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This little-known recession indicator is now sending investors and consumers a warning
One leading indicator of a coming U.S. economic recession isn’t well-known — but it should be. Its record over the last four decades suggests we pay attention to it. This obscure indicator focuses on the divergence between the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Both are widely reported, and many investors view them as interchangeable. But James Stack, editor of the InvesTech Research newsletter, says that there are times when the two measures diverge and that these divergences are significant. Like now. The reason these two indices diverge, ... (full story)