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Stack MM

  • #261
  • Apr 4, 2019 11:01am Apr 4, 2019 11:01am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} That is reason people thinks i'm adorable. My speak is sexy. You never knows Im telling but sounds mysterious and deep
heck i never said youre sexy, not me
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #262
  • Apr 4, 2019 11:01am Apr 4, 2019 11:01am
Quoting PipFlak
{quote} Scary thing is I am starting to understand it. Sorry Juan just kidding.
I think are the number colors
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #263
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:23pm Apr 4, 2019 1:23pm
Quoting EcoTrader
Your paring selection isn't optimal and in fact could be problematic. You don't seem to have a filter for ordng pairs by strongest versus weakest.
hello...i am a beginner...and i want to grow up with my trading strategies. may you show me how to use the filters please.

thanks in advance.
  • #264
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:33pm Apr 4, 2019 1:33pm
Quoting Peterambrosi
{quote} hello...i am a beginner...and i want to grow up with my trading strategies. may you show me how to use the filters please. thanks in advance.
Its a set of rules. You only need have a system/strategy and apply that rules. If you don't know how start, post here a Trader Explorer ( like this thread ) with 2 months age for can see what adjustments will need Stack MM for adapt to your needs. I'm sure will be good for others see how deal with this.

Welcome to the boat
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #265
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:07pm Apr 4, 2019 5:07pm
Question ... @Brain, your calculations for the formula are based on Calendar days, e.g. 6 weeks x 7 days = 42 but FX is only a 5 day week, so using 7 instead of 5 will depreciate/appreciate the calculations by 28.6% or am I on the wrong track?
When you are successful perhaps give a thought to others ... Kiva dot org
  • #266
  • Edited 8:21pm Apr 4, 2019 5:25pm | Edited 8:21pm
I got bored.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Stack MM.pdf   183 KB | 345 downloads
  • #267
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:26pm Apr 4, 2019 5:26pm
Quoting PayItForward
Question ... @Brain, your calculations for the formula are based on Calendar days, e.g. 6 weeks x 7 days = 42 but FX is only a 5 day week, so using 7 instead of 5 will depreciate/appreciate the calculations by 28.6% or am I on the wrong track?
Good question.
  • #268
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:26pm Apr 4, 2019 10:26pm
Quoting PayItForward
Question ... @Brain, your calculations for the formula are based on Calendar days, e.g. 6 weeks x 7 days = 42 but FX is only a 5 day week, so using 7 instead of 5 will depreciate/appreciate the calculations by 28.6% or am I on the wrong track?
Its other way ( not idea if it can be better ) but as calendar is used by reports then its metrics I use in formula
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #269
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:28pm Apr 4, 2019 10:28pm
Quoting PipFlak
I got bored. {image}
Hahaha. Very funny
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #270
  • Edited Apr 5, 2019 12:27am Apr 4, 2019 10:39pm | Edited Apr 5, 2019 12:27am
I would like comment current non recoverable rules are the base. But you have more advanced rules to add as split exit time by swap. If is positive you use a longer exit time that if is negative. Really you can save a lot of pips if all rules are used...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #271
  • Edited 12:26am Apr 6, 2019 12:09am | Edited 12:26am
Today i will explain how calculate pips edge but is not easy as you can think. While i prepare all material you check this capture.

When you have a trade with max X pips DD moving in a range, how you can measure his effective "better point of exit"?

Pips edge calculation uses the base for later get the most important rule. Retracement edge ( third rule in non recoverable exits )
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  • #272
  • Edited 6:22am Apr 6, 2019 3:18am | Edited 6:22am
First we have understand what we want take really. If we use only max DD ( top ) then we only will know max length movement. But this value itself don't contains any information about how was the movement.

As price moves as waves we need get how were that waves movements along trade life. And we need do it enough simpler for pack all that info in a simple formula. Then we will get an approximation enough valid for can work.

We need first some samples of trades for get this information. Then we will split trades as 2 areas:

1) Profit area ( mainly closed trades )
2) Loss area ( opened trades )

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Now we will need take a few samples. For do it easier we will take only 3 trades along 3 strategic areas. All sample trades should be older possible around areas

1) Top ( trade with max DD )
2 ) Middle ( trade closer to half max DD )
3 ) Quarter ( trade closer to 1/4 of max DD )

The candidates:

1) GA ( -650p )
2) GU ( -266p )
3) UH ( -146p )

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How trades looks in chart
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We will continue in next post...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #273
  • Apr 6, 2019 6:25am Apr 6, 2019 6:25am
I would like remember that before set Stack MM rules you need an account running at least 2 months with bad closes blocked. This is due we need clear information about how stack cleans and how moves non recoverable trades

Thread TE is an example. At this moment we are filling Stack MM rules for that system. You can do same with yours...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #274
  • Apr 6, 2019 10:00am Apr 6, 2019 10:00am
Now we will search waves top/bottoms. This is sometimes subjective as it happens in UH capture ( its a breakout following for big retracement ).

TF to search waves is always higher possible. We need at least 2 waves for make calculations but 3 should be recommended. We will count pips of every top/bottom from trade open.

As time edge we have 2 way to calculate pips edge:

1) Precision. Apply formula per pair
2) Fast. Take trades as explained in previous post ( 3 levels per area )

Formula for get trade pivot ( pips edge ) is:

1) We take avg of every reference trade top/bottoms. This will set edge area

GA: ( 560+178+650+144+512+85 ) / 6 = 354p
GU: ( -20+254+40+254 ) / 4 = 132p
UH: ( -10+144+68+133+33+82 ) / 6 = 75p

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2) We take calculated pivots in step 1 and we get their weighted average. Top level have more weight than middle and 1/4 level.

( ( 354*3 ) + ( 132*2 ) + 75 ) / 3 = 233p

And 233p will be the edge in all trades. As many people will agree, this limit will be high in low volatility trades but as is a low precision formula then we have take a balance between all pairs used

The recommended for optimize closes is precision way. Formula is same but how is applied is different. It will need a tool for do it then it will be explained in future posts after finish base explanation
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #275
  • Apr 6, 2019 10:34am Apr 6, 2019 10:34am
Quoting braintheboss
Now we will search waves top/bottoms. This is sometimes subjective as it happens in UH capture ( its a breakout following for big retracement ). TF to search waves is always higher possible. We need at least 2 waves for make calculations but 3 should be recommended. We will count pips of every top/bottom from trade open. As time edge we have 2 way to calculate pips edge: 1) Precision. Apply formula per pair 2) Fast. Take trades as explained in previous post ( 3 levels per area ) Formula for get trade pivot ( pips edge ) is: 1) We take avg of every...
Very interesting...
  • #276
  • Apr 6, 2019 10:45am Apr 6, 2019 10:45am
Quoting PipFlak
{quote} Very interesting...
As you can see edge is not big comparing with max DD. And when you check avg DD per trade, edge is above then a big percentage of trades will be recovered
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #277
  • Apr 6, 2019 10:56am Apr 6, 2019 10:56am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} As you can see edge is not big comparing with max DD. And when you check avg DD per trade, edge is above then a big percentage of trades will be recovered
You better copyright this stuff before somebody bundles it up and tries to sell it.
You are going way beyond just a general theory when you start introducing mathematical calculations and algorithms.
  • #278
  • Apr 6, 2019 11:39am Apr 6, 2019 11:39am
Quoting PipFlak
{quote} You better copyright this stuff before somebody bundles it up and tries to sell it. You are going way beyond just a general theory when you start introducing mathematical calculations and algorithms.
It's quite common. Anyway I've always thought any copy can surpass original. How implement this MM as tool is not only use the formulas. There is the trick
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #279
  • Apr 7, 2019 5:51am Apr 7, 2019 5:51am
Very nice thread.
Your trade selection method looks very good. High win%

Looking at your past closed trades, it looks like your trading method is a little similar to mine (mean revision to some extent).
In my back-testing prior to going live this past September, I had several trades that ran off 1,000 or more pip losses. One of my backtest trades showed a whopping 8,000 pip loss back in 2007 I believe. (That is why I implemented a somewhat loose stop loss that doesn't whipsaw me but tries to avoid disasters like that one)

Have you back-tested your pair selection method? and if so how far? and did the worst case scenarios help develop this exit strategy?

Thanks in advance
Model 3 All Time Pips: -887
  • #280
  • Apr 7, 2019 6:10am Apr 7, 2019 6:10am
Quoting RedWingFan
Very nice thread. Your trade selection method looks very good. High win% Looking at your past closed trades, it looks like your trading method is a little similar to mine (mean revision to some extent). In my back-testing prior to going live this past September, I had several trades that ran off 1,000 or more pip losses. One of my backtest trades showed a whopping 8,000 pip loss back in 2007 I believe. (That is why I implemented a somewhat loose stop loss that doesn't whipsaw me but tries to avoid disasters like that one) Have you back-tested your...
I don't let that kind of trades opened. This is main reason I have a non recoverable exits. Anyway as you well pointed if you don't close some kind of trades it can go very deep. I have a good example in my develop TE
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With non recoverable exits you reduce losses in very bad trades. But as I will explain in last rule ( retracement ) it depends trade moment. Is not same close a bad trade is at range that one started a breakout after be some time in range

Basically I dont expect any close 2x bigger than pips edge explained in previous post. That as worst case
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