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  • GBPUSD could trade positive-to-neutral in short-term

    From xm.com

    GBPUSD erased a small part of its gains that drove the price near the 1.3000 key resistance area but the 1.2800 mark, which is currently viewed as a nearby support, curbed the downside correction. The short-term bias is currently looking positive-to-neutral as the RSI is reversing back towards its 70 overbought mark and the MACD keeps losing momentum below its signal line. On the other hand, trend signals seem to be turning even positive as the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) prepares to cross the longer-term 200-day SMA after breaching the 50-day SMA in September (double bullish cross). A closing price above the ... (full story)

I hope the market will calm down
ie range at current levers in current uncertainty.
Yes.
subject to dollar/DXY volatility
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
I need a bearish trend, I hope the prognosis will not come true
Quoting RossEdwards
ie range at current levers in current uncertainty. Yes. subject to dollar/DXY volatility
I agree. I changed my sentiment from bearish to neutral. The Brexit drama should be quiet for a while now that the new deadline is set for 31.01.2020 and new elections are coming.

With Powel just having done as was expected of him, and the CCP-Trump Phase One trade deal looming, USD is likely to stay where it is.

Seems like the volatility malaise one recent "news" was talking about for the yen is about to infect the pound.

Adjusted my grid gap from 20 pips to 12, and moved the end point at breakeven 1.2755. It netted very little profit last 3 days (including today) with GBPUSD staying pinned at ~1.285.
Your grid ea short is wrong ,
its set up short because that's what you think in the first place or you take the trades yourself

Quoting ekan
{quote} I agree. I changed my sentiment from bearish to neutral. The Brexit drama should be quiet for a while now that the new deadline is set for 31.01.2020 and new elections are coming. With Powel just having done as was expected of him, and the CCP-Trump Phase One trade deal looming, USD is likely to stay where it is. Seems like the volatility malaise one recent "news" was talking about for the yen is about to infect the pound. Adjusted my grid gap from 20 pips to 12, and moved the end point at breakeven 1.2755. It netted very little...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
lets see the grid
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
no stops mentioned ,your not using them, its martingale
could get lucky ,
monthly says shorts a guess
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
false prior weekly like that
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Quoting Bones
Your grid ea short is wrong , its set up short because that's what you think in the first place or you take the trades yourself {quote}
He he he he. This is the moment you have been waiting for, bones, isn't it. The moment that arrogant cleverly clogs blows up...

You are right, bones. I screwed up. It's the "m" word! And "m" never works! It's gonna blow 20k! The sky is falling! OMG! OMG! (Relax, it is just sarcasm)

I think I am just gonna let this one unfold for a while longer. Cheers.
No I'm glad your talking trading in a round about way ,you guys know all the fundi facts but not how to use them .

Ok ,why is GBP bearish when an election has just been agreed ,the chance to change the outlook at least...
Then Boris (probably win) has a deal he's bound to come to the country with.
Or the others all but Brexit Party have reverse type policy.

Instead of doubling your position in the last 24 hr you should have closed.It was 0.7
it's a risky time to be short because tomorrow is the 1st,the monthly can open just like this week.
I'm letting you know in advance the weekly last is highly likely false

If this is side ,then its bullish side

Im not sure if you hide behind the claim of a EA doing the work or it's just you....

Martingale works if you have the direction,I see it all the time



Quoting ekan
{quote} He he he he. This is the moment you have been waiting for, bones, isn't it. The moment that arrogant cleverly clogs blows up... You are right, bones. I screwed up. It's the "m" word! And "m" never works! It's gonna blow 20k! The sky is falling! OMG! OMG! (Relax, it is just sarcasm) I think I am just gonna let this one unfold for a while longer. Cheers.
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Ross will be the same ,because there's no balance in your analysis ,day in day out and I assume you're not technical at all.
The other day @ the start of this move, after a 250 pip D1 candle, he was looking short
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
No I'm glad your talking trading in a round about way ,you guys know all the fundi facts but not how to use them . Ok ,why is GBP bearish when an election has just been agreed ,the chance to change the outlook at least... Then Boris (probably win) has a deal he's bound to come to the country with. Or the others all but Brexit Party have reverse type policy. Instead of doubling your position in the last 24 hr you should have closed.It was 0.7 it's a risky time to be short because tomorrow is the 1st,the monthly can open just like this week. I'm letting...
20k gown down.. this trader is a gambler
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
Quoting Bones
No I'm glad your talking trading in a round about way ,you guys know all the fundi facts but not how to use them .
A while ago you said something very similar, "there are valid arguments for EU but you do not use them". When I asked what those are, you did not reply, so I suppose this is just a rhetorical device on your part that need not be paid too much attention to.

Quoting Bones
Ok ,why is GBP bearish when an election has just been agreed ,the chance to change the outlook at least...
Then Boris (probably win) has a deal he's bound to come to the country with.
Or the others all but Brexit Party have reverse type policy.
Boris' win means high chance for a hard Brexit and markets have consistently weakened the pound every time hard Brexit (and no deal is a variant of Hard Brexit) odds have gone up. But that is pretty far away stuff. Months from now. I do not like to make a prediction on how markets will react on Boris' win (if that happens).

Two weeks ago I judged GBPUSD quite overbought on technical grounds and reaching an important resistance area. After GBPUSD printed 1.30 and GBPJPY 140 (both of which I called correctly btw), there was indeed a pullback, just it wasn't as hard and fast I anticipated (that is where the ~1800 USD profit of the grid came from!).

Unlike you (?) I do not see a strong bullish case for GBP right now (if I did, I'd put another copy of the EA with a separate magic number running long on GBPJPY - if the yen drives that pair low enough I might still do it). I also do not see a strong bearish case right now. So, it's a range. Grids love range. Yum yum. The choppier the tastier.

The cable rise over the last ~24 h is a dollar move not a pound move. GBPJPY is falling today - it's a yen move. Discussing the dollar side of cable is a totally another story. My anticipation based on market behaviour so far is that the markets did a "risk on" on the sugar high from Powel's cake yesterday. It will take one bad economic report or Orange Man tweet and the bots switch to "risk off". In fact, as I write, cable is already starting to range without even having touched the high of 2 weeks ago, the upward momentum is fading, the grid has started cashing in at the top of the range (still a pittance though, not volatile enough).

Quoting Bones
Instead of doubling your position in the last 24 hr you should have closed.It was 0.7
it's a risky time to be short because tomorrow is the 1st,the monthly can open just like this week.
I'm letting you know in advance the weekly last is highly likely false
The risk/position is not doubled. There is no way you can actually judge the risk without seeing my EA inputs and understanding the built-in trading logic (and I am not going to tell you). In fact I think my initial risk level was quite moderate and I have spare capital to beef it up.

I could have chosen to close the opened transactions yesterday before the Fed at a loss booking about ~1500 USD over 2 weeks, but I chose not to. That shows you I am confident cable will make a pullback towards the 1.27xx area. Nothing drastic, though (nor do I need it to be). The more cable churns, the more money the grid makes as long as the churn is vigorous. So cable can take its sweet time (every night the swap goes caching....4 days pays off commission...2.5 months doubles profit).

Quoting Bones
If this is side ,then its bullish side
At this junction, I call it a range. I might be wrong though, just....the grid helps me stay profitable even when I am wrong. Even if I call it wrong right now, set a hard global stop loss, I will still book ~ 800 USD profit.

Quoting Bones
Im not sure if you hide behind the claim of a EA doing the work or it's just you....
Geeez....even by my standard that's cold. I could send you a screen shot of my VPs with the MT4 running the EA, but I owe you no proof nor explanation. You are free to believe whatever.

I can say from the way you write you have no practical experience with this type of trading else you'd know running a grid manually, especially one as tight as this (20 pips, now 12, between levels) needs one to be in front of the screen 24/5 (you can check trade duration in the explorer and see the range).

Considering there are probably >100 MT4 grid EAs for sale (at all levels of cost/sophistication), who would be so dumb as to do manual grid trading. It'd be a tremendous loss to spend my time in Bangkok locked up in the apartment all the time just to play a little FF trade explorer fake game.
It will break the range high ,I never used an EA because I don't need to .

Boris has a deal ,which when mentioned kicked off this entire run. Hard or Soft is not important because it has a transition ,kicking the ball way into the long grass.
It's the trade deal or no deal later that would move the market.

Why you think it will churn much further is beyond me ,it went up 600 pips this month.Which you were selling before this pause.
Even this article is a big guess with a professional edge .

Its not going below 12775 before breaking up ,& could well do tomorrow which takes your shorts to 13200 and profit to well into the minus after a little lucky run




Quoting ekan
{quote} A while ago you said something very similar, "there are valid arguments for EU but you do not use them". When I asked what those are, you did not reply, so I suppose this is just a rhetorical device on your part that need not be paid too much attention to. {quote} Boris' win means high chance for a hard Brexit and markets have consistently weakened the pound every time hard Brexit (and no deal is a variant of Hard Brexit) odds have gone up. But that is pretty far away stuff. Months from now. I do not like to make a prediction on...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
You would know already what I think is good about the EU , it just dose not include anything remotely superstate like.
EU had their chance.Migration was the focus of the Uk people at the time .
If you can't control your boarders when there's a obvious problem with housing and services and magnified attraction of certain areas of a small country, taking people willy nilly, that's when you start thinking no thanks mate.

Quoting ekan
{quote} A while ago you said something very similar, "there are valid arguments for EU but you do not use them". When I asked what those are, you did not reply, so I suppose this is just a rhetorical device on your part that need not be paid too much attention to. {quote} Boris' win means high chance for a hard Brexit and markets have consistently weakened the pound every time hard Brexit (and no deal is a variant of Hard Brexit) odds have gone up. But that is pretty far away stuff. Months from now. I do not like to make a prediction on...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
the weekly is telling you ,that last red one is not right ,
NFP will have be super good to change it
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Quoting Bones
Why you think it will churn much further is beyond me ,it went up 600 pips this month.Which you were selling before this pause.
Wait, what? Me selling GBP? Are you sure? Throughout the summer months when everyone and their dog here were salivating over cable 1.05...nay, parity....I was writing posts about not selling at all-monthly chart lows going back to 1992!

Before the long engine really fired up on October 10, I ran a long GBPJPY grid from after the pinbar on Sep 3 to the exhaustion move 10 days later, then I closed it off bcuz I got scared it was going to turn down on the monday after (as it did). At that time we were arguing and I told you that I was out of market just watching because I could not decide on a direction based on the technicals.

You said I should let you know when I made a call. I decided to do something better - a trade explorer. It would be nice if you reciprocate. Let's see your real trading

The really big Oct 10 move I missed due to travelling....but I did a bit of opportunistic scalping cable short at Friday USA midday and afternoon (was very nice....even held one short to catch the weekend gap). Then I called a pullback...which happened, but was a mild one. Then political news about the deal and DUP came out, I changed my bias to long and called 1.30 on cable and 140 on the dragon. After these were met, I called another pullback, set up this new account and turned the grid on time to catch the fireworks on EU council day 17th (pity no fireworks today...no corpse in a ditch either). All of this is traceable in the comments that are still accessible through my profile.

The rest is visible on the trade explorer.

I have been cautiously bullish throughout the summer all the way to Oct 17. Then was shortly bearish, now am neutral, as the bearish stance clearly turned out wrong.

You are confusing my political adamantly hard anti-Brexiteer stance with my GBP directional bias even though I told you many times before I do not trade my political opinions. GBP is attractive to me because of its superb volatility (or maybe I should say was, because little volatility left now), not because I have a stake in UK (I don't).
Quoting Bones
the weekly is telling you ,that last red one is not right , NFP will have be super good to change it {image}
So you drew a channel but you don't think is going to the channel bottom first before makes another touch at the upper line higher than the one it did last week? I am not sure I buy that. But you have your opinion I have mine.

Then there is the dollar to consider. I am not convinced 0.25 bp cut can send it into another serious move down after the one it has already experienced. Powel's statement was neutral, saying pause in cuts. Phase One deal is supposedly happening. All is right with the world. Dollar can only weaken on "risk on" basis, and that is easily spooked. Dollar strength can be enough to hold cable in range even if GBP keeps pushing higher.

I said it is hard for me to see a strong bullish case for GBP (and less so for cable) at this point but no bear case either, now that no deal has been cut off.
I don't need a trade explorer I'm here every week posting charts.
Explorer is worthless ,lest see what you're doing taking loads of 0.1 trades.You add the same trade together for pip gain.
It's all good for equity curve without dip and pips made isn't it .Thats what matters to you.

I don't trade 0.1 s why put myself under pressure ,for what.




"You said I should let you know when I made a call. I decided to do something better - a trade explorer. It would be nice if you reciprocate. Let's see your real trading"
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
this candle can close with an upper wick and be bullish ,or just take that high
least I can spot the danger
then give full reasoning
no secret squirrel grid EA ,with a lovely curve.
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Quoting Bones
I don't need a trade explorer I'm here every week posting charts. Explorer is worthless
With all due respect (which is none!) posting charts IS worthless. I get 5 per day in my inbox from Autochartist complete with TP SL and trade expected duration, for free courtesy to IC Markets. Charting is cheap, same as talk.

There is a reason why trade explorer is the industry standard for independently audited trade performance (I am a FXBlue user as well). I am sure you know but in case you don't - it takes info directly from your broker account using MT4 investor password. All activity in the account is visible (although you can choose to hide certain numbers, which I have deliberately opted not to do), no cheating, no BS, no passing demo results as real money.

Quoting Bones
lest see what you're doing taking loads of 0.1 trades.You add the same trade together for pip gain.
It's all good for equity curve without dip and pips made isn't it .Thats what matters to you.
That's the point. Trade explorer makes it possible to see. None of this is any secret, grid trading is very well known tactic, with so many educational documents and videos out there. I claim no special insight or magic sauce even though I do keep certain elements of the strategy like the actual settings used on the EA to myself. (The seller of my EA has tons of videos and even a trader forum (for clients) where he puts pretty much everything out in the open.) I only collect the pips. I always thought that was the point of trading.

Quoting Bones
I don't trade 0.1 s why put myself under pressure ,for what.
Indeed, you do not need. However, unless you put your money where your mouth is, that is what you are - just a big mouth. Let's see besides being able to produce pretty charts with nice lines your execution prowess and your emotional endurance trading these charts with a sizeable account and lot sizes (since you sneer on 0.1s).
im talking charts that are accurate-right day in day out, your talking machine gun entries that go into the red day one.
Tell you what if I'm not right within a couple of days, I'm definitely not holding.
You can't close those losers because of the curve. I think you're doing that side at least because you close some randomly
Maintaining a win rate. I couldn't live on the peanuts your making and sometime this week or next I see my prediction of where that account is going to be right.
let us see how deep you let that curve go or if it fell like a rock you'd maintain things as if nothing happened.

Worst kind of member who has one of these lucky dip setups then direct others to it like your a hero.

Quoting ekan
{quote} With all due respect (which is none!) posting charts IS worthless. I get 5 per day in my inbox from Autochartist complete with TP SL and trade expected duration, for free courtesy to IC Markets. Charting is cheap, same as talk. There is a reason why trade explorer is the industry standard for independently audited trade performance. I am sure you know but in case you don't - it takes info directly from your broker account using MT4 investor password. All activity in the account is visible (although you can choose to hide certain numbers,...
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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Quoting Bones
{image}
Yawn. Stop showing me my account, bones, I know how it looks like. It is yours I want to see. Pony up or shut up.
I'm posting it while it's there haha

Quoting ekan
{quote} Yawn. Stop showing me my account, bones, I know how it looks like. It is yours I want to see.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
I'm posting it while it's there haha {quote}
Yes, it is there and there it will remain as well as on FXBlue. In the meantime yours is nowhere to be seen, just plenty of BS. Yada yada.
Quoting Bones
im talking charts that are accurate-right day in day out.
Without real, BS- and manipulation-proof trading performance to back it up, it is just empty BS. Forgive me if I remain skeptical.

The worst kind of FF member is the one who spews tons of one liner BS to earn his red rhomboid and claim some "guru" status ("i am here posting accurate charts day in and day out....") while being way too chicken to show real money trades.

Pony up, bones, or shut up.
I'm forecasting your account with that position, its the exact same as cable itself...
Seems reluctant to even go to your worst position, when the curve hits 0 the EA will have had enough and close...
all that work gone

Quoting ekan
{quote} Without real, BS- and manipulation-proof trading performance to back it up, it is just empty BS. Forgive me if I remain skeptical. The worst kind of FF member is the one who spews tons of one liner BS to earn his red rhomboid and claim some "guru" status ("i am here posting accurate charts day in and day out....") while being way too chicken to show real money trades. Pony up, bones, or shut up.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
I'm forecasting your account with that position, its the exact same as cable itself... Seems reluctant to even go to your worst position, when the curve hits 0 the EA will have had enough and close... all that work gone {quote}
Let's see...

It's friday, 11 am in NYC....morning session almost gone....time for traders to start wrapping up for the week.... Non-Farm Payroll passed....GBPUSD yawned.....ISM Manu. PMI passed.....GBPUSD yawned. Prospects for 1.32 start to look dim. Seems like a range is on the making. And if the baseline at 1.280x does not hold.....then it is a double top. And we know what double top portends, don't we, bones. The 68.1 Fib at 1.270x beckons....

That's what MY up-to-date real time chart shows right now, bones.....I do not share your optimistic appraisal of the situation with respect to cable.
could be
just saying ,its bullish over that open for the month ,in that space
could well gap up over that res ,but bearish poss if it made it to 13.200


Quoting ekan
{quote} Let's see... It's friday, 11 am in NYC....morning session almost gone....time for traders to start wrapping up for the week.... Non-Farm Payroll passed....GBPUSD yawned.....ISM Manu. PMI passed.....GBPUSD yawned. Prospects for 1.32 start to look dim. Seems like a range is on the making. And if the baseline at 1.280x does not hold.....then it is a double top. And we know what double top portends, don't we, bones. The 68.1 Fib at 1.270x beckons.... That's what MY up-to-date real time chart shows right now, bones.....I do not share your optimistic...
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
In the monthly chart, the just completed october candle just touched the 20 MA from below in a strong downtrend. Every time it has done that (or the inverse) on the chart (such as 06.2015, 06.2016 (!!!!!!), 08.2017, and 01, 05 and 11.2018), there has been a pullback. Statistically, chances (but no certainty of course) to do the same are pretty substantial.

I only need it to go to 1.2758 (the 20 MA on the dailies is now right there at 1.2739 beckoning to the price) and every single of >100 grid individual transactions will be in profit.

Every single one.

Good squirrel!
It looks bearish
Come with me if you want to live....
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  • Posted: Oct 30, 2019 6:36am
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    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 32  /  Views: 7,698