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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,541
  • Nov 21, 2017 8:00am Nov 21, 2017 8:00am
Quoting ixam23
looks like it failed to make value above todays value area high, retest of a break lower again possible imo
looks good now, lets see if we can make it
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  • #5,542
  • Edited 6:50pm Nov 21, 2017 6:37pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting maurofx
Great Thread, thanks for sharing your insights. Choppy PA all across the board, extra patience is required this days. I see GU setting the stage for a huge fall. Price action is compressing into suppply zone @ 3280-3320. It means price is rising while spaking down, thus consuming demand at every level clearing the way for a fall. I think the move needs some fundamental excuse to shake the market, tomorrow we have news on USD. I do not see new money in this sideways action. Let's see how it plays out. Sideways atm. {image}

First of all, thank you for your appreciation.

Surely the structure left downside is more than ugly: we got something like 10 poor lows down to 2980 zone (made by different sessions: GB, Tokyo and Pit, meaning different participants but all of the same kind, weak hands). Furthermore even though we are in one time framing higher action for the last 6 pit sessions (meaning that no session took out the low of the previous one for the last 6 days) at the same time we saw session profiles with an exceptionally small range and very prominent pocs, never retested. We can also add that in the last pit profiles the difference in pips from open price to close price is particularly minuscule (7, 2, 12, 8, 13). And this means that the progression upside has been extremely difficult.

An other very interesting info comes from the fact that last month, as written many times, has been an inside one and current one is inside it. So we are in a monthly balance that could lead to a substantial break (above or below its extremes 3027-3402)

As a conclusion I think that we have conflicting information here, as we have a short term trend upside during a mid term balance characterized by a substantial lack of participation and interest of bigger participants. So I do not want to underestimate the power of a one time framing action upside while at the same time I cannot remove from the equation the extraordinary weakness of this progression upside. The best solution will be a continuation upside up to monthly balance higher extreme, followed by a failure above it and then by a strong liquidation capable to remove all the weaknesses downside. But in my personal experience I've also seen short term trend upside or downside, as weak as current one, morphing into something more just after a successful test above or below a mid term level (like, for instance, a monthly balance extreme)

Regarding your analysis I agree with the fact that we have no new money at all involved in this market and I also add that I didn't see it not only in the last days but also in the last weeks and months. Furthermore I also agree with the fact that this continue progression upside in such weak condition could lead to a substantial liquidation but if it will happen before to reach the monthly balance top it will be only a liquidation (meaning old business and not new money selling). Obviously this does not mean it cannot be huge in dimension but it means that it will be leaded by weak hands liquidating their long positions eventually helped by some hedge fund selling in to it to profit from stops. In my opinion new money (meaning mid term operators, if any) could only enter the market somewhere at the top of the monthly balance or at the bottom of it (both mid term levels). In this case we could see more serious participants involved.

Best, L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,543
  • Nov 21, 2017 7:00pm Nov 21, 2017 7:00pm
PS: on a lower scale I think that in any case nor 32233 (back to back pit poor lows) nor 32674 (cluster of highs of 3 of the last 4 different sessions) have any chance to survive. They are both too weak to remain in place on a long run. And maybe a news shake out could solve them at once.
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  • #5,544
  • Nov 22, 2017 4:08am Nov 22, 2017 4:08am
I copy paste here the mid term considerations and levels of my weekly report from 17/11/15 as those info are still valid today.

**********************************************************
For weeks we only have seen weak hands traders involved in any session any day: no sign at all of bigger participants.
We are in a monthly balance and as written numerous times before only testing one or both of last inside moth extremes we could see something significant, eventually leading bigger timeframes to step in the market in a responsive or active way.

GB inside month extremes: 30512-33652. Regarding this note that GB inside month low has been already tested once while the absolute low (3027) has been not.(absolute inside month extremes: 3027-3402)

Also note that Pit inside month (untested at both extremes) is 30273-3327

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-11-15_14-18-43_INSIDE MONTH.png Size: 59 KB


**********************************************************
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,545
  • Nov 22, 2017 5:00am Nov 22, 2017 5:00am
Another Test going on. Lets see how it works this time. I am confused not opening any position until confirmation.
  • #5,546
  • Nov 22, 2017 5:58am Nov 22, 2017 5:58am
Quoting Lock
PS: on a lower scale I think that in any case nor 32233 (back to back pit poor lows) nor 32674 (cluster of highs of 3 of the last 4 different sessions) have any chance to survive. They are both too weak to remain in place on a long run. And maybe a news shake out could solve them at once.
Both taken out. Note anyhow that 32233 is a pit level and for now we only saw GB and preUS acting below it. Will it be enough? And btw the same thing could be said regarding 32674 where a pit poor high should be removed by pit action too to be really effective.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,547
  • Nov 22, 2017 6:42am Nov 22, 2017 6:42am
3281 pit October close level tagged.
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  • #5,548
  • Nov 22, 2017 6:45am Nov 22, 2017 6:45am
For any continuation upside we need to stay above 32674 and above October close 3281

Also it could be better to preserve the new pit gap upside from yesterday pit high 32615.

If not watch out for the liquidation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,549
  • Nov 22, 2017 6:54am Nov 22, 2017 6:54am
In case of continuation upside clearly the main level will be the pit monthly balance high 3327. There and only there we could find serious buyers or sellers. So, in the case watch out!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,550
  • Nov 22, 2017 6:55am Nov 22, 2017 6:55am
Tks for your answer L!!! Following PA atm! Price just entered my trigger zone. Watching closely. GBP still seems to have upside to go through un other pairs.
  • #5,551
  • Nov 22, 2017 7:02am Nov 22, 2017 7:02am
Quoting maurofx
Tks for your answer L!!! Following PA atm! Price just entered my trigger zone. Watching closely. GBP still seems to have upside to go through un other pairs.

The main thing here to monitor is USD index as it is breaking downside from inside session (balance) and also gapping lower. If the gap preserved we could continue lower. If not I imagine a correction to 93.99 composite poc. In which case we could trigger also GB for a liquidation. But let's see if pit will establish acceptation above 3281 in cable. Or not.
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  • #5,552
  • Nov 22, 2017 7:02am Nov 22, 2017 7:02am
An other pit poor high right now. Still weak hands involved so far.
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  • #5,553
  • Nov 22, 2017 7:26am Nov 22, 2017 7:26am
Quoting Lock
For any continuation upside we need to stay above 32674 and above October close 3281 Also it could be better to preserve the new pit gap upside from yesterday pit high 32615. If not watch out for the liquidation.
New pit gap upside filled at the pip: probably a game as I do not trust current poor high
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,554
  • Nov 22, 2017 7:38am Nov 22, 2017 7:38am
Quoting Lock
{quote} New pit gap upside filled at the pip: probably a game as I do not trust current poor high
And in fact it has been taken out. Now again let's see if we could get acceptation above October pit close 3281 or not.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,555
  • Nov 22, 2017 7:44am Nov 22, 2017 7:44am
Quoting Lock
{quote} And in fact it has been taken out. Now again let's see if we could get acceptation above October pit close 3281 or not.
Great Boss. You are great observer.
  • #5,556
  • Nov 22, 2017 8:04am Nov 22, 2017 8:04am
Quoting Lock
In case of continuation upside clearly the main level will be the pit monthly balance high 3327. There and only there we could find serious buyers or sellers. So, in the case watch out!
Let's see if it could reach it before FOMC. Still monitor for acceptation above pit October close as we didn't get it yet. But we also have an other poor high.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,557
  • Nov 22, 2017 11:35am Nov 22, 2017 11:35am
Quoting Lock
In case of continuation upside clearly the main level will be the pit monthly balance high 3327. There and only there we could find serious buyers or sellers. So, in the case watch out!
And here we are just some pips below pit inside month high 3327. Watch out as if something more serious has to happen is here.
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  • #5,558
  • Nov 22, 2017 11:44am Nov 22, 2017 11:44am
Also note that 33393 last move downside half back is right above our main level 33264, inside a previous 2 pass pit gap (up to 33435) So price could also climb over there to test it again eventually filling the double pass pit gap too.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,559
  • Nov 22, 2017 11:48am Nov 22, 2017 11:48am
But remember that in this zone mid term operators could be waiting for price action. And we do not know if they will be buyers or sellers. If any of them.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,560
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:44pm Nov 22, 2017 3:44pm
Almost 8 hours ago I made this note:

Quoting Lock
In case of continuation upside clearly the main level will be the pit monthly balance high 3327. There and only there we could find serious buyers or sellers. So, in the case watch out!
Note that pit session concluded its action just 2 single pips above this mid term level.

Now this is important for 2 different reasons: the first one regards the power of market generated information and how vital it is to observe a market and try to evaluate all its variables.
The second one is that, again, we didn't see new serious money stepping in at a very important mid term level. Nor buyers nor sellers.

This does not mean that we cannot have a huge liquidation from here or that we cannot see price continue higher tomorrow or tonight. But it means that at this particular level we didn't find any interest nor in to buy nor in to sell by stronger participants. Because if instead it was the case, price should not have stopped just 2 single pips above it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
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