I started this thread after several requests for market analyses. These analyses are applicable to day trading and very short-term swing trading.
These are my personal views of what I think has high probability of unfolding. I am not a licensed trading professional. None of the information that I provide is trading signals or recommendations for trading.
Basics of the analysis
I review every timeframe from largest to smallest, applying principles of Intrinsic Market Timing to discover
- the main direction
- the timeframe that is in control
- the most likely timeframe(s) to see action
Only a summary is provided here; my personal records contain more detail. I sometimes make screen captures to help clarify conditions.
I have other interests and commitments than ForexFactory. I may make several postings in a day, or may go many days with nothing. I do not guarantee responding to questions, enquiries, and comments. If you find benefit in any of the information presented, please be so kind as to comment, citing the specific post. If you find any or all to be total rubbish, please be so kind as to comment, citing the specific post(s). At the very least, I hope that this will provide you a perspective for comparison with your own technical analysis.
If you you feel like posting your own analysis, PLEASE DO NOT! This is not a thread for debating what I present. If you have some comments or questions, please PM me. But again, I do not guarantee responding.
I am not fond of the Ignore button, but...
With that all out of the way...
Direction bias: down
Big direction is down. With that said MN1, being a quite large timeframe, is in a rally, resulting in W1 in an up move.
The current phase of this rally is overdue to end and prices drop.
At the moment, H1 is critical in deciding if the rally is ending or will continue at least one more cycle. H1 has spiked above the prior swing high, but has not shown commitment by buyers to continue further up.
Direction bias: down
Big direction is down.
D1 has made a slide sideways that appears to be the buyers' idea of a rally.
H4 will likely go up a bit more, but unless there is strong commitment by buyers, this is going up just to find a level that is good for selling.
Note that I see both of these pairs with down bias, yet CAD is base currency in one and counter currency in the other. This typically produces a set of pairs traveling in opposite directions. Just for fun, you might check a currency correlation indicator and see if you can determine what would cause both pairs to have the same direction bias on high timeframes.