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- Jimbaloo replied Aug 17, 2014
Output in Switzerland is growing close to trend (unlike every country in Euroland) and there's very little labor slack. This is reflected in SNB's measure of core inflation. The persistent decline in EZ yields across the curve increases the ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 29, 2014
Euro’s resilience is caused by rising short-end real yields and net FDI and portfolio investment inflows. To fight these currents the ECB would have to engage in massive unsterilized foreign bond buying. Also important. The ECB has no maximum ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 27, 2014
Thank you for that in-depth global macroeconomic analysis. So following this blatant gold manipulation that will cause gold to reach $1000, you're saying it should be bought and held thru GFC II? May I remind you, risky assets, like gold, are ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 16, 2014
There's not that many variables. If you can figure out where the US 10y gov't yield is headed you'll do better than most. image
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 14, 2014
I very much doubt the jawboning by ECB and government officials will have a lasting impact. I believe the upward trend in EUR/USD is caused by a relative improvement in short-end real yields in EZ in addition to net FDI and portfolio investment ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 3, 2014
USDX image The inverse H&S neckline in the dollar index (major's) has been breached while EUR/USD is still resting on support. I expect a continuation, assuming NFP figures (incl. revisions) are not too far below consensus (a big if..).
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 1, 2014
Hi folks! Here's some big picture contributions. EURUSD and real rates image Would be much easier (and probably more accurate) with direct access thru a Bloomberg or Eikon terminal. Real effective exchange rates image image JPY strengthened ...
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 21, 2014
A double bottom could be forming and I might be too greedy with the entry price. Monthly chart: image AUDNZD is the most important exchange rate for the New Zealand economy. It looks like a no-brainer, which makes me wary. wrt. AUDCAD, in the most ...
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 20, 2014
AUD is showing strength despite emerging risks from China. The cash rate is at a historically low level which of course lower's the whole yield curve. Seven months have passed since the last cut and the 'desired' effect has started to show up in ...
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 19, 2014
EUR/USD has become a bit pricey. I suspect the main reasons for euro’s resilience are: 1) real yields have declined considerably less than nominal ones 2) Fed is still intervening on a massive scale and artificially lowering term premiums 3) growth ...
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 17, 2014
YTD performance vs. USD: has the time come to short NZD/CAD? image In close tango: with USD/JPY you're indirectly trading the US 10y note. image
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 16, 2014
Muppets. When completely ignorant to the underlying macro you can’t afford to have strong opinions. The SNB is not going to raise the floor or impose negative rates. Officials are just jawboning. Keep in mind that a central bank is supposed to be ...
- Jimbaloo replied Mar 15, 2014
Shorting China thru the Taiwanese dollar might be easier than with copper, AUD, steel or mining companies etc. Using 2013 data, about 27% of Taiwan's exports leaves for China. image USD/TWD weekly Following the recent rally it became very ...
- Jimbaloo replied Feb 27, 2014
Im closer to the bear camp wrt. Sterling. The market is getting ahead of itself with discounting MP tightening. Carney was spot on when mentioning that a sustainable rebound in growth is dependent on increased business investment. The eurozone is ...
- Jimbaloo replied Feb 16, 2014
DXY has room to fall by an additional 0.4pp before it hits support and becomes oversold, in a strict sense. image GDP growth and PMI figures in the eurozone have recently surprised on the upside. The ECB has also signaled that MP is likely to stay ...
- Jimbaloo replied Jan 27, 2014
Here's a few charts that may provide some insights. Gold is close to where it should be while USD/JPY and USD/CAD looks a bit rich.
- Jimbaloo replied Jan 4, 2014
Without the low liquidity spikes in EUR/USD and GBP/USD during Xmas I suspect the charts would look somewhat less bearish.
- Jimbaloo replied Oct 28, 2013
Is it really different this time wrt. the yen? image The red line is USD/JPY RPPP-adjusted to 2000. image image
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