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A New Divergence?
Do you ever read the last few pages of a fiction book before getting into it? It seems a bit like watching the economic data now. We know roughly where it is headed, the unknown is precisely how it gets there. A common criticism of economists is that they are too late in calling a recession. One observer suggested that banks don't want their economists forecasting a recession. That strikes me as little more than an urban myth. Non-bank economists, central banks, multilateral institutions, like the IMF and World Bank, also often do not see an economic downturn until it is biting them or their neighbors. At the end of ... (full story)
