Australian Dollar Could Fall Sharply if RBA QE Becomes 'Live'

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent. The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. While the risks are still tilted to the downside, some of these risks have lessened recently. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system. Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks have eased monetary policy over recent months in response to the downside risks and subdued inflation. Expectations of further monetary easing have generally been scaled back. Financial market sentiment has continued to improve and long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the lower end of its range over recent times. After a soft patch in the second half of last year, the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point. The central scenario is for growth to pick up gradually to around 3 per cent in 2021. The low l tweet at 10:31pm: RBA: Given these effects of lower interest rates and the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy, the Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting while it continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market. https://t.co/LNb4TuT5Ci tweet at 10:34pm: RBA: SAYS NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION HAS WEAKENED -- SAYS INFLATION TO PICK UP ONLY GRADUALLY --GLOBAL EXPECTATIONS OF FURTHER MONETARY EASING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SCALED BACK tweet at 10:35pm: RBA: LOW RATES, TAX CUTS, INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING, UPSWING IN HOUSING PRICES AND A BRIGHTER RESOURCE SECTOR OUTLOOK SHOULD ALL SUPPORT GROWTH. tweet at 10:34pm: #RBA : - Reasonable to expect rates to remain low for an extended period - Prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed - Inflation to be close to 2% in 2020 & 2021 - Rates have put downward pressure on the exchange rate #AUD