NZD/USD: Head and Shoulders Top?

From my technical analysis, I agree with you. My view is that NZDUSD is on a descending channel since 27-02-2008. And now the downtrend since 15-07-2008 is gaining momentum, which lead us to targets between 0,73 / 0,70.
This gains more evidence since the movement from July seams to me as an impulsive movement and not a corrective one. And if my analysis is not wrong, this will happen quickly.

Wade,

You are right from both fundamental and technical points of view. NZD will cut interest rates down to the 5%, in my opinion, because of their faltering economy. Inflation will ease too, in NZD. They simply have no choice. I mean they have, just not worth it.
Regards,

Kiwi has highly likely formed a long-term top. RBNZ will be keen to lower interest rate provided commodity prices keep dropping. The same is true for the Fed. Their hands are tied right now and any sign of housing recovery will trigger rapid rate rise. Fundamentals dictate Kiwi should be sold whenever any good opportunity arise. Technically speaking, have a look at last year's chart. Kiwi fell off a cliff (around 1500pips) from mid July to mid August and we seem to be on a similar path this year as well. Only time will tell if we will break through 6640 just yet but given where we are now, it is certainly worth a shot. Finally it might seem ambitious but I can see a rising wedge on the weekly chart. Weekly close below 0.700 would certainly indicate that 0.5926 will be tested a lot sooner than I initially had expected.

c/d be..you 'd have to go all the way back to the St. Patricks Day turn'around to see a red volume cluster like we have in place over the last 48 hours or so -- big volume in AUDUSD also.

I've got the trend down on the monthly too for the first time since mid-'06 in NZDUSD, with a daily close below the yearly central pivot.

You have potential support at a .382 retrace on the weekly at .7351, but w/ big MO down like this I'd say she runs to the bull t-l at .7230 or so...just one man's opinion.

it's been a surprise, for sure, but for now she is heavily oversold. such instant sell-off moves tend to be rejected, for being retried in a more serious fashion. i've been there at release time, instant 85p and no recovery yet.
The deepest point i can see is 0.7350-0.73. According to half-yearly and yearly std. devs. further down is technically impossible without a retrace. I don't want to look at the longer term since that's not my style. I'm in for a recovery move up to 0.7550, exiting half at 0.7485. In my opinion this retrace is unavoidable and I expect it shortly. IF not, the pair has to go sideways for a longer time, to relax the oversold situation, and for at least a week, which I don't see now. If nothing happens over the next week (end of the month btw), I will rethink my position, for now this is the most probable scenario for me.
Just my 2ct.

i am long at the moment. 0.75 at least. FREVD has his analysis on point with my day trading analysis. long now 75pips not bad.

From PA, point of view...It may be oversold and techincal rebounded mite tak place but it is ended with such a strong berish engulfing..RR is just not worth it.I will not be a Longist at the moment..

sonic