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TDA with IMT

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 6, 2021 12:55pm Aug 22, 2019 1:32pm | Edited Feb 6, 2021 12:55pm
Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing

I started this thread after several requests for market analyses. These analyses are applicable to day trading and very short-term swing trading.
These are my personal views of what I think has high probability of unfolding. I am not a licensed trading professional. None of the information that I provide is trading signals or recommendations for trading.

Basics of the analysis
I review every timeframe from largest to smallest, applying principles of Intrinsic Market Timing to discover

  1. the main direction
  2. the timeframe that is in control
  3. the most likely timeframe(s) to see action

Only a summary is provided here; my personal records contain more detail. I sometimes make screen captures to help clarify conditions.

I have other interests and commitments than ForexFactory. I may make several postings in a day, or may go many days with nothing. I do not guarantee responding to questions, enquiries, and comments. If you find benefit in any of the information presented, please be so kind as to comment, citing the specific post. If you find any or all to be total rubbish, please be so kind as to comment, citing the specific post(s). At the very least, I hope that this will provide you a perspective for comparison with your own technical analysis.

If you you feel like posting your own analysis, PLEASE DO NOT! This is not a thread for debating what I present. If you have some comments or questions, please PM me. But again, I do not guarantee responding.

I am not fond of the Ignore button, but...
==============
EDIT July 2020: Spam postings were made during July 2020 from a Forex Factory member who has many problems in his life that he carries over into Forex Factory. Unfortunately, it is not possible to delete these postings except by FF administration. The next best available option was to implement the Ignore feature.
==============
With that all out of the way...

USDCAD
Direction bias: down
Control: W1/D1
Action: H1

Big direction is down. With that said MN1, being a quite large timeframe, is in a rally, resulting in W1 in an up move.
The current phase of this rally is overdue to end and prices drop.
At the moment, H1 is critical in deciding if the rally is ending or will continue at least one more cycle. H1 has spiked above the prior swing high, but has not shown commitment by buyers to continue further up.

CADJPY
Direction bias: down
Control: W1/D1
Action: H1/H4

Big direction is down.
D1 has made a slide sideways that appears to be the buyers' idea of a rally.
H4 will likely go up a bit more, but unless there is strong commitment by buyers, this is going up just to find a level that is good for selling.

Note that I see both of these pairs with down bias, yet CAD is base currency in one and counter currency in the other. This typically produces a set of pairs traveling in opposite directions. Just for fun, you might check a currency correlation indicator and see if you can determine what would cause both pairs to have the same direction bias on high timeframes.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:04pm Aug 22, 2019 11:04pm
I'm thrilled to see this thread being started.
About time for the masterclass to begin...
Wish you success...
And thanks for all the new ideas and concepts you have already provided me with...
  • #3
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:16pm Aug 22, 2019 11:16pm
Looking forward to a good thread. Idea is interesting. Thanks and
Regards.
  • #4
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:19pm Aug 22, 2019 11:19pm
Gbp is not settling. Any take. Is brexit affect causing a change. Thanks and Regards.
  • #5
  • Aug 23, 2019 12:01am Aug 23, 2019 12:01am
Quoting goodways100
Gbp is not settling. Any take. Is brexit affect causing a change. Thanks and Regards.
I do not consider the news when making analyses.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #6
  • Edited Aug 25, 2019 8:27am Aug 24, 2019 11:15am | Edited Aug 25, 2019 8:27am
AUDNZD
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, up
Control: W4
Action: below D1.
Although the long term bias is down, W1 is making a rally, favoring up moves on D1 and lower.
Expect cycling of timeframes below D1. This type of cycling over a wide range of timeframes often results in tight stops being hit.

EURUSD
Direction bias: long term, up. Short term, down
Control: MN8
Action: below H4
Expect cycling of timeframes below H4 that are working to take up D1, W1, and MN1.

GBPUSD
Direction bias: long term, up. Short term, down.
Control: D1
Action: M1/M5/M15
M5 is at a critical price level. If it turns down soon and can breach 1.2275 with conviction, the down cycling has begun that will be working to bring down H4.

USDCAD
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, down.
Control: W1
Action: M15/H1/H4
Expect cycling of low timeframes that are working to bring down H4 and D1.

Did the prior USDCAD analysis help you plan your pip harvesting?
Quote
Big direction is down.
The current phase of this rally is overdue to end and prices drop.
At the moment, H1 is critical in deciding if the rally is ending or will continue at least one more cycle.
H1/H4 end of day perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 41 KB


CADJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, up.
Control: W1
Action: M5/M15
Expect cycling of low timeframes that are working to take up H4 and D1.

Did the prior CADJPY analysis help you plan your pip harvesting?
Quote
Big direction is down.
D1 has made a slide sideways that appears to be the buyers' idea of a rally.
H4 will likely go up a bit more, but unless there is strong commitment by buyers, this is going up just to find a level that is good for selling.
H1/H4 end of day perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 41 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #7
  • Aug 24, 2019 5:51pm Aug 24, 2019 5:51pm
Quoting DrDave
Top Down Analysis with Intrinsic Market Timing I started this thread after several requests for market analyses. These analyses are applicable to day trading and very short-term swing trading. These are my personal views of what I think has high probability of unfolding. I am not a licensed trading professional. None of the information that I provide is trading signals or recommendations for trading. Basics of the analysis I review every timeframe from largest to smallest, applying principles of Intrinsic Market Timing to discover the main direction...
Thank you for your time and effort in starting this thread to share the way how you analyse the market. Imho, i'm totally sure this will benefit many. Yup.
  • #8
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:04am Aug 26, 2019 1:04am
Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD Direction bias: long term, up. Short term, down. Control: D1 Action: M1/M5/M15 M5 is at a critical price level. If it turns down soon and can breach 1.2275 with conviction, the down cycling has begun that will be working to bring down H4. {image}
CORRECTION The level of 1.2275 should be 1.2257
Apologies for any confusion that the first value may have caused.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #9
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:25am Aug 26, 2019 1:25am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} CORRECTION The level of 1.2275 should be 1.2257 Apologies for any confusion that the first value may have caused.
Thanks for the update!
For now it moves up, although there doesn't seem much conviction.
As long as it doesn't clearly BO above 1.2295 I'll stick to your analysis.
  • #10
  • Aug 26, 2019 3:12am Aug 26, 2019 3:12am
Quoting josi
{quote} Thanks for the update! For now it moves up, although there doesn't seem much conviction. As long as it doesn't clearly BO above 1.2295 I'll stick to your analysis.
GBPUSD 1.2257
Does this now meet the criterion?

Attached Image
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #11
  • Aug 26, 2019 3:15am Aug 26, 2019 3:15am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} GBPUSD 1.2257 Does this now meet the criterion? {image}
It sure does, although it will be best to wait for a Pb before entering a sell-trade (M5!)
  • #12
  • Aug 26, 2019 3:39am Aug 26, 2019 3:39am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} GBPUSD 1.2257 Does this now meet the criterion? {image}
Man - nice prediction
I should have taken this trade - it was a sure thing on M15.
  • #13
  • Aug 26, 2019 5:28am Aug 26, 2019 5:28am
Totally correct on AUDNZD - wouldn't have expected that!
CADJPY and AUDUSD moved "hand in hand" - somewhat strange
  • #14
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:04am Aug 26, 2019 9:04am
After hours 26 August 2019

Did the prior AUDNZD analysis help you plan your pip harvesting?
Post #6
Quote
Direction bias: Short term, up
W1 is making a rally, favoring up moves on D1 and lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 37 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #15
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:15am Aug 26, 2019 9:15am
Quoting DrDave
After hours 26 August 2019 Did the prior AUDNZD analysis help you plan your pip harvesting? Post #6 {quote} {image}
should have but didn't as I was on the higher TF.
Have to work on that.
  • #16
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:18am Aug 26, 2019 10:18am
AUDNZD analysis for tomorrow.

Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, down
Control: W4
Action: below D1.

D1 expected to move lower in its pullback to the W1.
Expect cycling of timeframes below H4 as they try to move price up to better buying levels before going down further with each cycle. This type of cycling over a wide range of timeframes often results in tight stops being hit.

AUDNZD H1
Pullback beginning that is expected to lead to an up continuation, taking price to a higher level with more liquidity for selling.
Attached Image
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #17
  • Edited 4:26pm Sep 1, 2019 2:04pm | Edited 4:26pm
Weekend analysis for New week/month 2 September

GBPJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, up.
Control: W1
Action: below D1.

Weekly is extremely overdue to swing up. D1 has the potential to accomplish this. Every rally must be treated as an attempt to move the Weekly up. However, always be prepared for the attempt to fail and the down trend continue in full force.
Expect cycling of timeframes below D1 as they try to move price down then further up. This type of cycling over a wide range of timeframes often results in tight stops being hit.
Every down swing should be considered as a potential cancellation of the attempt to swing up the Weekly chart.

EURJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, cycling
Control: W1
Action: below H4

Weekly is extremely overdue to swing up. D1, H4 due to swing up.
Expect cycling of timeframes below H4 as they try to move price up. This type of cycling over a wide range of timeframes often results in tight stops being hit.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #18
  • Edited 1:24am Sep 2, 2019 1:14am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting DrDave
GBPJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. Short term, up.
Control: W1
Action: below D1.
So - on M15 or below - your 10 pips for today are already banked.
But now you face some resistance on H1-H4-D. So let's see...
Right now - I'd bet on a turn down.
  • #19
  • Sep 2, 2019 2:00am Sep 2, 2019 2:00am
Quoting josi
{quote} So - on M15 or below - your 10 pips for today are already banked. But now you face some resistance on H1-H4-D. So let's see... Right now - I'd bet on a turn down.
Well, and down it went -
So now you can - almost - book another 10 Pip on this ongoing move....
Not bad for another day's work
  • #20
  • Sep 2, 2019 2:20am Sep 2, 2019 2:20am
Quoting josi
{quote} Well, and down it went - So now you can - almost - book another 10 Pip on this ongoing move.... Not bad for another day's work
GBPJPY up-down... No surprise
post #17
Quote
Expect cycling of timeframes below D1
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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