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Week ahead: isn’t Wyoming full of cowboys?
The US president’s attempt at de-escalating the China/US trade clash has not done much if anything to bolster confidence across global markets. Instead, the US 2y/10y yield curve has traded in inverted territory during the past week. This is often a bad sign for future growth. While one could argue that the yield curve has lost its forecasting prowess based on central bank asset purchases which may be distorting its signal, its empirical track-record remains much better than that of the economic consensus. The fixed income market may simply be telling us that the Fed is behind the curve – not doing enough to ... (full story)