I haven't posted on here for a couple of weeks. Had a few things to take care of so it's not been top of my priorities list to be honest. But here goes.
Last week we saw a small rally in the Aussie Dollar as the RBA removed their easing bias from their rate statement. Although they did this, they still kept the same economic concerns there, meaning the fundamental stance hasn't completely changed, it's now just more neutral. Sterling had a decent week against most other currencies, although data was mixed. We saw a fantastic number in the NFP too which prompted some more buying in the U.S. Dollar as this had investors pondering on whether this could give the Fed reason to hike rates sooner.
Monday 8 June 2015
On Monday we have continued G7 meetings taking place. This could cause movements if anything based on Monetary Policy or the Greece situation comes up. We then have building permits from Canada which is expected to come in a lot worse than previously.
Tuesday 9 June 2015
Tuesday is a bit of a non-day. We have some Australian and Chinese news but that is all.
Wednesday 10 June 2015
Wednesday is definitely the highlight of the week this week. We first have Stevens speaking from the RBA. Watch out for anything hawkish coming from Stevens as the RBA removed their easing bias last week so the AUD will be prone to hawkish comments, which could give the AUD a further lift.
Manufacturing production is forecast to come in weaker than last month from the U.K. which could give Sterling a break from recent gains. Mark Carney is also speaking on Wednesday.
The most important event this week is definitely the RBNZ rate decision and accompanying rate statement. Last time the RBNZ met they mentioned the possibility of a rate cut which, as can be seen below, provided a huge NZD sell-off.
The market has priced in a rate cut heavily, although there are mixed views on what the RBNZ are going to do. Some believe that they'll cut in both June and July, while others believe they'll not cut at all this year. If we don't get a cut, it's likely that the NZD will rally because of the sheer volume of selling coming into this event.
If we get a cut, and the statement shows that their easing bias is still there, I'll be looking to get in short again on the NZD.
Thursday 11 June 2015
On Thursday we first have the employment change and unemployment rate. The employment change is forecast to be much better than the last reading, so this should provide some short term support to the AUD.
We then have retail sales data from the U.S. which is forecast to be much better than previously. As we know, the Fed is currently data dependent so this should provide us with some support for the U.S. Dollar.
Later on that day we also have Poloz speaking.
Friday 12 June 2015
On Friday we have PPI and Consumer Sentiment coming from the U.S. which are again both forecast to be positive. If we get strong data on Thursday, this should provide us with a great opportunity to get Long on U.S. Dollars again.
Summary
Overall, it's looking like it could be a strong week for the U.S. Dollar with obviously the RBNZ rate and statement the main event of the week.
In the next couple of days I'll be doing a run down on each central bank and their current stance in the market which should help for determining direction.
Hope everyone has a great week.
Last week we saw a small rally in the Aussie Dollar as the RBA removed their easing bias from their rate statement. Although they did this, they still kept the same economic concerns there, meaning the fundamental stance hasn't completely changed, it's now just more neutral. Sterling had a decent week against most other currencies, although data was mixed. We saw a fantastic number in the NFP too which prompted some more buying in the U.S. Dollar as this had investors pondering on whether this could give the Fed reason to hike rates sooner.
Monday 8 June 2015
On Monday we have continued G7 meetings taking place. This could cause movements if anything based on Monetary Policy or the Greece situation comes up. We then have building permits from Canada which is expected to come in a lot worse than previously.
Tuesday 9 June 2015
Tuesday is a bit of a non-day. We have some Australian and Chinese news but that is all.
Wednesday 10 June 2015
Wednesday is definitely the highlight of the week this week. We first have Stevens speaking from the RBA. Watch out for anything hawkish coming from Stevens as the RBA removed their easing bias last week so the AUD will be prone to hawkish comments, which could give the AUD a further lift.
Manufacturing production is forecast to come in weaker than last month from the U.K. which could give Sterling a break from recent gains. Mark Carney is also speaking on Wednesday.
The most important event this week is definitely the RBNZ rate decision and accompanying rate statement. Last time the RBNZ met they mentioned the possibility of a rate cut which, as can be seen below, provided a huge NZD sell-off.
The market has priced in a rate cut heavily, although there are mixed views on what the RBNZ are going to do. Some believe that they'll cut in both June and July, while others believe they'll not cut at all this year. If we don't get a cut, it's likely that the NZD will rally because of the sheer volume of selling coming into this event.
If we get a cut, and the statement shows that their easing bias is still there, I'll be looking to get in short again on the NZD.
Thursday 11 June 2015
On Thursday we first have the employment change and unemployment rate. The employment change is forecast to be much better than the last reading, so this should provide some short term support to the AUD.
We then have retail sales data from the U.S. which is forecast to be much better than previously. As we know, the Fed is currently data dependent so this should provide us with some support for the U.S. Dollar.
Later on that day we also have Poloz speaking.
Friday 12 June 2015
On Friday we have PPI and Consumer Sentiment coming from the U.S. which are again both forecast to be positive. If we get strong data on Thursday, this should provide us with a great opportunity to get Long on U.S. Dollars again.
Summary
Overall, it's looking like it could be a strong week for the U.S. Dollar with obviously the RBNZ rate and statement the main event of the week.
In the next couple of days I'll be doing a run down on each central bank and their current stance in the market which should help for determining direction.
Hope everyone has a great week.