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Five things that could go wrong in 2020 to upend the U.S. economic expansion
The U.S. economy enters 2020 with a head of steam. OK, if not an all-powerful thrust, then enough to keep it humming at a 2% real rate of growth, which is estimated to be the economy’s potential. Recession fears, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates in 2018 and resultant yield-curve inversion last spring, seem to have abated. The Fed got the message that it had overstepped and lowered its benchmark rate three times in the latter half of 2019, which was enough to return the spread between the policy rate and the long-term Treasury yield to a normal, positive slope. That doesn’t ... (full story)
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