysis With Practical Strategies for Traders & Investors

[font=Times New Roman][size=1]Both books and the “[b]Dynamic Trader Workshop” can be found...
Thanks Sixer. I appreciate those suggestions too. Actually I think I already have a book by Robert C. Miner somewhere in my 'pile' of trading books.

Of course: there is ONE thing that I continually 'bang on about' to new traders when asked and that is that there is also such as thing as TOO MUCH information or INFORMATION OVERLOAD. It's another trap that's very easy to fall into (again: based on personal experience). Trading books are like analysts. For every book that says to 'do this' you'll find another that says 'do not do this'!!! LOL!!! It took me a long time to REALLY understand what people meant when they said 'find a trading system that suits YOU'. At first, in the beginning, when starting out, that never made sense to me. I mean: a trading system is a trading system is a trading system and if it's paper traded and is shown to be profitable well, then, what's the problem??? But that's not true. I've seen it proved time and time again. While I 'live and die' by Wilder's technical trading systems: others with fail with the very same technical trading systems. Not because of the technical trading systems themselves but just because of their 'personal makeup' i.e. 'trader psychology' really.

But thanks again.

Regards,

Dale.
  • #3,595
  • Jan 9, 2012 10:34am Jan 9, 2012 10:34am
So does this mean you guys aren't going to square off? lol

I studied Delta/Copan pretty diligently for a while. I ended up realizing that the more I got away from the full moon aspect of it, the better I did. In comparison to the other stuff I do, it just didn't hold up as well so there wasn't any point in continuing. Although I do watch lunar cycles, I do it not in the Delta way, but more of a price aspect or New Moon confluence with declination cycle way.

Full moon's by themselves are hit/miss in my experience. But when they do hit, they can be significant, so definitely worth paying attention to.
  • #3,596
  • Jan 9, 2012 10:39am Jan 9, 2012 10:39am
Quoting JR97
So does this mean you guys aren't going to square off? lol
Clown!!! LOL!!!

Well I like to think we have already!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.
  • #3,597
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:30pm Jan 9, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Dec 1 will be a major influence as saturn opp jupiter, Nov 31 mercury conj jupiter the mer jup aspect will be the opening bell whilst the Opp,is waxing Jup goes direct on Christmas. Truest of aspect 08 01 2012 then wanes into 2 15. The market will be where it should be by these times. Then usher in a new beginning. I think LOL

Maybe came to fruit
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,598
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:58pm Jan 9, 2012 6:58pm
So the planetery cycles discussion part died and got replaced by Wilder, huh?

I've just recently started looking to aspects/moon phases/tides/etc and think there might be something to this.

And although I didn't bother reading through complete thread wonder if anyone noticed how the call from original first post turned out:
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  • #3,599
  • Jan 9, 2012 8:22pm Jan 9, 2012 8:22pm
Quoting SunTrader
So the planetery cycles discussion part died and got replaced by Wilder, huh?

I've just recently started looking to aspects/moon phases/tides/etc and think there might be something to this.

And although I didn't bother reading through complete thread wonder if anyone noticed how the call from original first post turned out:
if ure talking about lunar aspects - we have a full moon yesterday. i tend to look at perigee and apogee with gold (silver i guess could work too) - i use full and new moon in eurusd mostly. eclipses are also a good sign of trend change btw.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #3,600
  • Jan 9, 2012 9:00pm Jan 9, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting bumapatria
........eclipses are also a good sign of trend change btw.
Yes I know. Solar are stronger than Lunar.
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