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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,581
  • Sep 14, 2017 3:09am Sep 14, 2017 3:09am
USDX UPDATE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-14_10-07-11_FIRST CLUSTER SOLVED.png Size: 41 KB
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,582
  • Sep 14, 2017 3:14am Sep 14, 2017 3:14am
If so, meaning if USDX will go upside to fill that anomaly, this could influence cable in the opposite direction eventually leading price in a continuation of the yesterday liquidation. And, btw, for now the new gap downside in cable has been preserved.

Remember that even if the yesterday high is clearly poor and weak, a new gap could work as a substitute for the lack of excess upside. Because a gap is for its own a form of excess. Then on the bigger timeframe we could expect in any case a correction of that high but maybe later in the next days. Or maybe after the correction of the USDX cluster upside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,583
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:11am Sep 14, 2017 6:11am
Quoting Lock
So we could have some different scenarios here. We could wait for news here around the major composite poc at 3206, rotating above and below it and preserving the current new gap downside.
Quoting Lock
It is possible to preserve the new gap downside and continue in the liquidation downside. For instance taking out the bad cluster of lows at 31595.
Quoting Lock
At the opposite it is possible to see a full correction of the yesterday liquidation, including obviously the filling of the new gap up to 3252. And then continuing up to yesterday GB poor high at 3329 establishing a new better extreme upside.
Quoting Lock
In any case remember that yesterday we got a liquidation, and not new money selling. Yesterday structure is very poor. We are going to have volatility after and during news. USDX could heavily influence cable and its condition (of USDX) is complex as price is in between two big clusters of anomalies left during the last weeks.

So it did everything. It almost completed all the possible solutions in one shake out. It waited for news up and down the composite poc at 3206. Then moved downside to take out the cluster of lows at 31595, temporary preserving the new gap downside. And eventually spiked upside towards the yesterday GB poor high at 3229 filling completely the new gap downside made this morning at open.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,584
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:22am Sep 14, 2017 6:22am
This is what I wrote yesterday...

Quoting Lock
GB poor low at 31923 still in place (from Tuesday GB session). Note the major composite poc just some pips below it. It could attract price. Never forget that all the action from this morning GB session is a liquidation. So watch out because it is not new money selling but old business. (liquidation of inventories too long)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,585
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:23am Sep 14, 2017 6:23am
And again...

Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out. And here we are at the composite poc 3191: volume required to evade it. We also have a cluster of lows at 3159 level. But a correction is absolutely possible before to get it. And remember that this is a liquidation as said multiple times.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,586
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:24am Sep 14, 2017 6:24am
And again...

Quoting Lock
Composite poc, prominent, at 3206. Cluster of lows (included a poor pit low at 31595. Yesterday GB close at 32175. Brexit low at 32273. Big new GB gap downside from yesterday GB low at 3252. GB highest close for 2017 at 32786. Very poor structure left by yesterday liquidation downside. And current September high is both poor and weak at 3329. USDX could heavily influence cable today.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,587
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:25am Sep 14, 2017 6:25am
And finally...

Quoting Lock
.... In any case remember that yesterday we got a liquidation, and not new money selling. Yesterday structure is very poor. We are going to have volatility after and during news. USDX could heavily influence cable and its condition (of USDX) is complex as price is in between two big clusters of anomalies left during the last weeks.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,588
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:32am Sep 14, 2017 6:32am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} So it did everything. It almost completed all the possible solutions in one shake out. It waited for news up and down the composite poc at 3206. Then moved downside to take out the cluster of lows at 31595, temporary preserving the new gap downside. And eventually spiked upside towards the yesterday GB poor high at 3229 filling completely the new gap downside made this morning at open.
3229 yesterday poor and weak GB high taken out..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,589
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:36am Sep 14, 2017 6:36am
Now we still have old poor highs to correct upside up to 3360. But we also have an extraordinary elongated I period and more big news to come.

Also we have GB anomalies upside in USDX not solved yet. So be very careful because volatility could produce unexpected results here.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,590
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:02am Sep 14, 2017 7:02am
Old Sydney and Tokyo poor highs from 09.206 taken out. Watch out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,591
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:18am Sep 14, 2017 7:18am
A fast recap from a top-down perspective.

We are in a one timeframing action upside in the last 4 weeks, meaning that we are in a mid term trend upside. All this action occurred after the failed test below 27948 that is the upper monthly bracket low. Then price continued higher and also tested from above the half back of this bracket at 31637 (this week). Yesterday we got a big liquidation of inventories who removed from the market a lot of weak buyers and readjust inventories become to long during previous days.

Now, when price fails below a balance (and a monthly bracket is a balance) the natural direction is towards the opposite side of that balance. In this case the opposite side of the balance/bracket is at 35326.

So, unless some extraordinary exogenous event this is the current direction on the major scale.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-14_14-19-07_Major scale.png Size: 91 KB


On a smaller one, we saw this morning a huge correction of yesterday liquidation and consequently inventories could have become again too long. If it is the case we could see some correction downside before to continue seriously upside. If no correction, remember in any case that today I period during GB rally is very elongated. So in case of no liquidation before a new rally carry this information forward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,592
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:27am Sep 14, 2017 7:27am
On the minor scale monitor for the new possible Pit gap from yesterday Pit session high at 32615

Any meaningful continuation upside will probably preserve it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,593
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:38am Sep 14, 2017 7:38am
Quoting Lock
Now we still have old poor highs to correct upside up to 3360. But we also have an extraordinary elongated I period and more big news to come. Also we have GB anomalies upside in USDX not solved yet. So be very careful because volatility could produce unexpected results here.
So it liquidated some and then here we are 4 pips below 3360. Now let's see. It could balance here for a while supported by the new possible pit gap upside. Then decide after that.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,594
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:42am Sep 14, 2017 7:42am
Watch out USDX started its rally towards anomalies upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-14_14-41-07_USDX RALLY.png Size: 26 KB
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,595
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:43am Sep 14, 2017 7:43am
I'm out for a while see you later. best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,596
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:51am Sep 14, 2017 7:51am
Oy!... So much to process... Thanks again.
TULKAS
  • #4,597
  • Sep 14, 2017 8:00am Sep 14, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Lock
Watch out USDX started its rally towards anomalies upside. {image}
Only volatility and back downside again.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,598
  • Sep 14, 2017 8:00am Sep 14, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So it liquidated some and then here we are 4 pips below 3360. Now let's see. It could balance here for a while supported by the new possible pit gap upside. Then decide after that.

Taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,599
  • Sep 14, 2017 8:04am Sep 14, 2017 8:04am
August 2016 high tagged and poor high (33714).
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #4,600
  • Sep 14, 2017 8:06am Sep 14, 2017 8:06am
Quoting Lock
August 2016 high tagged and poor high (33714).
Is this rise is to fall down below 1.30? What you say?
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