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  • #1,021
  • Mar 22, 2009 2:32pm Mar 22, 2009 2:32pm
This pair and swissy is getting alot of attention and well it should.

Its good that you all recognise the importance of the level she is at.

My problem is that the price action isnt perfect and considering the gravity and importance of the level you all so clearly see i for one think it wise to wait for a directional bar to avoid any whipsaw which at this level would alter the terrain.

One directional bar here could change everything.Dont wanna get caught in that win ,lose or draw.....g
  • #1,022
  • Mar 22, 2009 2:41pm Mar 22, 2009 2:41pm
EUR/USD
Weekly - Last week's bar pushed up and in between the 20 and 50 where it closed just under the 50% fib retrace. Price moved up past the major 1.3620 S/R at one point, but failed to close above. At 1.3860, we have beautiful confluence between the 61.8% fib and S/R. Watch for price action interaction with this level. Next week's close should tell us bunches.
Daily - The daily candle for last thursday did close above the 50% retrace and the 1.3620 S/R, but the Friday inside bar brought us right back below those levels. In relation to the 20 and the 50, price is over 600 pips away. In accordance with the elastic theory, a sharp pullback to the confluence at around 1.3360 is likely.

GBP/USD
Weekly - On fibos drawn from the week of December 14th, to the week of January 18th, we have price hitting the 50% retrace directly but closing below it. Price closed below the 1.4500 psycho S/R, but on a break look for the resistance confluence at 1.4900. There we have the 61.8% fib, as well as a significant S/R, and the 20 to make it a strong level.
Daily - Price closed above the 1.4370 S/R, and above both the 20 and 50. Friday's bar closed an inside bar, showing trend weakness. A break below the low of this bar could see price going down to 1.4220, which is the 50% fib retrace (Jan 23rd to Feb 9th), and the daily 50. To the upside, resistance can be found at the 1.4500 psycho, 1.4660, and finally 1.4900 (The weekly confluence).

AUD/USD
Weekly - Price closed right on the .6850 S/R, but just below the 61.8% fib. Price also closed between the 20 and the 50 for the first time in 7 or 8 months (Not sure if this is significant or not). Look for the 20 to support any downward moves, as well as the confluence at .6750 area. To the upside, major psycho resistance at .7000, resistance at .7160, and then the two candle highs around .7250.
Daily - Friday's bar closed an inside bar directly below the 61.8% fib, and on top of .6850 S/R. Current levels have price around 400 pips away from both the 20 and 50, leading us to believe an elastic retrace to at least the confluence at .6750 is in the cards. A break below the low of the IB should get us there. On a break to the upside there is the .7000 psycho, as well as some minor resistance around .6950 to keep in mind. As of last Thursday, Aussie made a higher high, which is a major sign of trend change. A close above .7000 should have most thinking buy, if not already.

USD/JPY
Weekly - Currently continueing a well defined downtrend, with the week previous' doji being broken to the downside by a bearish engulfing bar. Price was rejected directly by the confluence at 93.50, which is composed of the 50% retrace and S/R. Price also failed to close below the 20 and 38.2% retrace level, while closing on top of minor support at 95.80. Look for continuation of trend with price testing confluence, and then looking to test support at the 92.20 confluence, and then 91.40.
Daily - Price closed a large inside bar in between the 20 and the 50, and on top of BOSS 20. Look for price action on the 23.6% fib and 20 to confirm a downward move targeting the 95.00 psycho confluence, composed of BOSS 20 and the 38.2% retrace with S/R at 94.50 directly below. By extension be looking for closes below weekly confluence at 93.50 to confirm further downward movement this week.

There are some of the majors for you to think about. I have to run, but when I get back in about 4 hours expect me to finish the majors and then cover a few crosses as well. I still need to read about the last 100 posts, which should also take me awhile. You guys never stop talking!
Bang.
  • #1,023
  • Mar 22, 2009 2:50pm Mar 22, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting Baba G
This pair and swissy is getting alot of attention and well it should.

Its good that you all recognise the importance of the level she is at.

My problem is that the price action isnt perfect and considering the gravity and importance of the level you all so clearly see i for one think it wise to wait for a directional bar to avoid any whipsaw which at this level would alter the terrain.

One directional bar here could change everything.Dont wanna get caught in that win ,lose or draw.....g
I completely agree with you my friend, I just see a lot of signposts pointing to an up move. Ideally we get a sign in the next day of so as to a break down or another run up. We don't care either way, we just try to make money from it, huh...
  • #1,024
  • Mar 22, 2009 3:04pm Mar 22, 2009 3:04pm
Hi everyone..OK I've been looking at what I see again.

I see a large triangle from last trend down. Price was mainly contained within it, however breaking the daily 50 running out of momentum it started to go sideways. Supp at 141 which also touches the 20 Boss.
New triangle forming and maybe a change in direction as the daily 20 is trying to hold up the price. Watching volume and increased activity combined with PA, break of Support at 141, confluence with Fib, break of Boss 20, price would then be back in the area of the triangle, potential for a train journey north.....
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  • #1,025
  • Edited 7:01pm Mar 22, 2009 4:50pm | Edited 7:01pm
I am watching some yens tonight ...
GBPJPY daily has been showing higher lows and lower highs and I am looking for a breakout of the spiral ...

I think EURJPY is also at a very interesting point... It has broken up through a significant level ...If I understood Strats cycles I might say this was the top of one and almost time to short but no price action for it and I don't really have a grasp of them ... If she drops from here it will be a really nice one ...
But if we carry on up the 50ma is another 1000 points away ...

Nicola
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  • #1,026
  • Mar 22, 2009 5:06pm Mar 22, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting strat
Feeling benevolent today as more and more of our group are moving forward in their Price Action education.

So here are my EURGBP charts - if you are putting in the time, effort and work and reading AND understanding, your charts should look something similar (data feed permitting).

Go back and read my post on perfection when you see the hammer.

There is so much price action on there, I'm thinking of asking my one legged blind old man with asthma if he could have followed it.

[color=red][b]Don't...
I am a total newb as my name implies and I'm trying to get to grips with the patterns etc by following J16. My question is how to read the daily EUR/GBP charts. Would I be right in thinking we've just had a dbhlc reinforced by having hit this level twice recently and that I should therefore be looking to short? The only thing that holding me back is that the weekly trend is still up. Any thoughts/comments would be greatly appreciated.
  • #1,027
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:27pm Mar 22, 2009 7:27pm
i sell usd jpy on 9585 , sl = 9988 tp = 8888

i want to know if i trade long term and follow the trend as strats mean

thanks for the answer

regard,

suma
  • #1,028
  • Mar 22, 2009 7:28pm Mar 22, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting TotalNewbie
I am a total newb as my name implies and I'm trying to get to grips with the patterns etc by following J16. My question is how to read the daily EUR/GBP charts. Would I be right in thinking we've just had a dbhlc reinforced by having hit this level twice recently and that I should therefore be looking to short? The only thing that holding me back is that the weekly trend is still up. Any thoughts/comments would be greatly appreciated.
I'm a novice at PA but will take a shot at replying to this.

I don't see the DHLC on the daily. The highs of the two bars are 14 pips apart on my feed and on a DHLC the low close of the second bar should be below the first bar. On this example, the first bar is a long bull bar and this is not even close.

It is pulling away from a weekly SR and might go short, but I do not see confirming PA at this point.

Comments welcome
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"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
  • #1,029
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:15pm Mar 22, 2009 8:15pm
An observation if I may and it's easy for me to say just coming in 1 hour before NY closes due to my trip.

The next step in learning is how to use the skills we have acquired. This in itself is a skill.

We must be very careful not to over analyse and over think - something for which I am also guilty. I love nothing more but to look at charts and think through every possible scenario, but for what? It doesn't get you anywhere.

One of my fears with teaching my style/method would be that I would pass on my over analyical approach. The last thing we should be doing is bringing a M5, M15, H1 mentality to trading the Daily time frame. The beauty about trading the Daily time frame is that you plan your trade, put the trade on and let it work itself out, in other words trade the plan.

Planning the trade only requires a 2 or 3 minute study of each pair after 5pm NY time each day then placing our stop/limit orders and then - living your life.

You do not need to sit and watch the one eyed monster all day, you do not need to interfere with your plan, you do not need to do anything further until 5pm NY time next day.

The absolute worst thing for anyone trading the Daily to do is watch what happens on a shorter time frame or watch the Daily candle DURING trading hours. We don't care what goes on within that Daily candle - all we are concerned with after 5pm NY time is where the candle closes and where it's been.

This gives us the best of both worlds - financial freedom

Now, instead of thinking what USDCHF should or shoudn't do or why a pair did what it did, just look at what the market is telling you. Use what the market is telling you to your advantage.

Ok, smart ass, I hear you say, "what is the market telling you?" If you have to ask this question then you have really answered it yourself.

The market is not doing anything, it is waiting. What is it waiting for? I have absolutely no idea except I know that when it gets it, it will MOVE.

We must always be aware of what moves this market - it is not us tadpoles - the market is moved by the big players - the banks, the institutions, the trading houses, the Market Makers - when it's quiet like this, they too are waiting for their "bosses" - world banks, government banks who in turn are waiting for decisions from economic and government financial specialists.

We must think LIKE the big boys - don't think against them. We need to let them reveal their intentions and ride on their coat tails. Remember when Dr. Joe visited CME - all he saw was the floor traders just FOLLOWING the market - when it went up, they bought - when it went down, they sold. It really IS that simple despite all today's electronic widgetry and gadgetry.

As an example - look at EURJPY - it's still cranking away as if there were no tomorrow. I can't remember how many posts in the last 3 weeks were asking is it time to short - my answer was always the same - it keeps on going up until it stops going up. Thank you EURJPY (and of course, Dr Joe).

The point I'm trying to make is don't let your new found technical skills stand in the way or blind fold your common sense. A common sense trader will always outperform a technical trader.

We need to look no further than our resident pizza man - he uses what he has learned with a BIG helping of common sense. Dr. Joe realised all his academic qualifications were worthless and ditched them in favour of common sense - doing what the market tells you.

Didn't realise I had got on my soapbox again - sorry
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,030
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:24pm Mar 22, 2009 8:24pm
I forgot to congratulate you yesterday. 1000 posts in the first month of your thread; that speaks volumes.
  • #1,031
  • Mar 22, 2009 8:25pm Mar 22, 2009 8:25pm
USD/CHF
Weekly - Large bearish engulfing bar closed down below the 20 but above the 50, stopped dead in it's tracks by the 50% retracement level.The last bar closed on top of S/R at 1.1230, but should continue downward. Look for price to test 1.1020, which is a confluence consisting of the 50, the 61.8% fib, and S/R.
Daily - Price has closed down below all MA's except BOSS 50, with the 20 crossing over the 50 last Thursday. You know what that means, expect lower prices ahead. Friday and today's bars have closed as inside bars, with the lows all touching the 50% fib. On a break lower, watch for price to test the confluence at 1.1020. To the upside we have minor resistance at 1.1300, and the 38.2% fib at around 1.1350. Past these levels, there is daily resistance at 1.1425, and a big weekly S/R at 1.1470, more daily resistance at 1.1530, and then the 1.1600 psycho. The 20, 50, and BOSS 20 all converge at around 1.1550 to 1.1600, making this area prime for a trade with price action confirmation to the short side.

USD/CAD
Weekly - Last bar closed below 1.2400 S/R and 50% fib, but was unable to close below the 20 and support at 1.2250. The upward trendline formed over the last 3 months is now broken, and is now resistance. On a break of 1.2400, look for a test of 1.2580 which is in confluence with the 38.2% fib. To the downside, we have the confluence at 1.2250 with the 61.8% fib and the 20 MA.
Daily - Friday's bar gave us an inside bar, along with Sunday's bar (big surprise), on top of BOSS 20. Price is now below both the 20 and the 50, and the big 1.2400 resistance. On a break above Friday's inside bar, which is above S/R at 1.2400, resistance to the upside would include the 1.2580 area with the 38.2% fib, and the old trendline support now turned resistance. Also, the 20 and the 50. To the downside, there is daily support at 1.2330, and the confluence at 1.2250. An eventual testing of the quadruple top at 1.3000 is likely, so long entries over shorts advised.

EUR/GBP
Weekly - Long Bullish candle came up on the .9500 resistance, but was unable to close above it. The downward trendline formed by the two previous tops was broken, and is to be seen if it will turn support. Price is over 500 pips above the 20, and much farther above the 50. A close above .9500 would be a higher high, suggesting a test of the highest close at .9620 area. On formation of bearish price action, support to the downside would include .9100 and .9000, both psychos.
Daily - Thursday and Friday closed as inside bars to the massive bullish candle on Wednesday. Look for price action to confirm a bullish move on top of the daily support at .9300, and set targets for .9500 psycho and .9610.
Bang.
  • #1,032
  • Edited 9:47pm Mar 22, 2009 8:44pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting Trumpcard
Well it's certainly taken a good 6 or so hours to go over this entire thread, certainly an entertaining and educational read - thanks Strat for giving us your time and patience....
Congratulations, Trumpcard.
Now isn't this post far more sensible and meaningful than the one you first posted (and deleted)? You also seem to have grown up during this process - I don't see the "beer has been good to me" in your signature anymore!

Now to answer your question. There are many parts to the answer. The main answer is that they are used by the "big boys" - the banks, financial institutions, hedges, funds etc who trigger orders based on these (remember the Merchant Wanker). These then become self fulfilling as more and more people use them much like Fib Levels are becoming more reliable. We want to trade WITH them rather than STAND in FRONT of them.

The formula of an EMA puts more weight on the most recent data whereas an SMA treats all data equally. The shorter EMA is thus reacting sooner (don't forget it is still lagging) to the latest data giving us a closer "watch" on immediate prices. The longer term SMA is ignoring the short term "noise" and providing us with a "smoother" picture of prices. Don't forget that all indicators, MAs etc are just mathematical derivations of price so that we can "see" price HISTORY differently.

You should also note that we do not use MAs to trigger signals - they are only there as one of the tools in our tool box to guide us in our analysis. Neither do we use them for predicting future prices - only PRICE ACTION can do that.

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,033
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:07pm Mar 22, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting rogueforex
Can you walk me thru this? You have posted bullish analysis on this pair over the last few days, we are sitting on a significant M,W and D SR level and a 50% fib. The powers that be tried to move the price lower but buyers came in and closed the day with a mallet formation (a big headed hammer) and Friday is another day of uncertainty. I think we are setting up to run up and look to resist at the 1.2534 level (another fib and important SR level). Plus the whole thing is an ascending triangle...

Thanks,
Lance
I was guilty of over analysing and getting into too much detail instead of stepping back and looking at the BIG PICTURE.

So yes, the Daily did look bullish with that hammer BUT it is not going to go far without the BOSS guidance and direction. As soon as the Daily steps out of line, the BOSS will come back and knock her back in line. Just in case the BOSS falls asleep at the switch, the BIG BOSS is watching over her and will keep HER in check.

Remember, I said that we should all be striving to analyse charts just by LOOKING as our Knight in Shining White Armour does. I have found that my 30 second glance across the time frames of each pair is beginning to mean more than a structured detailed analysis. After this review of the BIG PICTURE, it was obvious the trend was down and that the Daily action is just a blip in the down trend.

Looking at where we are now on the Daily is an almost perfect, symmetrical pennant formation which is a continuation pattern of the trend. So, all things being equal, short orders should be placed...............................
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,034
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:10pm Mar 22, 2009 9:10pm
Quoting lordgbengs
Thanks for this thread,well i am one of the lurkers here,because i believe if i have to post i have to post sth sensible and reasonable....
We have no problem with lurkers who post positive and constructive posts to enhance the learning process as you have posted here. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,035
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:13pm Mar 22, 2009 9:13pm
Quoting FxPippy
Hi everyone..OK I've been looking at what I see again.

I see a large triangle from last trend down. Price was mainly contained within it, however breaking the daily 50 running out of momentum it started to go sideways. Supp at 141 which also touches the 20 Boss.
New triangle forming and maybe a change in direction as the daily 20 is trying to hold up the price. Watching volume and increased activity combined with PA, break of Support at 141, confluence with Fib, break of Boss 20, price would then be back in the area of the triangle, potential...
Good thought process - keep on the right track!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,036
  • Edited 10:22pm Mar 22, 2009 9:41pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting elitejets
I am watching some yens tonight ...
GBPJPY daily has been showing higher lows and lower highs and I am looking for a breakout of the spiral ...

I think EURJPY is also at a very interesting point... It has broken up through a significant level ...If I understood Strats cycles I might say this was the top of one and almost time to short but no price action for it and I don't really have a grasp of them ... If she drops from here it will be a really nice one ...
But if we carry on up the 50ma is another 1000 points away ...

Nicola
Be careful with a GBPJPY long breakout - do you really want to trade into the BOSS 20?

EURJPY - My cycles are like Ray Charles "I'm Busted" - trends demolish ALL and ANY cycles like a hot knife through butter.

This pair does not respect anything or anyone and is turning out to be a really good Forex ATM.

My momentum is accelerating on a daily basis but that is obvious for all to see.

Yes, it must stop SOMEWHERE and WE DO KNOW WHERE - we don't know the when bit yet (despite my continual search). BUT before it goes down, it has to get on the turntable, in other words, it has to STOP going up first, before it can go down.

I am not looking for anywhere to short this, only where to get out! At the risk of pre-empting someone to think short (NO), I notice we are at a full swing retrace, fully absorbing the MMs previous stop run and , out of curiousity, looked at where price is relative to the 200 (yes, bj, I do look occassionally) as this could be another "trigger". As you know, I have lost $thousands trying to call "tops".

When you see a trend as strong as this, think of all the energy the market has in it to do this. Then think of your physics class " A body in motion stays in motion in the direction of that motion until acted upon by a force in the opposite direction" and "Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, only transformed from one form to another".

In layman's terms, there is a huge energy pushing this ball up a never ending steep hill. What happens when that energy is removed? What happens if a greater energy came in now in the opposite direction?

Do we know anything about this energy?

Damn, got on my soapbox again - sorry
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,037
  • Mar 22, 2009 9:58pm Mar 22, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting AminAS
EUR/USD
Weekly - Last week's bar pushed up and in between the 20 and 50 where it closed just under the 50% fib retrace. Price moved up past the major 1.3620 S/R at one point, but failed to close above. At 1.3860, we have beautiful confluence between the 61.8% fib and S/R. Watch for price action interaction with this level. Next week's close should tell us bunches.
Daily - The daily candle for last thursday did close above the 50% retrace and the 1.3620 S/R, but the Friday inside bar brought us right back below...
Amin, this is very disappointing. I trusted you to provide an End of Week analysis at the End of the week and instead you post it at the beginning of the week. This reveals to us your personality and character.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,038
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:08pm Mar 22, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting TotalNewbie
I am a total newb as my name implies and I'm trying to get to grips with the patterns etc by following J16. My question is how to read the daily EUR/GBP charts. Would I be right in thinking we've just had a dbhlc reinforced by having hit this level twice recently and that I should therefore be looking to short? The only thing that holding me back is that the weekly trend is still up. Any thoughts/comments would be greatly appreciated.
TotalNewbie, you will never rid yourself of your name unless you follow the Path of Learning. You were directed on here from another thread but instead of following the Path of Learning, you have just turned to the back page hoping to find the answers. The answers ARE on here but you have to follow the Path of Learning. There is NO shortcut in the process of learning. The Path of Learning starts at the beginning, if you don't know where the beginning is then find the Path of Learning.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,039
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:12pm Mar 22, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting sumakianlee
i sell usd jpy on 9585 , sl = 9988 tp = 8888

i want to know if i trade long term and follow the trend as strats mean

thanks for the answer

regard,

suma
Tha ANSWER is on HERE but first you have to take the Path of Learning
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,040
  • Mar 22, 2009 10:21pm Mar 22, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting bjohn34
I'm a novice at PA but will take a shot at replying to this.

I don't see the DHLC on the daily. The highs of the two bars are 14 pips apart on my feed and on a DHLC the low close of the second bar should be below the first bar. On this example, the first bar is a long bull bar and this is not even close.

It is pulling away from a weekly SR and might go short, but I do not see confirming PA at this point.

Comments welcome
Thank you, bj, but I would have preferred you not reply to those looking for a free meal.

From your point of view, you did as good a job as anyone on here so well done, you should be proud.

I don't know what the J16 strict definition of "tweezer" tops and bottoms is but for me, I want to see them EQUAL or at least within 1 or 2 pips. Anything more, and it is a LOWER high or HIGHER bottom
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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