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Barclays Says No-Deal Brexit, BOE Rate Cuts Now Its Base Case
A no-deal Brexit looks “increasingly inevitable” with the U.K. entering a shallow recession next year, according to economists at Barclays Plc. Even if lawmakers manage to extend the process beyond Oct. 31, a departure from the European Union without any agreement in place is now the bank’s base-case scenario, Fabrice Montagne and Christian Keller wrote in an emailed note dated Tuesday. Disruption to the economy will likely be gradual at first, but a drop in the pound as low as $1.09 would fuel inflation, causing a slowdown to take hold within months, they said. That scenario would see the Bank of England cut ... (full story)