Global recession

Sorry, if you think this a “transitory shock ” you are indeed in for a surprise There are a number of huge underlying factors at play here and Covid-19 is only one component ,
Talk about a shock!

there are no co-incidences in the market, but at the moment simultanous economic cycles are intersecting right now , alongside Covid-19, the oil shock, the repo liquidity crisis, too much inflated money chasing too few assets providing the returns that Big Money has gotten used to over the past 12 years , and there's the catch, big money and CB greed has no supply chain and demand chain backing right now, the OECD countries have stopped spending, so who needs credit? monetary turnover M3 is unwinding, its just a game of dominoes.
Demand driven productivity is the only way to trade out of a recession , look at the lessons of Germany ( twice ) and Argentina etc... there is nothing new under the sun, and certainly nothing new in market behaviour right now.

This is not the one to fear, the virus will mutate and return in 2022 when it will be a killer. Just like 1918 Spanish flu, the first round was just like a heavy flu, the next occurrence was the killer.

Gann talked about 100 year cycle, not just in stocks but in other aspects as well, this one is just 2 years late. The markets were due a correction and the virus is being used as an excuse.

Two factors will determine the position of the market, one in spite of the sell off is this the big one. The answer to this is the length of decline. If this is the collapse expect to see the first let down of about a month duration. The 17th of this month is the key date I am looking at, expect a bounce here and a 50% or 65% retrace on some good news. If we fall till the 17th March then we will decline even further following a retrace.

IOHO the financial media and indeed many on these threads have been way behind the curve in realising the scale of the CV19 threat... or the backward nature of the transmission data out of China and Korea since early February.
The US has (happily) been so far spared mass infection clusters sufficient to trigger mass economic shutdown.
But its unfortunately a high probability that these will emerge in next 7 -14 days. CV19 market threat/reaction is Bottom-Up... will develop differently to the 07/08 economic crisis... which was top down, and existential to the financial system. IOHO CV19 is a direct existential threat to operation of entire parts of industrial and service infrastructure. The depth of the impact and the speed of recovery to that shock will determine how "transient" the impact will be. Our modeling is less than sanguine about this.
Just a Thought#

Well I agree it could be a transitory Shock , but, many small added shock, ( like for instance oil price impact on US production) could bring a recession

Ok. How deep will we go? People around have started to talk about this as the end of the world which it is not. I am keeping an eye on the retailers. When they have all reversed short I am buying. That is already happening and I have a long one going in oil and dax. I indend to run those as long as the market allows it but will refrain from adding to it (:

I don't agree to this text. it's just a transitory shock, I don't think this shock has a unit root. the economies will be back to their trend and this matter won't take long. we don't call it a recession. permanent shock can bring an economy into a recession but transitory shocks can't.

why shouldn't we be optimist? take a look at Chinese. they almost could handle it within less than two months. notice the population that china has. now, you don't think the same result comes to true for the rest of involved countries such as US, European, S. Korea and ..., these countries have very less population in comparison to china. plus, they have a developed health system.
before emerging this damn virus, us and china economies were in the good position, now, china is almost going back to previous path and USA will also back after awhile. hence, we can't call it a recession and permanent shock.
being low the oil price is not too bad for global economy, china and EU members are the oil importers. it's positive for them and negative for exporters like USA , Russia and middle East. plus, the oil price will be back to channel 40$ because Russia, Saudi and USA have to reach an agreement over it.

Travel restrictions are hitting hard the airlines and touristic sector. The production and supply chain may catch up soon, but the damage caused won't be easy to wipe out quickly. It will leave severe scars and the overall economy will need months if not years to get again where it was before the crisis. I even think that we've not reached the bottom yet.

There is no way out of this. This crash was inevitable. And now we are all going to suffer because of greed.

USA and UK has very small amount of people infected by the virus , while London is the biggest traveling destination in the world . New York is 5th. Italy has been in recession for quite a while now , its currently the weakest point of the EU. Banking and Oil production has been dissolving industry for quite a while now.
Or its just a coincidence ?

Fed is in there providing liquidity. What will matter is if that intervention is not used as an escape route for those organizations in trouble.
Fed tried to stop the Hemorrhage with what it thought was significant drop in rates.
Did not make a dent even lasting one week. That is a good measure of current market stress levels.

Fed may decide it will be the Bagholder for toxic assets but do not expect that as first response.