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2019: Trade shrinks for the first time since Lehman
Even before the escalation of the tit-for-tat trade war, we knew that 2019 will be a tough year for world trade in goods. Trade levels dropped more than 3% in the last two months of 2018, making it an uphill battle to get to trade levels well above the average of 2018 - a battle that is about to be lost. On average, the monthly level of goods traded worldwide during the first half of this year has been 0.5% lower than the monthly level for 2018 as a whole. And there are no signs that the second half of 2019 will show a recovery that lifts trade growth anywhere close to the trade growth of 2018, which was 3.2%. ... (full story)