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  • #12,821
  • Feb 13, 2018 8:56am Feb 13, 2018 8:56am
Resistance broke. Looking @ 1.23600 now and going up.
  • #12,822
  • Feb 13, 2018 8:57am Feb 13, 2018 8:57am
Quoting mades
Why do we have so many bear calls here when we are above 200ema on every timeframe and above daily/weekly/monhtly pivot?
... and the 200 EMA on H1 broke today for the frist time ( up ).
  • #12,823
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:00am Feb 13, 2018 9:00am
Quoting mbrown
True...but returns is the final arbiter!!!
Yeah.. I got shaken out of my long.. :-( at least some profits.. :-)
Been trading forex for a long time and if I consequently follow the trend I must trade really really stupid to have losses... It just make everything much and much easier. I used to reverse and reverse. I only look for shorts on the 5min AFTER the hourly says down.. Now it says up.

Is price at resistance: Sure... will it bounce of: probably... (just not today I think...we're up..)
But nobody knows.

Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #12,824
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:01am Feb 13, 2018 9:01am
Quoting mades
Why do we have so many bear calls here when we are above 200ema on every timeframe and above daily/weekly/monhtly pivot?
I use them as contra-indicator. Just kidding ;-) People just don't trade "in the moment"... people say I think it will go up 20 pips and then down 30... but nobody knows. One can only see change as it happens but nobody knows how far it goes... when it will turn... Prediction but we should anticipate, not predict.
Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #12,825
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:08am Feb 13, 2018 9:08am
EVENING UPDATE
WE HAVE REACHED R2 FROM MORNING - will see what is next....we are in LONG mode
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 52 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #12,826
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:09am Feb 13, 2018 9:09am
Quoting traderview
{quote} the previous 4hr candle is almost a doji. The price 1.235 is acting at the moment a strong resistance. To broke this, it requires a very strong move to move near 1.2360 -1.2380. In my view market already ranged before the us cpi numbers tomorrow i.e 1.2335 - 1.2370. You could short it in this area. You'll get atleast 20 pips. There's a short running at 1.2335 and i might have to close it with 25 pips loss but i'll look for short above 1.2370. Because i think, it'll make a daily high between 1.2370 - 1.2380 the right place for the long would...
my prediction was almost right
  • #12,827
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:09am Feb 13, 2018 9:09am
Quoting ivob
{quote} Yeah.. I got shaken out of my long.. :-( at least some profits.. :-) Been trading forex for a long time and if I consequently follow the trend I must trade really really stupid to have losses... It just make everything much and much easier. I used to reverse and reverse. I only look for shorts on the 5min AFTER the hourly says down.. Now it says up. Is price at resistance: Sure... will it bounce of: probably... (just not today I think...we're up..) But nobody knows. Ivo
I got you and the sarcasm...lol...losses do not equate to stupidity especially when using a trend following system. Lots of small losses and large trend gains is part of the equation of the system. However, my system does trade trends exclusively. Profits aren't mutually exclusive between systems that have an edge and there are times when a trend following system will gain and other systems lose and vice versa. Yes, we are above the 200ma and various pivots but I'm sure if I went and reviewed historically time this approach fails quite a lot, even if it does generate a profit in the long-run. In fact let me quicking do a little compiling to demonstrate my point.
  • #12,828
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:14am Feb 13, 2018 9:14am
Way overdone at this point. SHORT is here now. Trend should be down.

Not expecting much higher than 1.2430.
  • #12,829
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:15am Feb 13, 2018 9:15am
Quoting ivob
{quote} I use them as contra-indicator. Just kidding ;-) People just don't trade "in the moment"... people say I think it will go up 20 pips and then down 30... but nobody knows. One can only see change as it happens but nobody knows how far it goes... when it will turn... Prediction but we should anticipate, not predict. Ivo
me..
  • #12,830
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:15am Feb 13, 2018 9:15am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I got you and the sarcasm...lol...losses do not equate to stupidity especially when using a trend following system. Lots of small losses and large trend gains is part of the equation of the system. However, my system does trade trends exclusively. Profits aren't mutually exclusive between systems that have an edge and there are times when a trend following system will gain and other systems lose and vice versa. Yes, we are above the 200ma and various pivots but I'm sure if I went and reviewed historically time this approach fails quite a...
No sarcasm... I said "I", I did not say "you"... and I still do trade stupid... and I don't care about comparing results or d*cksize or anything else...

good trading!
Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #12,831
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:27am Feb 13, 2018 9:27am
Quoting ivob
{quote} I use them as contra-indicator. Just kidding ;-) People just don't trade "in the moment"... people say I think it will go up 20 pips and then down 30... but nobody knows. One can only see change as it happens but nobody knows how far it goes... when it will turn... Prediction but we should anticipate, not predict. Ivo
People even here still trade what they feel/think will happen instead of what they see on charts.
  • #12,832
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:36am Feb 13, 2018 9:36am
Here is a little tip that has really helped me in my trading. Go back to the charts and check it out: generally speaking on the EURUSD, Market Makers will give a fake out between 1:30 AM and 3 AM EST and then take it the other way till around 10:30 AM or so EST when it will reverse till it trails off at US close. This is not always the case, but generally speaking. There is rarely a reverse in trend between 3 AM and 10:30 AM EST. This has kept me from many fake outs...
  • #12,833
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:36am Feb 13, 2018 9:36am
The price is random, thatīs true. But there are quite some self-fulfilling predictions that work, including the trend, R/S lines, MAīs, etc. They work because of a lot of traders use them for their trading. So a completely "clean chart" is not always the best thing for trading.

Just my 2 Cents.
  • #12,834
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:42am Feb 13, 2018 9:42am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} That's why. You may be doing okay today (the day isn't over yet) but the chart of your system since 2000 tells it isn't a viable system: Spread 5 pips initial account 10000 leverage 100 to 1 stop loss 200 profit target 200 if it is a simple stop and reverse that method is even more dire. I'm not into anecdotal assertions from experience, I prefer empirical analysis. {image}
You can't call that a system or backtest. Seriously. Not to mention the "200 pip SL/TP SaR MM technique" (worst of all and how did you come to value 200 when ADR(x) is much lower). I also mentioned 200EMA and I haven't said it is a system, I was just wondering why people are calling contra-trades when everything points up and those are rather common and widely used indicators (200ema and pivots).

To be honest I'm surprised equity didn't go to 0 in your backtest and consider it a good result.
  • #12,835
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:45am Feb 13, 2018 9:45am
Quoting verified
The price is random, thatīs true. But there are quite some self-fulfilling predictions that work, including the trend, R/S lines, MAīs, etc. They work because of a lot of traders use them for their trading. So a completely "clean chart" is not always the best thing for trading. Just my 2 Cents.

Inserted Video
  • #12,836
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:45am Feb 13, 2018 9:45am
Glad I played on the long side of Euro today.
  • #12,837
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:46am Feb 13, 2018 9:46am
I`m hoping that from tomorrow this pair will be bearish for the rest of the week. The reversal might occur during the London session or at the opening of the U.S session along with the U.S Data release. This will be a good place for a swing trade, but only if the set up is pristine and matches YOUR trading plan.
  • #12,838
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:48am Feb 13, 2018 9:48am
I think it trying to make the daily high
  • #12,839
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:48am Feb 13, 2018 9:48am
Had a good prediction for this, now that we're up here, would like to see some pull back to I can get back in long again prob around 1.234 ish.

The rest of the week is full of usd news so should be fun, tomorrow will probably set the tone for the rest of the week, well see

Keep it green
  • #12,840
  • Feb 13, 2018 9:51am Feb 13, 2018 9:51am
Quoting mbrown
Naturally there are alternative EURUSD systems that will sometimes trade counter to the horrible system above such as the one attached, which is currently short...I mean, would you really not take every single trade from a system such as the one attached. Returns is the final arbiter!!! {image}
Nice graph but i donīt believe anymore that eaīs work profitable. You simply cannot code what your eyes see and your experience tells you. Exiting a trade is a virtue.
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