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- buaksam replied Mar 30, 2016
It could, but over the past eight years it has not been much of a market mover. At current prices the expected move is about 20 pips (0.18%).
- buaksam replied Mar 8, 2016
Any ideas what happened to bunds at the open? The dax is tanking, Mario is going to extend his shopping powers, crap China data overnight and the bunds tank??? I bought 162.70 on a knee-jerk reaction and it is at BE now...but I am puzzled. Thanks.
- buaksam replied Mar 4, 2016
Nice example of a failed down move from 1.4041 to 1.3834 wanting to visit its norm before making it to the opposite target 1.4249. Will help EG longs.
- buaksam replied Mar 4, 2016
The average move for the first candle after NFP in EURUSD is 0.55% of the price or about 60 pips. This could put us to 1.1040ish or 1.0920ish (at current prices). For USDJPY it is about 0.7% or about 80 pips, so 114.4 or 112.8 are both within reach. ...
- buaksam replied Feb 10, 2016
Hi Davit, No need to be perplexed if you are a fundamental trader. One of the leading textbooks on international trade (K-O) offers this explanation in the appendix of chapter 15: The standard monetary theory says following a rate rise (in this case ...
- buaksam replied Jan 7, 2016
Are you watching euraud for a short??? My cheap seats are at 1.5578. Risking 10 pips plus spread.
- buaksam replied Jan 6, 2016
Take the last high on H4 (1.1058ish), subtract the last low 1.0801, that gives you 257. Then either subtract that 257 from the low, or subtract 2*257 from the high. HTH
- buaksam replied Dec 16, 2015
Quoting goldfinch I have been saying all year that the FED won't raise until Q2 2016 at the earliest, not going to change my mind today. For the avoidance of doubt. Quoting goldfinch They may do something stupid, just because they get political ...
- buaksam replied Dec 16, 2015
Funny you should mention gold...we may get a few bucks closer to your target. 950ish, isn't it?
- buaksam replied Dec 16, 2015
That's a fun post! 1. FED, light trading volumes in holiday markets. 2. 25bp hike 3. Longer term it should lose its value against the USD because of the rate differentials. Short-term and in particular in terms of knee-jerk reaction nobody knows. ...
- buaksam replied Dec 11, 2015
Very impressive results for a day. It's a pity that the numbers don't add up . My quick sum is 266.1 which is approximately 70% of what you reporting with 379.3. Do I take it as your photoshop skills are only 70% of what you are pretending or your ...
- buaksam replied Dec 10, 2015
9.30 GMT: Maybe M. Weale joins I. McCafferty for a hike in the BoE votes? It would do a lot of good for EURGBP shorts.
- buaksam replied Dec 3, 2015
I think Draghi is going to go down in history as one of the greatest central bankers ever. Forget The Maestro. He "only" guessed correctly that productivity growth was at work in the 90s. But look at what Draghi achieved. This is what he said 3 ...
- buaksam replied Dec 1, 2015
Carney speaks in three minutes, then there is the Manufacturing PMI in half an hour. I'll try selling at 25ish. Good luck.
- buaksam replied Dec 1, 2015
My guess for GU top for today is 1.5129. Also, GU likes topping on the 15M at 29, 38, 50, 61, and 82 or on the 1H at 38, 49, 50, 75, and 81. Not that a 15pip DD matters to someone who has already paid the limit , but I thought I share it. And of ...
- buaksam replied Nov 27, 2015
The mid-seventies is an 'unlikely bottom' both on the 15M and the 1H. Your 0562 is still there...personally, if we are going to have a bottom here (15M or 1H) I think it is going to be 64-65. Not a trade recommendation. The next more likely bottom ...
- buaksam replied Nov 24, 2015
Dunno. Maybe someone finds the real consumer spending data published by the department of commerce at the same time a touch too soft (3.0% vs 3.2 previously and expected). Or corporate profits.
- buaksam replied Nov 24, 2015
Consider it as an input to the trading decision: if you think that as a result of the announcement the EURUSD is going up temporarily you could sell current price + 0.25% (anywhere up to about current +1.0 if there is a huge surprise). Above 1.0% ...
- buaksam replied Nov 24, 2015
Here is some quantitative data about the upcoming show: in EURUSD (eurusd_vol.pdf) we get a 0.24% 15M candle (or 25ish pips at todays rate) on average. The largest seen is above 1% in 2008 (135ish pips). USDJPY (usdjpy_vol,pdf) is more fun, we get a ...
- buaksam replied Nov 19, 2015
Sometimes your predicted touch really turns out to be a touch...sometimes it is a real visit, going below and getting back to the number. Do you have any indication which one is going to be in advance? I'm not asking to tell me the details, though ...