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  • Senator says CDC about to confirm 3rd U.S. case of coronavirus

This will be the 2020 version of SARS. Market uncertainty is rising, VIX on the rise, all this means

RISK OFF
...because you never know - until you do!

put on lifeguards
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
do you know what's Zellers?

I want to go to Zellers today.

I wanna look for some thick mouth-masks

Damn, we gotta get closer to our kids and family. I'm not panicking but you never know.
Invest in alarm clocks
I do not believe that the Coronavirus is a pandemic, 800 reported cases but 26 deaths so a mortality rate of 3.25%. This seasons US influenza virus has killed 6600 and hospitalised 120000 so a mortality rate of 5.5% and that is not being classed as a global emergency. This is the media fear mongering with a potential hidden agenda. Last seasons influenza virus in the US killed 80000 and that was not a global emergency either.

This could be a dry run of Chinas' Smart city control on the masses when the GSM hits and food shortages become a reality.
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
Quoting Pleiadian
I do not believe that the Coronavirus is a pandemic, 800 reported cases but 26 deaths so a mortality rate of 3.25%. This seasons US influenza virus has killed 6600 and hospitalised 120000 so a mortality rate of 5.5% and that is not being classed as a global emergency. This is the media fear mongering with a potential hidden agenda. Last seasons influenza virus in the US killed 80000 and that was not a global emergency either. This could be a dry run of Chinas' Smart city control on the masses when the GSM hits and food shortages become a reality....

I wouldn't believe "only" 800+ people have been infected over 30 millions of people in quarantine.
Things are being hidden, else it would be a total panic
COT: The precious data ignored
1x26=26
800x26=20800
20800x26=540800
...
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I wouldn't believe "only" 800+ people have been infected over 30 millions of people in quarantine. Things are being hidden, else it would be a total panic
These supposedly quarantined cities have to get food and supplies in. I think they are testing out their logistics or whatever plan the have in place for GSM.
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
You know guys, it's sad to say but there is an ending to all things... one day. Life is shorter than what you think... that's why I ride in my Benz everyday and don't give a f*uck. In fact I didn't give a f*ck since 2005.
Invest in alarm clocks
I've no idea about this but hope to governments help people n paisions too soon
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I wouldn't believe "only" 800+ people have been infected over 30 millions of people in quarantine. Things are being hidden, else it would be a total panic
There is no need for anything to be hidden. The quarantine aims to cast a very wide net to make sure no infection carrier escapes it. Therefore it is only natural to expect the vast majority of quarantined people will not get sick. It is a precautionary measure. Cutting of a number of cities (not just Wuhan but also a few others in Hubei province) all of which have more than a million residents is casting a really fine net really wide. CCP has been really jumpy about it.

The transmission process occurs with different efficiency for different viruses. A virus that just has jumped the inter-species barrier is bound to have low efficiency as it has not had the time for the natural selection to optimize it for infecting the new host species. If that virus had a high efficiency, it would have made the jump long time ago.

More often than not humanity has been lucky in the process.

Just imagine if HIV could survive in mosquitoes.........or Ebola could............
[quote=ekan;12720036]{quote} There is no need for anything to be hidden.
Wow! So naive.
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
the US and rest of the world trade war can be miniature compared to this in a short time
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
[quote=Pleiadian;12720058]
Quoting ekan
{quote} There is no need for anything to be hidden. Wow! So naive.
Said the ignorant.
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
Quoting Tony112
do you know what's Zellers? I want to go to Zellers today. I wanna look for some thick mouth-masks Damn, we gotta get closer to our kids and family. I'm not panicking but you never know.
JP Morgan is falling
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
:oil = run, it's hot, it's burning , it's exploding, call it how you want, don't try to catch a falling knife
Invest in alarm clocks
OMG, have you every seen oil so clean!!!! wow it looks like spring water dammmmmn look at the chart, people who have bought rocket/soleimani oil bank accounts are clean, crystal clean
Invest in alarm clocks
Quoting Tony112
In fact I didn't give a f*ck since 2005.
15 years since U gave a f@@k ?

Sorry but I couldnt resist. I know what you meant and you and I are on the same page.
...because you never know - until you do!
[quote=Pleiadian;12720058]
Quoting ekan
{quote} There is no need for anything to be hidden. Wow! So naive.
It just proves that Ekan


Attached Image
...because you never know - until you do!
Things go in cycles both little and large. 2020 looks like a pivot year.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} 15 years since U gave a f@@k ? Sorry but I couldnt resist. I know what you meant and you and I are on the same page.

I lived my life like it's the last day since a looong time ago, I'm not afraid of anything now. Only thing I worry about is my kids.
Invest in alarm clocks
what an awful new year it has been by now!
whose hands are the behind it? i can believe it is accidental.
Quoting sadeghi
what an awful new year it has been by now! whose hands are the behind it? i can believe it is accidental.

This was lab created
Invest in alarm clocks
Quoting Tony112
{quote} This was lab created
the time will say everything. we can just present some assumptions. I'm sure the Chinese never say anything if it is messed up by themselves ( with or without government's notice )
I just got off the phone with Adam Schiff and some of my other Democrat colleagues, and they tell me they've found the culprit. Yep... it's Russia!
Risk off
Quoting Ratmach
I just got off the phone with Adam Schiff and some of my other Democrat colleagues, and they tell me they've found the culprit. Yep... it's Russia!
why would russia do that to china?
not only with china, with the world.
trying to understand your comment.
[quote=fxsport;12720144]
Quoting Pleiadian
{quote} It just proves that Ekan {image}
fxsport: go chill with the song "when the wild wind blows" by iron maiden. cheers.
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} why would russia do that to china? not only with china, with the world. trying to understand your comment.
Oh sorry. It's satire, a takeoff on what's going on in the U.S. the past couple years. Where Democrats and Trump haters in general try to blame EVERYTHING on Putin and Russia. They (Dems) have gone insane... a new term for their insanity is now being used, TDS, or "Trump Derangement Syndrome".
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} why would russia do that to china? not only with china, with the world. trying to understand your comment.
LOLz .... trying to understand a trumper? .... well, goodluck!!
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} why would russia do that to china? not only with china, with the world. trying to understand your comment.
yea hes being 100% serious and stating facts........
This is good news for me. It’s going to be pretty easy to make money this year I think.
Quoting Ojiego
{quote} LOLz .... trying to understand a trumper? .... well, goodluck!!
trying to understand price behavior, and the only thing I see is that trump is powerful and the most of times very intelligent
Quoting Ratmach
{quote} Oh sorry. It's satire, a takeoff on what's going on in the U.S. the past couple years. Where Democrats and Trump haters in general try to blame EVERYTHING on Putin and Russia. They (Dems) have gone insane... a new term for their insanity is now being used, TDS, or "Trump Derangement Syndrome".


difficult to understand when someone is serious or telling jokes here Lol
Quoting saruhn
{quote} yea hes being 100% serious and stating facts........
And if Trump is right?
everyone thought noah was crazy until the day the flood came.
Quoting Tony112
do you know what's Zellers? I want to go to Zellers today. I wanna look for some thick mouth-masks Damn, we gotta get closer to our kids and family. I'm not panicking but you never know.
The thing I believe we need to do now more than ever to guard ourselves against this threat is to make our immune system strong. Avoiding sweets and junk food, drinking lots of water, taking vitamin D and C, eating ginger, turmeric, and garlic, fruits and vegetables, less fats and less fried foods. Also, avoiding buffets and restaurants. Hand-washing before eating is a must . That's what I am going to do.
You don't know because you don't ask.
Quoting here2there
{quote} The thing I believe we need to do now more than ever to guard ourselves against this threat is to make our immune system strong. Avoiding sweets and junk food, drinking lots of water, taking vitamin D and C, eating ginger, turmeric, and garlic, fruits and vegetables, less fats and less fried foods. Also, avoiding buffets and restaurants. Hand-washing before eating is a must . That's what I am going to do.
That's not going to protect you from a highly potent virus.

Staying home is the only protection unless you have family members who live with you who go out a lot.
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} And if Trump is right? everyone thought noah was crazy until the day the flood came.
ahahahahahhahahahahahahahahha
Quoting raklian
{quote} That's not going to protect you from a highly potent virus. Staying home is the only protection unless you have family members who live with you who go out a lot.
Nothing is 100% But it will strengthen my immune system, and thus increase my chances of being able to fight the virus off if I am exposed to it. You would be surprised what an immune system can do when it is strong.
You don't know because you don't ask.
"And if Trump is right?"

Well, that would be a first, now wouldn't it?
Quoting gravitist
"And if Trump is right?" Well, that would be a first, now wouldn't it?
Wait... aren't you the same guy who just went on a condescending rant to Marcieny, referring to "fairy tales"? And yet here you are repeating CNN/MSNBC talking points? Alrighty then... must be nice to be so TOTALLY reality-based.
Quoting gravitist
Hidden
I love that you think Bill Nye is an actual scientist. Check for yourself...it's easy to find out.
Gravitist, I assume you're an adult, stop believing people who make up tv shows for children.
Please chaps respect the basis on which we all participate in these forums.
Please.. guy.. no religion.
We have enough problems with politics, which has at least some direct relevance to economic issues.

Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting RossEdwards
Please chaps respect the basis on which we all participate in these forums. Please.. guy.. no religion. We have enough problems with politics, which has at least some direct relevance to economic issues.
Hi Ross, per the code of conduct we're not allowed to discuss the items you've referred to during trading because it's a supposed distraction. Well, 1- it's NOT trading hours 2- you've admitted in your own posting that religion and politics, BOTH HAVE DIRECT RELEVANCE TO ECONOMIC ISSUES...these ARE trading relevant issues...especially when FF puts them out as news stories. How can you or anyone else state we cannot argue/discuss relevant issues to trading...especially on the weekends when they can in NO WAY distract from trading?
Quoting CashBox
{quote} ..... How can you or anyone else state we cannot argue/discuss relevant issues to trading...especially on the weekends when they can in NO WAY distract from trading?
Quite a sensible comment. But I'm just reflecting what I'm personally advised by monitors on the posting conventions on this site. There's nothing in rules about a difference between weekends and trading days.
Let me share the direct advice given to me on the issues you raise, by FF in relation to political comment on this site.. and I quote:

"You must use discipline and compartmentalize my friend! This story was posted because of the market reaction it created. The critical key is to take the political information and interpret it for trades PERIOD.
If you see other people talking politics, they're distracted. It's not supposed to be talked about.
You're here to trade right ... ? What are your top 3 political sites. Go!"

I dont agree.. but its FFs site.. its free and they call the shots.
My confusion was ascribed as "befuddlement"...
Seems my "befuddlement" is shared by you among the many others whove simply stopped posting here.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
The way their acting & the way its spreading something tells me your analysis on virus mutation is out
You cant trust any info from China, which is what the guy you quote said pretty much.
Look at what they're doing rather saying.


Quoting ekan
{quote} There is no need for anything to be hidden. The quarantine aims to cast a very wide net to make sure no infection carrier escapes it. Therefore it is only natural to expect the vast majority of quarantined people will not get sick. It is a precautionary measure. Cutting of a number of cities (not just Wuhan but also a few others in Hubei province) all of which have more than a million residents is casting a really fine net really wide. CCP has been really jumpy about it. The transmission process occurs with different efficiency for...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
The way their acting & the way its spreading something tells me your analysis on virus mutation is out You cant trust any info from China, which is what the guy you quote said pretty much. Look at what they're doing rather saying. {quote}
bones, when SARS hit back in 2003, I was working in Taipei in an interdisciplinary team studying the proteins involved in viral infection process for different viruses. so, i am very well familiar with what is going on now - both from scientific point of view and as an actual resident of a [place that was seriously affected in the last round.

the way CCP has responded and handled the emerging infection is a very interesting topic on its own, and it merits serious analysis from the point of the coming confrontation of the West with The Socialism with Chinese characteristics.

But what is the point of attempting any level of serious analysis in here, among the lame attempts at political sarcasm, peddling conspiracy theories and bible quotes, all under the approving gaze of our friendly neighbourhood moderator team?

have a nice day.
you all need to get a grip on reality LOL

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

the regular flu that gives you sniffles is deadlier than even sars

During the period of infection, there were 8,098 reported cases of SARS and 774 deaths. This means the virus killed about 1 in 10 people who were infected. People over the age of 65 were particularly at risk, with over half of those who died from the infection being in this age group.
buy the rumor,sell the news
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Quite a sensible comment. But I'm just reflecting what I'm personally advised by monitors on the posting conventions on this site. There's nothing in rules about a difference between weekends and trading days. Let me share the direct advice given to me on the issues you raise, by FF in relation to political comment on this site.. and I quote: "You must use discipline and compartmentalize my friend! This story was posted because of the market reaction it created. The critical key is to take the political information and interpret it...
So, even on the weekends or off hours there is not to be any discussion of how one arrives at their personal interpretation of the news which in turn affects whether they are long or short? This news is yet another incident that almost everyone in this thread either has said themselves or would agree to stipulate to the fact that information has been hidden yet again by a government and/or news entity? These discussions are very much an important factor in trading. If we cannot discuss how we arrive at trading decisions then there is no room for FF to survive as a forum. It will only become a news agency and we can all get our news elsewhere and still for free.
Quoting ekan
{quote} bones, when SARS hit back in 2003, I was working in Taipei in an interdisciplinary team studying the proteins involved in viral infection process for different viruses. so, i am very well familiar with what is going on now - both from scientific point of view and as an actual resident of a [place that was seriously affected in the last round. the way CCP has responded and handled the emerging infection is a very interesting topic on its own, and it merits serious analysis from the point of the coming confrontation of the West with The Socialism...
Ekan, what concerns me is no one has 'recovered' from this. We only know the death numbers. SARS, the flu, etc...we know people recovered, but no one has stated anyone who has this virus has recovered and been released from the hospital. If they don't start releasing recovered patients in the next week or so this will cause the markets to crash hard and fast.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} Ekan, what concerns me is no one has 'recovered' from this. We only know the death numbers. SARS, the flu, etc...we know people recovered, but no one has stated anyone who has this virus has recovered and been released from the hospital. If they don't start releasing recovered patients in the next week or so this will cause the markets to crash hard and fast.
Cashbox, it is a serious illness and takes long time to recover. It is a coronavirus pneumonia, not herpes - it either eats your lungs and you die, or your immune system goes after the virus, kills it, and you recover.

I just asked a Chinese friend of mine, he told me there have been cases reported in PRC media of multiple recoveries of confirmed cases this weeks. Probably the Western media has not considered important enough to relay (you have to understand, PRC media at the moment is frantic in their coverage, there are hundreds of reports and updates per day, the western media very unlikely can keep up with all of it).

All in all, it appears this is less lethal than SARS (the vast majority of the dead are elderly who had serious health conditions), just the media keeps reporting on it, so it starts to sound very scary. Then the accursed social media echo chamber blows it all out of proportion and the conspiracy theories peddlers come out of the woodwork - poor fellas, this only happens once in a decade or two, they must be starved.

Those who think CCP cannot be trusted to give full and truthful information are right, but in this case, it is in CCP's interest to have the infection under control as quickly as possible. You can always trust CCP to pursue THEIR interest for sure. The fact they have gone so overboard with quarantine and travel bans show they are sparing no effort and expense to ensure that happens. It is probably not because they are covering a pandemic worthy of a Hollywood movie, but because they are trying damn hard to make sure they don't have to. Going back to business as usual is very important for them.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} So, even on the weekends or off hours there is not to be any discussion of how one arrives at their personal interpretation of the news which in turn affects whether they are long or short? This news is yet another incident that almost everyone in this thread either has said themselves or would agree to stipulate to the fact that information has been hidden yet again by a government and/or news entity? These discussions are very much an important factor in trading. If we cannot discuss how we arrive at trading decisions then there is no...
@cashbox ... I dont understand why you are addressing you further comments to me.
concerns to me. Ive advised you of the personal advice Ive been given by Twee, on political discussion which I asume extends to religious comment.. and confirmed that I dont find it helpful but that Im obliged to respect it since its FFs site.
You must write directly to Twee (FF Forum Manager) if you like me continue to be "befuddled".

In the matter of religious comment in the context of market relevance.. I do feel (with respect to the poster), that post# 53 - Quote:
"has nothing to do with the economy? when the antichrist is revealed, the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse will appear, this is when Jesus will return to take his sons... when the world is destroyed, then you come here and say that it has nothing to do with the economy ..

....is the sort of comment that does decisively break the FF forum conventions.

Just a Thought.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} @cashbox ... I dont understand why you are addressing you further comments to me. concerns to me. Ive advised you of the personal advice Ive been given by Twee, on political discussion which I asume extends to religious comment.. and confirmed that I dont find it helpful but that Im obliged to respect it since its FFs site. You must write directly to Twee (FF Forum Manager) if you like me continue to be "befuddled". In the matter of religious comment in the context of market relevance.. I do feel (with respect to the poster), that...
it is only allowed to talk about religion if there is something related, you know? if the FF thinks that religion doesn’t affect the economy, their problem I think so and good at changing my thinking? the only site where freedom of expression doesn’t exist...
This is prophetic ... From the believer to the atheist, no one explains God.

understand why science doesn't make peace with religion. Enough for me.

Oh and you can delete my account that I don't care about. I will never stop talking about what I see on a certain subject .... if science understands how this virus is because they haven't found a cure yet? science lies giving us information to think that everything is fine and is not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLXPb1o3uz4
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
I'm not sure you can draw down on a gap year data collecting, then claim to be an expert in the field with such confidence.
I'm looking at the story, and not believing any information from China's authorities. I mean even how long they knew about it.
Actually I take the point information would be restricted with any country to avoid panic, only China you can multiply the effect.

I'm reading the words of the story and drawing logical conclusions, which I have to say is a major hurdle for someone like you who believes he's in the top 5% qualified to vote.

This virus has never been seen before,
It's brand new with China and the rest of the world taking it super seriously.


Quoting ekan
{quote} bones, when SARS hit back in 2003, I was working in Taipei in an interdisciplinary team studying the proteins involved in viral infection process for different viruses. so, i am very well familiar with what is going on now - both from scientific point of view and as an actual resident of a [place that was seriously affected in the last round. the way CCP has responded and handled the emerging infection is a very interesting topic on its own, and it merits serious analysis from the point of the coming confrontation of the West with The Socialism...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
I'm not sure you can draw down on a gap year data collecting, then claim to be an expert in the field with such confidence. I'm looking at the story, and not believing any information from China's authorities. I mean even how long they knew about it. Actually I take the point information would be restricted with any country to avoid panic, only China you can multiply the effect. I'm reading the words of the story and drawing logical conclusions, which I have to say is a major hurdle for someone like you who believes he's in the top 5% qualified...
"Gap year"? Mwa ha ha ha ha.....thank you for the compliment, bones! Really made my day.

Don't worry, Brexit is about to flare up again, soon you will be back to your familiar territory. It will keep you out commenting on stuff you have no clue about whatsoever.
I know that story is moving the markets and chinas busy building temp hospitals
I also know they locked down millions of people.
I know other than the family of virus they place the virus it's never been seen before and their learning on the fly how its operating.
That's why you don't know any more than me or the experts .
Meanwhile ekan claims its a non story
The main thing for the markets is its contagious and could affect world economy.


Quoting ekan
{quote} "Gap year"? Mwa ha ha ha ha.....thank you for the compliment, bones! Really made my day. Don't worry, Brexit is about to flare up again, soon you will be back to your familiar territory. It will keep you out commenting on stuff you have no clue about whatsoever.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
I can give you an example ,on your trades
selling JPY ?
Holding potential safe haven chf sell in the wake of the story

word of advise on the way your going about it
read the weekly chart ,then at least you won't be trapped for weeks relying on luck

I mean nearly all trades go a long way against you ,and you hold for weeks ,
so your on the weekly chart
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
I know that story is moving the markets and chinas busy building temp hospitals I also know they locked down millions of people. I know other than the family of virus they place the virus it's never been seen before and their learning on the fly how its operating. That's why you don't know any more than me or the experts . Meanwhile ekan claims its a non story The main thing for the markets is its contagious and could affect world economy. {quote}
Again, bones' typical way to debate - make claims, then twist and turn in the next shot after the response arrives

When did I say it is a non-event on the markets? I said the virus appears 1) not to be as lethal as SARS 2) that I'd rather in this case trust officially available information, however bad CCP may be at telling the truth in general, over wildly exaggerated fear-inducing conspiracy theories. Those are the points I was making.


Quoting Bones
I know other than the family of virus they place the virus it's never been seen before and their learning on the fly how its operating. {quote}
This quote so perfectly illustrates the cliche how little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The "family" they put the virus on is not just a haphazard thing, just stick it in there because the biologist that was at work today decided on the toss of a coin.

The dog is in family Canines, along with fox, wolf, hyena, and a whole bunch of all similar animals who have similar morphology (body type), are all carnivores, etc etc. No animal in the dog family has wings like a bird, 3 ranks of teeth like sharks, and lays eggs like turtles. Canines are all much more similar that they are different.

The same principle apples to viruses. A coronavirus can't all of a sudden start killing people by hemorrhaging like Ebola or eating their immune cells like HIV - if it did it wouldn't be coronavirus no longer.
The medics KNOW how it works - but knowledge by itself is worthless, it is what you do with it. It means hospital beds, nurses topping up IV banks 24/7, masks, ambulances running quickly, quarantines being enforced, quarantine people getting meals delivered by professional staff, lab technicians running genomic tests on sequencers to confirm or reject causes of infection, and million other things.

And this is not a "new" virus - just it escaped attention of humans as long as it was not infecting either humans or livestock. Coronaviruses are among the least studied among viruses, partially because they are very hard to cultivate in the lab. Specialists could in principle know all viruses circulating in animal populations, but they don't. The reason is lack of qualified manpower and money. Scientists prioritize, just like everyone else with limited resources.

So no, bones, you do not know as much as the experts do. Bloody far from it.

Enough biology lessons for today.
For those who may not have seen this television series a long time ago. Watch the first part only about how this virus gets out and spreads....scary stuff....
Attached Image

Im NOT saying this was a lab accident gone wrong - let us pray that is not the case.

In the past SARS was more scare than reality.

Then there was H1N1 otherwise called the swine flu.

Ebola was a RIDICULOUS scare here in the USA. The transmission of ebola makes is self-limiting.

However airbourne transmission and the different vectors being unknown make me wonder.

I am one to normally equate all this fear to chicken little syndrome but with the massive lock down in China I''m not going to blow this off and follow and learn.
...because you never know - until you do!
Some numerical data from a real Chinese source I just got:
4633 is infected, 6972 is suspected, 106 is dead, 73 is confirmed recovered
The other file is China data broken down by provinces (Hubei, where the epicentre Wuhan is, is on top).
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It's new
also they are learning it on the fly.

I wasn't born yesterday ,
I know for a fact as soon as any doctor sees something unusual there about as useful as you or me in tackling it.
Your the one randomly long EJ after a bearish week like that ,says it all
wild horses wouldn't make me long that weekly

Its your tone that made me think you believe its a non event ,non story

"It is a precautionary measure. Cutting of a number of cities (not just Wuhan but also a few others in Hubei province) all of which have more than a million residents is casting a really fine net really wide. CCP has been really jumpy about it."

Novel virus refers to a virus not seen before. It can be a virus that is isolated from its reservoir or isolated as the result of spread to an animal or human host where the virus had not been identified before.



Quoting ekan
{quote} Again, bones' typical way to debate - make claims, then twist and turn in the next shot after the response arrives When did I say it is a non-event on the markets? I said the virus appears 1) not to be as lethal as SARS 2) that I'd rather in this case trust officially available information, however bad CCP may be at telling the truth in general, over wildly exaggerated fear-inducing conspiracy theories. Those are the points I was making. {quote} This quote so perfectly illustrates the cliche how little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The...
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
here's the lesson why its taken so serious ,over another known killer simple virus's
I know this because I'm practical

There word new in its description.Thats brand new they don't know, but the Chinese are willing to shut down
millions
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
here's the lesson why its taken so serious ,over another known killer simple virus's I know this because I'm practical There word new in its description.Thats brand new they don't know, but the Chinese are willing to shut down millions
I can see two (2) sides to this story:

1. The Chinese government has recognized something new and because of this is taking ample precautions and shutting down areas BEFORE the Chinese New Year (which would really spread)

2. The Chinese government is scared because they cant get a handle on the spread so they quarantine people to try and keep a lid on a scary situation.

People fall into one or the other camp above depending upon how/do you trust the China government....


For those who may not have seen this movie, Outbreak, I recommend the movie. What people need to watch is what happens to a town when the army prevents people from leaving....
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...because you never know - until you do!
You can't compare a virus to a dog like family
Virus isn't even on the tree of life ,mutations are how it evolves.



Quoting ekan
{quote} Again, bones' typical way to debate - make claims, then twist and turn in the next shot after the response arrives When did I say it is a non-event on the markets? I said the virus appears 1) not to be as lethal as SARS 2) that I'd rather in this case trust officially available information, however bad CCP may be at telling the truth in general, over wildly exaggerated fear-inducing conspiracy theories. Those are the points I was making. {quote} This quote so perfectly illustrates the cliche how little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
Its your tone that made me think you believe its a non event ,non story \.
Correct, I think the Wuhan virus infection effect on currency markets as far as the major 8 currencies are concerned is minor (but not 0) compared to other events and developments, such as the last week's ECB rate announcement (it turned out to be not so impactful) or Thursday's pending Fed and BOE rate decisions. However, my commenting on this thread was not on market impact, but on other issues.

Hence, I am not adjusting any of my trading to expect a black swan-type of volatility, rather welcome slight increase in volatility from the stolid stillness of the markets past UK elections and Phase one deal to close to normal levels. And, the risk-off months of the year are coming shortly, another reason for me to cheer.

I will not discuss my trading methods further here because 1) it is not the right thread 2) no matter how much and how hard I explain my tradings, you are forever set in your rigid beliefs and my methods clash with those. You keep mistaking the features of my trading approach for bugs and continue to try to "correct" them. Let's not waste any more time on this exercise in futility.
Quoting Bones
Virus isn't even on the tree of life ,mutations are how it evolves. {quote}
And the rest of the "tree of life" evolve how exactly....Oh.......sorry, I forgot....they are intelligently designed, no need to evolve.

You really ought to stop embarrassing yourself by these comments.
Quoting ekan
{quote} Correct, I think the Wuhan virus infection effect on currency markets as far as the major 8 currencies are concerned is minor (but not 0) compared to other events and developments, such as the last week's ECB rate announcement (it turned out to be not so impactful) or Thursday's pending Fed and BOE rate decisions. However, my commenting on this thread was not on market impact, but on other issues. Hence, I am not adjusting any of my trading to expect a black swan-type of volatility, rather welcome slight increase in volatility from the stolid...
Ekan - good explanation. I actually agree with you as of today.

Nevertheless, I expect this Chinese virus impact to grow slowly and it does have the potential for a black swan event. In fact, given the levels of the USA stock market what happened yesterday did not surprise me for a second, in fact I expect 1 or 2 more days of 400+ loss on the Dow before this is over.
...because you never know - until you do!
Just saying all those trades you hold for weeks could be avoided ,eventually your be caught trying directly against the weekly
is a simple test.

Your reading is a bit like cable won't go 13200 and Boris wasn't bullish at that time ,

A virus isn't categorised like life with cells ,Virus isn't on the tree of life full stop.
I doubt evolution to be comparable at all like you describe and your the expert





Quoting ekan
{quote} Correct, I think the Wuhan virus infection effect on currency markets as far as the major 8 currencies are concerned is minor (but not 0) compared to other events and developments, such as the last week's ECB rate announcement (it turned out to be not so impactful) or Thursday's pending Fed and BOE rate decisions. However, my commenting on this thread was not on market impact, but on other issues. Hence, I am not adjusting any of my trading to expect a black swan-type of volatility, rather welcome slight increase in volatility from the stolid...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
It's new
Yes, a new strain of a known family. Is like you go to a car dealer and drive out a Toyota Corolla, which is new relative to your old Toyota Camry. Both are Toyota sedans, so you drove the new one right away. Thew new one did not turn to be an Airbus 320, which is what you are making it to be.

Quoting Bones
also they are learning it on the fly.
The coronaviral infections have a set of parameters and features. The medics WERE learning what of these features were present and what their values were. I'd say by now we have sufficiently large sample size to have good qualitative and quantitative handle on those parameters. For instance, it is clear unlike SARS this strain does not cause gastrointestinal symptoms, only respiratory - that has been clarified. Noone has reported any unusual non-coronavirus clinical picture.

First drug tests have commenced and suggest some known antivirals may be effective - to what degree it is too early to say, science is not instant.

So, overall, the more we know this new strain, the more it become clear it is a pretty usual coronavirus. Not a new T-virus.

Note - the virus has spread to countries like USA, Australia, Japan and Thailand, who are very unlikely to form a conspiracy with CCP in terms of what they observe and learn about this infection. Noone has come out to say their observations contradict those of the hospitals in the People's Republic. So, if CCP was covering up a new T-virus, they would have been exposed by now.

Quoting Bones
I wasn't born yesterday , I know for a fact as soon as any doctor sees something unusual there about as useful as you or me in tackling it.
No they aren't. Doctors are not omnipotent for sure, but hardly as useless as traders. This isn't the first viral infection to jump the inter-species barrier. The doctors can do plenty, and they have been doing it. For instance, as I wrote above, they immediately tried giving patients existing anti-viral drugs. some beneficial effect was observed, but nothing spectacular, unfortunately.
Quoting Bones
I doubt evolution to be comparable at all like you describe and your the expert {quote}
You doubt?? But you do not know? Yet you try to judge who is expert and who is not? Hmmmmmmm.......

May I suggest you go and find a few articles and Wikipedia entries to read and then come back after you know.
So your long EJ
only just started the long process ,

Heads up thats risky on the the type of trading your doing

Your No 1 rule is I will hold until the end of the world to be right.

look back usd chf you started longs up to 160 away so I know you started at a risky time without being and expert in any candles at all ,maybe check the weekly before you start weekly trades
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Quoting fxsport
{quote}Nevertheless, I expect this Chinese virus impact to grow slowly and it does have the potential for a black swan event. In fact, given the levels of the USA stock market what happened yesterday did not surprise me for a second, in fact I expect 1 or 2 more days of 400+ loss on the Dow before this is over.
That will depend on the number and extent of second and following waves of infections spawned by the carriers from the first wave that originated from Wuhan. I'd say considering the systems and routines put in place in 2003 to deal with SARS are still operational in Asia (it's not just academic for me: I am currently in Singapore staying mere 400 m from the hotel where one of the initial 3 confirmed cases stayed!), I think the probability of a major world-wide pandemic is low. Of course, anything is possible, but trading is about probabilities, not possibilities. I expect this week to be the peak, with the infections tapering off in subsequent weeks, the full number of infected over the course of the winter reaching or slightly exceeding the SARS cases, at 8-10k persons, 12 k at most, with mortality rate most likely not exceeding 4% compared to SARS' 10%.

400 points on a Dow is just volatility returning back to normal levels. At 29 k , 400 drop is about 1.3%, hardly a remarkable event in the history of markets, certainly way weaker than a black swat event.

As of now, yesterday's drop has been engulfed by a bullish candle, so.....bears may get disappointed yet again.
I know a virus isn't comparable to a dog for a fact
like a dog is comparable to horse

Quoting ekan
{quote} You doubt?? But you do not know? Yet you try to judge who is expert and who is not? Hmmmmmmm....... May I suggest you go and find a few articles and Wikipedia entries to read and then come back after you know.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
I looked it up for you ,why the mutation is different

Viruses undergo evolution and natural selection, just like cell- based life, and most of them evolve rapidly. When two viruses infect a cell at the same time, they may swap genetic material to make new, "mixed" viruses with unique properties. ... RNA viruses have high mutation rates that allow especially fast evolution
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Quoting Bones
I looked it up for you ,why the mutation is different Viruses undergo evolution and natural selection, just like cell- based life, and most of them evolve rapidly. When two viruses infect a cell at the same time, they may swap genetic material to make new, "mixed" viruses with unique properties. ... RNA viruses have high mutation rates that allow especially fast evolution
You look it up "for me", heh? Wow, thank you bones, even though it was absolutely unnecessary - I know how evolution works, even down to molecular level.

There it is: "viruses undergo evolution and natural selection, JUST LIKE cell-based life". The mechanism is the same at molecular level, although certain details are different, and the rate much faster.

And yes, that direct genetic material swap, that's well known in bacteria also. It's their equivalent of sex, which they can't have for obvious reasons.
Logic dictates comparing even bacteria families to a virus is just stupid.Let alone a Dog family.
Bacteria is a living thing ,a virus is not classed as a living entity.
So that Virus went from infecting a bat only to a snake to a human to another human.
In evolutionary terms in lighting speed.



Quoting ekan
{quote} You look it up "for me", heh? Wow, thank you bones, even though it was absolutely unnecessary - I know how evolution works, even down to molecular level. There it is: "viruses undergo evolution and natural selection, JUST LIKE cell-based life". The mechanism is the same at molecular level, although certain details are different, and the rate much faster. And yes, that direct genetic material swap, that's well known in bacteria also. It's their equivalent of sex, which they can't have for obvious reasons.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
What you're saying is you can forecast how that Virus will act from its allocation to the family of other Virus pretty much = it can't make any leaps in evolution,Just like living animals cannot in short periods.
At first you didn't even seem to accept its brand new .Which is in its current name.
I don't need to research to know the story itself says they just don't know what its capable of or how dangerous it is.
Or even how fast it can mutate from what it is now .

Quoting ekan
{quote} You look it up "for me", heh? Wow, thank you bones, even though it was absolutely unnecessary - I know how evolution works, even down to molecular level. There it is: "viruses undergo evolution and natural selection, JUST LIKE cell-based life". The mechanism is the same at molecular level, although certain details are different, and the rate much faster. And yes, that direct genetic material swap, that's well known in bacteria also. It's their equivalent of sex, which they can't have for obvious reasons.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting gravitist
"And if Trump is right?" Well, that would be a first, now wouldn't it?
Hi blabber

When Bitcoin to zerooouuuu??.?
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Quoting gravitist
Bitcoin? Really? You've got to be kidding. Remember the Mt Gox fiasco where the guy running the bitcoin exchange ran off with the money? Remember how bitcoin was used by criminals to buy and sell illegal stuff on dark web tor sites? Ban Bitcoin.
Hiya pimbo.

You banning Bitcoin still???

Bitcoin was $200 at your rant...
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
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