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USD is strong! If you are planning to trade USD pairs, be careful to avoid resisting strength.

I have learned that it is unwise to go against the trend. Unfortunately, it seems to be a common practice for people to trade against the trend. That's likely one of the main reasons why so many fail as traders.

The market has a way of humbling the over-confident. Some learn from their mistakes and grow their account while others continue to repeat their mistakes and lose money.

Which trader are you? Do you resist strength or do you strive to grow stronger with it?

USDX Daily Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USD continues to show strength. I will be looking to trade in favor of the dollar on USD pairs this week.

USDX 3 Day Chart

NZD is the weakest of currencies on the Weekly. Though it is the weakest, the time is not right to enter a trade on NZDUSD in my opinion. Therefore, I will wait for the completion of a pullback on the Daily or the 8HR before considering shorting NZDUSD.


Source

Patiently waiting for a signal to go long.

Note: Price could fall below the previous monthly high. Should that happen, I will then wait to see if it continues to respect the trend. Otherwise, I am preparing to go long at an appropriate signal from the 4HR chart, preferably somewhere near the previous Monthly High.

Because a new low has been made on the Daily, and price has entered a key Weekly support zone, I am expecting to see a retracement. I will wait for a retracement and/or a strong signal to short USDCAD before entering a trade.

USDCAD Daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDCAD Weekly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I will use this thread to post my practice calls for a day or two, fine tuning my timing.
Previously I posted the calls on the wrong thread (oops),
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13743827

tried a short buy cut that short quickly.
still look for the right timing.

758am time 2238.2 short Russel

I added more contracts (M2K) at 2239.2 area.
I have to do something so will aim to hold this until just after 10am (almost 2 hours).
stop 2 points above previous high.

the buy I was expecting for just after 10am was perfect, so that was a +25 point move down, and then a 23 point move up. Enough for today.

I will do a few more calls tomorrow-this helps by sharpening my focus.

ps. buy here at 2226.0

all that led to the following chart:

really busy today so missed all these moves up
joined the long at 2268.2 10.32am RUS, small position

adding another here 2265.6

cutting 1 here 2270.5-the other one, perhaps run till 1 pm ?-

EDIT, no, I will probably cut soon (15 minutes), take a short then a long up to 1pm. Let's see if the signals match my hunch.

didn't bother with the short, just held the long up to 1pm....out here at 2273 for a break now.

won't bother anymore today, would guess up from here to 330pm then down, will be curious to see what happens.

10/14/2021 trades I called shown in purple.

buy 2278.5 at 5.03am NY time

pretty good although the better buy was at 545am - I wasn't watching. Virtually same price. Now up 3 points, and will come back just after 7pm for next decision.

still holding long, sold on the rise near the top, added more on this dip,
thinking about 945pm sell.

EDIT: I was 10 minutes late for that sell, was not watching closely, just holding through the dip to the next top an hour later.

OK, resume. Buy 2287.5 aim for an hour on this trade.

Add another at 2284.8, will still give it a chance for up.

13+5=18 points so far.
If I had been more attentive I would have sold at 935, bought 10.30, then sold again 1057=45 points.

dog. added more on this plunge 2282.4 and will get out at any chance near 2284

enough, I got that last call wrong but not bad result. I can see why it's going down, surprised I assessed it as up but will study that on the weekend. Stopping now. Chart shows the good trades, plus what I was doing when simming but not posting here.

EDIT, 1 last forecast:
Buy here 2280.5 and add 2 more if goes under this point.
Go short after 50 minutes

other things to do now.