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  • Central Banks may be Data Dependent, Whatever that Means, but Investors Aren't

    From marctomarket.com

    US jobs growth slowed in August, but nearly all the subsequent data, including retail sales, industrial and manufacturing output, housing starts, permits, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators were stronger than expected. Core CPI accelerated to an 11-year high of 2.4%. Economic surprise models have exploded, and Citibank's measure reached an 18-month high last week. The FOMC rate cut, statement, forecasts, and the chair's press conference did not alter the expectations of the trajectory of Fed policy for the remainder of the year. The fragmentation of Fed views (dots) notwithstanding, the implied ... (full story)

"We suspect that all things being equal, it would be better to keep the focus on the plumbing in October and return with the third cut in December, ahead of year-end."

Does anyone else see a third cut this year?
Quoting Mattress
"We suspect that all things being equal, it would be better to keep the focus on the plumbing in October and return with the third cut in December, ahead of year-end." Does anyone else see a third cut this year?
Yes! I am seeing another cut before the year-end. Fed will be pressured by Trump, he was pissed off when the Fed cut .25% instead of 50%, which Trump wanted to be cut last meeting.
Mattress, I suggest that the Jan 2020 fed funds futures contract has another quarter-point cut discounted.
discounted. A plurality of Fed officials see another cut being appropriate. My guess is that six of the seven are the board of governors and the NY Fed President.
If there is it would be politically driven rather than on fundamentals . More importantly is the Chinese/US truce priced in .

I think bar the kitchen sink " best case scenario " is already priced in .
Also for clarification .

There is minimal chance of any success in the forth coming trade talks . They might "paper over a few cracks " but nothing of substance will come forth .

Result :

Market sell-off

China is already buying Iranian oil to the tune of $400bn they're using yuan . To say the US is not happy is an understatement . I can actually see more sanctions being imposed by both sides as this game of chess plays out .
Quoting Trusted
Also for clarification . There is minimal chance of any success in the forth coming trade talks . They might "paper over a few cracks " but nothing of substance will come forth . Result : Market sell-off China is already buying Iranian oil to the tune of $400bn they're using yuan . To say the US is not happy is an understatement . I can actually see more sanctions being imposed by both sides as this game of chess plays out .

Can't even call it chess anymore mate both sides are literally dragging down the global economy. It's not benefitting either side as well with this prolonged game of chicken because they change their stances so quickly. It's becoming frustrating for individuals on the sideline trying to figure out which way the needle will move.
As markets go to risk on mode for the US / China meeting
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  • Posted: Sep 21, 2019 4:19pm
  • Submitted by:
     MarcChandler
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 7  /  Views: 3,702