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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Trade 3 would have been too risky for me. I do not like to jump onto such a move and I did not expect that price will fall that much. However, you managed your trade nicely.
Agreed, it was a close call whether I take that trade or not, but there was JUST enough for me to take the trade. Having a nightmare today, update to follow...
Quoting Mr. Pip
I 've done all I cal to let price know what to do. Now I will sit here and wait for them to get the message. {image}
The market have feelings to... LOL
Are you profitable? I am not... yet...
Quoting AzizLight
YM +25, -38, -35, +1, +44 -3 for the day I get into trouble every time I try to predict a market turn without waiting for confirmation. Many times I'm right but can't afford the stop loss I SHOULD be using in that situation and get taken out trying to be cute with a small stop below or above the 78 instead of the whole swing. So I really need to focus on waiting for price to give me a short term expectation failure before trying to trade what I'm just guessing is longer term exhaustion. Apparently I have to learn from this a few dozen times...
Lmao, I have a very similar issue, as I will show you from today too!!

So, my first trade was on a completion on a 1:1 and at structure but Against OF. Clearly the market was in a continual climb up but I read this confluence as a green light (also in the golden zone of a longer term pattern). My main issue here is that I am trading the short term so should have gone with that, and only been looking for longs.

My second trade was a trade I took when I went out for an hour. As I did not really have time to analyze my first trade I basically made the same mistake again!! Stupid really but I have to learn!!

My third trade was a different story, got home, analyzed my trades, realised I am stupid, then took a trade in line with OF. didn't get the best rotation to start with then got a good candle so took the trade, probably should have taken profit at the yellow area but wanted to trail to see if price continued upwards.

-30, -52, +30 so finished -52 for the day.

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New rule for me is not to trade from my phone without access to my tick charts!!
Been out almost all day but i found this little boy.
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YM - long at 25107, hoping this one finally gets me back into the green/black today.
Was Fast, Stopped on Trail.
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Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} Lmao, I have a very similar issue
Many times those beautiful rotation candles are BIG FAT LIARS!! Especially when I don't pay attention to the order flow and trade in the wrong direction.
Quoting bmdenton23
YM - long at 25107, hoping this one finally gets me back into the green/black today.
GO BULLS!
Quoting bmdenton23
YM - long at 25107, hoping this one finally gets me back into the green/black today.
Still long at 25107, we approached structure with very good momentum, the pull back and further rotation extends the profit target.
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Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} Still long at 25107, we approached structure with very good momentum, the pull back and further rotation extends the profit target.
And I'm out for +67
So I ended up making money today even with a negative point total due to different position sizing.
I'll report the actual points and then the prorated points

Wins: +41, +30, +1, +67
Losers: -46, -39, -68
-------------------------------
Total: -14

The prorated version:
Winners: +41, +30, +.25, +67
Losers: -37, -39, -41
-------------------------------------
Total: +21 ....ish


Hard fought day, with almost all of the winners being after lunch.
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Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Sorry to hear. Could you please post a chart with your entries?
Hi evocpr19 thanks for agreeing to look at my trades. Chart is attached.

Notes are:
T1: Stopped to the pip. Should have left more room. Would have hit TP. Should have got out with +50 pips on trailing stop
T2: Got in late but saw very strong downward move on candle immediately following entry so stopped out through fear at BE. Should have left run with potential TP at +72 pip on trailing stop
T3: BE trade - I think this was a good entry but trade reversed.
T4: Got too fearful and moved SL too close again for +10. If placed SL above structure would have made +92 pips.
T5: Saw Rotation candle and again losing trade. I think I did everything right here. Expectation failure
T6: Saw a rotation candle for a buy but in hindsight should have been looking for Shorts therefore Error trade. Hit SL very quickly
T7: You can't really see on print out attached but was looking at a weak pull back for a Sell. Thought price would continue to motor south but it immediately reversed sharply.
T8: Good trade albeit only a 50% reversal. Hit SL.
T9: Got in late and should have noted reversal candle and never placed trade. Price continued to make a new high breaking structure. Had I traded correctly I should have placed SL higher which would have been hit.

All in all terrible decision making on the whole especially trade 7 and 6.
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Quoting PeteH
{quote} Hi evocpr19 thanks for agreeing to look at my trades. Chart is attached. Notes are: T1: Stopped to the pip. Should have left more room. Would have hit TP. Should have got out with +50 pips on trailing stop T2: Got in late but saw very strong downward move on candle immediately following entry so stopped out through fear at BE. Should have left run with potential TP at +72 pip on trailing stop T3: BE trade - I think this was a good entry but trade reversed. T4: Got too fearful and moved SL too close again for +10. If placed SL above structure...
Regardless of the fact that I do not agree with your initial analysis about what to expect (maybe more clear when you watch the chart; less visible on the time of your first entry), you have first to decide what you trade. The different view of what to expect, would still not have a big impact on your initial trade.
Since you have drawn the yellow line (in my chart the red lines), I guess this was what you wanted to trade. So price corrected to 78,4 fib, rotation up. So why did any SL hit? What is your main swing (reference swing) ? where should be the stop?.
Lets have a look what would have happened if you had your stop at the right place (below your reference swing), look how much time would have passed to still exit with profit!
You try to trade different orderflows (immediate and longer term orderflow). Each orderflows has its own SL. If you look at the 4 ticks trade. Where should be SL?. Why did you exit at that point (if this would have happened on the next swing, I would understand).
The last trades are disregarding the context of yesterdays PA and what price achieved today. But this is not the essential issue.

It appears that you want to avoid by all means that price runs against you. You cannot ensure that you enter always at the perfect spot. However, you need to know, when your entry is not valid anymore. If the required SL is too big, switch to immediate ordeflow or wait for a better opportunity.

PS: Please do not feel attacked by me, I want to help you. If something sounds hard to you, it is not my intention. It is more my English.

Hope this helps

Update: Just saw on my chart is written "NO NSL". This is wrong, should be "NO NSH".
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Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Regardless of the fact that I do not agree with your initial analysis about what to expect (maybe more clear when you watch the chart; less visible on the time of your first entry), you have first to decide what you trade. The different view of what to expect, would still not have a big impact on your initial trade. Since you have drawn the yellow line (in my chart the red lines), I guess this was what you wanted to trade. So price corrected to 78,4 fib, rotation up. So why did any SL hit? What is your main swing (reference swing) ? where...
Thanks for taking time to analyse the trades I made today. I am very new to Harmonic trading and still learning. I find your comments very helpful. After the event on many of the trades today I realise where I made mistakes. Of course this is too late for today's result but hopefully I will reduce the times I make similar mistakes in the future.

I agree that I need to take far more care with placement of the trades and look far more at identifying the swing I am trading to ensure I know what I am trading for the AB=CD patterns. I need to consider far more carefully what the potential SL would need to be if I place a trade. Some of my trades were not the correct direction. I was looking too much at the larger swings and ignoring the more immediate order flow. For instance I was looking for BUYs from 1pm GMT until around 3.30pm GMT yet still made a SELL trade (trade 4). Whilst in trades I fail to follow my rules and sometimes I have exited trades far too early or regretted making the trade and looked for a break even exit.

I'm sure that over time I can improve my understanding of when entries are invalid or when a SL is too big and thus I need to pass on far more potential trades and make sure I do not simply cancel a trade when it starts poorly but simply await the outcome. If the SL is in the right place and it has correct R:R if the trade is correct (i.e. trading the correct direction) and hits the SL I know this would be a 30% likelihood trade so I don't need to beat myself up about the trade (e.g. trade 5) which although resulted in a loss was an expectation failure from NSH to NSL.

In summary today was an embarrassment for me in terms of following rules. When I place 10 trades I am making mistakes on probably 6 of them at the moment which is completely unacceptable and a downhill slope to wiping out the entire trading bank.

Summary:
a. Many of my trades had the SL in the wrong place as I was trading the larger swings.
b. A number of trades were just plain the wrong direction (i.e. placing a SELL on trade 4) when no expectation failures had occurred.
c. Late entries (trade 7). Just should not have placed this. SL would have had to be really high.
d. Cutting trades too early if I think I have made mistakes or when the market moves against me initially. More care in placing the trades are required.
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} Lawnman that looks fine to me, you know which order flow you're trading and keeping your expectations in line. My only comment would be when you're trading that immediate order flow, sometimes a 233T rotation can be too costly. I try to keep my tick chart correlated to the size of the swing I'm expecting and that's ever changing. I want to see proportionate rotation candles to make my decisions.
Thank you! So trades look decent, just got the shitty end of the stick today? I may give the 144T a try tomorrow, there was one trade today that I would have gotten in a lot earlier and at least lost less.
" reality is what it is, not what you would like it to be."
Quoting PeteH
{quote} Thanks for taking time to analyse the trades I made today. I am very new to Harmonic trading and still learning. I find your comments very helpful. After the event on many of the trades today I realise where I made mistakes. Of course this is too late for today's result but hopefully I will reduce the times I make similar mistakes in the future. I agree that I need to take far more care with placement of the trades and look far more at identifying the swing I am trading to ensure I know what I am trading for the AB=CD patterns. I need to...
You could use a line color for highlighting your trading main swing and another color for drawing 1:1 correction swings within your main swing . This helps to not loose focus. Once your main swing gets broken, you erase that and draw your new reference swing.


Losses are part of the business and learning process. If you are new to harmonics, you could also practice first on demo.
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} You could use a line color for highlighting your trading main swing and another color for drawing 1:1 correction swings within your main swing . This helps to not loose focus. Once your main swing gets broken, you erase that and draw your new reference swing. Losses are part of the business and learning process. If you are new to harmonics, you could also practice first on demo.
Good tip. I will look at recolouring the main and drawing the 1:1 correction swing targets to ensure I do not trade the wrong direction again. It's been a tough week for me with the live trades.

I practised for about a month with success before switching to live trading. I also used the Playback facility to check how my trades would have worked out . When I have traded live this week it has been like trying to ride a bike for the first time with the stabilisers removed. I have realised that I need to practice for longer and learn to take the emotion out of trading before switching back to live trading. As you say losses are part of the business and learning process. Hopefully I will get there. Next week it'll be demo trading again but once I am confident enough I'll take the stabilisers off the bike and trade Live again.

I have also created a checklist to go alongside my trade plan for myself which should help a newbie like me. It is as follows:

1. Work out Stop Loss - If more than 40 pips = No trade
2. Work out Risk:Reward (R:R) - If less than 1.4 = No trade*
3. Decent Rotation Candle? No = No trade
4. Is correction at least 50%? No = No trade

*Ninjatrader has a great tool for this which can be adjusted (Ctrl F4)

Good luck with your trades today if you do any.
Quoting PeteH
{quote} Thanks for taking time to analyse the trades I made today. I am very new to Harmonic trading and still learning. I find your comments very helpful. After the event on many of the trades today I realise where I made mistakes. Of course this is too late for today's result but hopefully I will reduce the times I make similar mistakes in the future. I agree that I need to take far more care with placement of the trades and look far more at identifying the swing I am trading to ensure I know what I am trading for the AB=CD patterns. I need to...
First of I agree with evocpr19 regarding the technical aspect but I would also like to add that it looks like (which I think you hint between the lines) your trading became emotional. As you said you didn't follow your plan and failed to see what was in front of you and ended up trying to "force" price in your direction. My tip won't be technical but when you face a loser or your analysis is all over the place. Take a few minutes away from the monitor, reset your mental state and your chart, then go back and start all over. I think with the recent volatility it's hard to keep up when the market moves so fast making it hard to keep the emotional aspect under control.
Anyway, thanks for sharing even when the going gets tough.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
Long Term on Critical Area
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