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Hedging all possible currency pairs at once!

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Aug 25, 2008 7:58pm Aug 25, 2008 7:58pm
  •  cfw123
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
I saw a strategy proposed elsewhere last night that blew my mind. Here it is:

Simultaneously enter both a long and a short position for all possible currency pairs, with a 20 pip stop loss on each trade.

Eventually one will drop below the purchase price by 20 pips, and be stopped out. But the other one will gain instead. If you want, you could pick a take profit -- say another 20 pips (20 pips is easy on the MT4 trading platform modification panel) or more based on experience, and wait for profits. The idea is that to the extent you have time to watch them, don't put any take profit on them, but do so in the event you can't watch them (like sleeping, etc.). The idea is that in the normal course of events, one direction will move more into profit than the stop loss value.

Since each trade takes time to make manually, it is impossible to simultaneously take all positions called for here, but perhaps someone can come up with an EA to do that, although I have never seen one that can do anything like this. Or just limit the pairs to a selected few you can handle.

I think there is lots of room for improvements here. For example, make the take profit higher in the direction of the apparent trend, and make the stop loss lower in the contra trend direction. But some people like to trade contra trend, and might want to do the opposite.

Another possible improvement is to only make one trade for each pair in the direction of the apparent trend (or contra trend for those of you who like to trade that way). What's involved here is the spread loss on each stop loss taken, which perhaps could be avoided.

Of course this is a hedging strategy, but still it is sufficiently different to make it unique in my eperience anyway. I don't know what this would do to margins on minimally funded accounts, but probably not good. I would start this with a demo account, and later move to a live micro account.

I would appreciate all the comments anyone wants to make based on their experience doing something similar. I do think this is something that could be back tested, but would be difficult to do without an EA to do the work.

Charles Wilkes, San Jose, Calif.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:09pm Aug 25, 2008 8:09pm
  •  sarchin
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Member | 73 Posts
you would be creating a 20 pip spread and if the market was consolidating or ranging you would have a hard time getting out of either trade without losing money, but you may take a small profit on a trending market. I say watch the charts, wait for the setup and then enter. less stress and better trades
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:21am Mar 15, 2011 11:21am
  •  fortheex
  • | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
I will try out this startegy with a bit of modification whereby at start of GMT 0 i will open several trase buy and sell on same pairs for example eurusd and will set SL 50 while TP 100 for both, I will monitor it.

I have manually check most of the time a pull back of less than 50pips then the candle will follow the trend either upwards or downward straight > than 100pips.

out of 30 daily candle i've noticed 25 reaches TP 100 ( 100 - 50 =50), while 5 trades experiences pull back the SL reached both sides. 1250 pip - 500 pip = 750 pips

Obviously sometimes TP does not reach 100 but maybe 70 -90 so need to monitor.

this strategy does not require any indicator

let me test it out and i will post my result a week after.

Adious....
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Mar 15, 2011 10:55pm Mar 15, 2011 10:55pm
  •  Dreamliner
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 2,271 Posts
This thread is 2.5 years old and has died.

Quoting fortheex
Disliked
I will try out this startegy with a bit of modification whereby at start of GMT...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Mar 16, 2011 12:02pm Mar 16, 2011 12:02pm
  •  fortheex
  • | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
Quoting Dreamliner
Disliked
This thread is 2.5 years old and has died.
Ignored

Hi DL,

Why not revive it.. maybe i just want to try it out.. i've tried on paper backtest and the results are kind of awesome... just need to test if trailing stop or monitoring needed endlessly.
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:33pm Mar 16, 2011 12:33pm
  •  Dreamliner
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 2,271 Posts
Sounds good to me!

How are you backtesting it? Entering long and short all pairs, stop loss of 20 pips, that's it?

Quoting fortheex
Disliked
Hi DL,

Why not revive it.. maybe i just want to try it out.. i've tried on paper backtest and the results are kind of awesome... just need to test if trailing stop or monitoring needed endlessly.
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:11pm Mar 17, 2011 2:11pm
  •  fortheex
  • | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
Quoting Dreamliner
Disliked
Sounds good to me!

How are you backtesting it? Entering long and short all pairs, stop loss of 20 pips, that's it?
Ignored

Hi DL,

Stop loss of 20pips does not help in this strategy, only SL 50 with TP 100 for eurusd, gpbjpy, usdcad, audusd and gbpusd buy and sell, you might have to leave room of losses in the beginnning and might see the profit in average monthly based on my paper test..

I just can't afford to wake up in the morning to trigger the trade exactly at GMt0 and set the SL and TP for several trades at the same time.

I will start soon with the demo.

Adious...
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:13pm Mar 17, 2011 3:13pm
  •  TarGil
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Member | 11 Posts
try searching for risk arbitrage strats to find more info.

hard to accomplish would require a very strong computing power on your side
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Mar 17, 2011 6:20pm Mar 17, 2011 6:20pm
  •  Dreamliner
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 2,271 Posts
OK if you describe the way you trade this exactly I'll test it forward for a month. So is it like this?

At 00 GMT you open a long and short on all pairs. You set a 50 SL and a 100 TP on all pairs. For all pairs that trigger the TP or the SL you re-enter again at 00 GMT.

Is that correct?

Quoting fortheex
Disliked
Hi DL,

Stop loss of 20pips does not help in this strategy, only SL 50 with TP 100 for eurusd, gpbjpy, usdcad, audusd and gbpusd buy and sell, you might have to leave room of losses in the beginnning and might see the profit in average monthly based on my paper test..

I just can't afford to wake up in the morning to trigger the trade exactly at GMt0 and set the SL and TP for several trades at the same time.

I will start soon with the demo.

Adious...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:07pm Mar 17, 2011 11:07pm
  •  fortheex
  • | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
Quoting Dreamliner
Disliked
OK if you describe the way you trade this exactly I'll test it forward for a month. So is it like this?

At 00 GMT you open a long and short on all pairs. You set a 50 SL and a 100 TP on all pairs. For all pairs that trigger the TP or the SL you re-enter again at 00 GMT.

Is that correct?
Ignored
yes thats the way, no doubt i mentioned that we need to allow few failure, for example today eurusd whipsaw 58pip below and 55pip up this would have defeated the strategy however one of the direction are now killed and i'm waiting for it to move up 100pips to take 50pip profits.
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Oct 20, 2012 6:56am Oct 20, 2012 6:56am
  •  cello1357
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
Hello guys,
lets consider whole of this method to grasp a unique way to forward test,
Now:
in which currencies trades must be run?
how about SL and TP
nice day....
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:07pm Aug 10, 2015 6:07pm
  •  Fr33zerPop
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
This is a pretty old thread, but the discussion is not! I think the flaw with this strategy is in the probabilities. Example: If you randomly trade anything over and over, with a 10 pip take-profit, and a 20 pip stop-loss, it may seem that you're twice as likely to hit your profit as your stop-loss. And that's true! However, you're also going to have double the loss when it does get hit half as often. So, (disregarding all other transaction costs, etc.) you still will float around break-even over the long-term. It still needs an edge.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Sep 2, 2016 12:29pm Sep 2, 2016 12:29pm
  •  Fr33zerPop
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
I actually tried this again, to a bit of success when I let the winners run, and cut the losers short with a stop. However, the only way this works is if there's enough trend movement in the market to clear a profit. Without that trend movement, it's just a matter of time until it stops out.

Now, we're talking about applying this to a hedging strategy, so in theory the actual movement of market shouldn't make a difference. (I've learned that it does, because the market occasionally finds a new "normal" after a pair spikes). But, I think it could work if:

-- We ignore the occasional market-rebalancing (e.g. use as short as time-frame as possible so we can take profits often)
-- We create a mechanical way to set stops based on current market trend movement (e.g. tighter during slow movement)
-- We make sure spread vs. stops is not too large (e.g. this probably won't work on a 1-min chart)
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Edited 9:17am Feb 19, 2021 8:37am | Edited 9:17am
  •  mathBOT
  • | Joined Jul 2020 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Something like this? VERY INTERESTING..... IM TESTING BEST WAY TO CHOOSE GROUPS OF 8 PAIRS TOGETHER
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