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  • Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

    From federalreserve.gov

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based ... (full story)

Added at 2:05pm

  • Fed holds rates steady, sees no cuts in 2019

    From cnbc.com

    A divided Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates at its meeting this week and indicated there are still no cuts coming in 2019. The decision was by the thinnest of margins, though, and still leaves open the possibility that policy loosening could happen before the end of the year depending on how conditions unfold. The central bank expects a rate cut ahead, but not until 2020. In a decision closely watched by financial market participants clamoring for multiple cuts, central bank officials on the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to keep the benchmark rate in a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%, where it ... (full story)

Added at 2:07pm

  • Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement

    From cnbc.com

    This is a comparison of Wednesday’s FOMC statement with the one issued on May 1 after the Fed’s previous policy-making meeting. Text removed from the May statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle. Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined. Black text appears in both statements. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMayindicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity roseis risingat a solidmoderaterate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained ... (full story)

wow no movement
No cut no nothing
Good for Dollar
Duh... =D

What does the dot plot say about expectations? Methinks they put them down by a decent amount compared to where they used to be... (based on this price action currently)
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Fed Seen Signaling Cut by Losing Patience: Decision-Day Guide
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No wonder I bought this gold waiting 1500 !!
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Gold up .. why??
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But USD goes DOWN
Good old Fed stays cool ;-)
Press conference is where the real movement is. Powell on in 25 mins.
Euro has made a profitable rally much closer to my target, as forecast by the technicals'
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
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Why eurousd is rising then?
I dont see any negative new for dollar....$ might be up after some time
OLD expectatioins:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 39 KB


NEW:
Attached Image


Looks like the new are lower from 2019-2021. Just below 2.5 versus being above it before... right?
strong for dollar .... we will see buy usd
Market is always dinamic
Current EU move up is fake, the big players will correct it.
Quoting hesrondopa
strong for dollar .... we will see buy usd
Nope.. probable cut next meeting. And they just anchored interest rate expectations lower. See images above.
Quoting Pleiadian
Euro has made a profitable rally much closer to my target, as forecast by the technicals'
Then, Lock it brother.. SL +
Congrate
This is last opportunity to sell and go on a lengthy summer vacation .....caught the greedy buying before the sell offs begin 🤣
Why is the USD get so weak on EUR, are that just fake move?
I'm not sure why people were expecting a cut to begin with. Firstly it would have looked pretty bad on the FED if they just had a rate increase in Dec to then make a U-turn by June. I think once the trade issues die down once again USD will be in a comfortable position and economically speaking its still doing much better than the other developed economies at this current interval.
The solution is (x).
Nice lil cute dip to buy some more USD (imo)

Btw, technicals were once again correct
FOMC live link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrzHfhZncC0
Quoting skillz16
{quote} Nope.. probable cut next meeting. And they just anchored interest rate expectations lower. See images above.
in general, usd strength is very strong at this time ..... there is no actual info about the cut rate, especially the employment / unemployement is still very good, inflation rate good improvement
Market is always dinamic
So the fed are going to hold those rate for now in 2019, trying to keep under control the inflation.
FOMC Press Conference is more important. Wait for it.
"Rate cut" is what the media created to create the FOMO effect. Certainly, there will be members asking about it. Let's see if Fed corrects this news
Over the last 50 years, every single time that the Fed has cut rates with unemployment below 4%, unemployment shot up to at least 6% within the following 18 months.

A rate cut here would be a bad sign for the future of the US economy.
Quoting hesrondopa
{quote} in general, usd strength is very strong at this time ..... there is no actual info about the cut rate, especially the employment / unemployement is still very good, inflation rate good improvement
My post above, with the dot plots, implies the rate cut now... also the probabilities show it for next meeting: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

Now in the next meeting if there is no cut, THEN the EURUSD will plunge. Trying to scale longs here now/soon...

CORRECTION: so no fed cut next meeting maybe, but by them moving the dot plots down they are working the market to get them to take care of the "cut" right now/first.
Powell: "Business leaders tell us it has seldom been a better time as jobs are plentiful and wages are rising."
cut rate only talk by media not by FED
Market is always dinamic
Technically, a cut is being forecast for next meeting (end of JULY).. which I agree is kinda nuts. but... https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31 JUL Rate Cut.PNG Size: 52 KB


Guess is that those will change over the coming weeks, and the dollar will firm a bit more. That seems overdone. I'd still be looking to build overall longs over the next 10-15 trading days personally.
Eurusd correction in progress
nothing cut rate until end 2020
Market is always dinamic
vultures are trying to drive the conference to "rate cut" conferene
Quoting hesrondopa
nothing cut rate until end 2020
Market is already implying cut. And market expectations are everything. They will position to a cut over the next days. I give it a half a trading month for long entries, but just me.

The dot plot appears to have anchored the cut expectations and the market looks like it might "cut for the fed" so to speak...
Fed holds rates steady, still sees no cuts in 2019
Market is always dinamic
No half of members want a cute this year
Powell says the biggest part for the board decision is looking on consumer spending then wages on so on the line.
mmm crypto currencies?
the cut rate decision is under the authority of the FED ... FED says there is no cut rate in 2019 ... the job high progress ... the economy grows even though it is moderate ... inflation is around 1.8% to 1.9% and this is now being pursued so can grow to 2.1%, according to the target of 2.0% ... then where there is no concern for the media ... there is nothing to worry about ... only a new policy is needed so that economic growth is so strong and the inflation target can be achieved
Market is always dinamic
Quoting hesrondopa
the cut rate decision is under the authority of the FED ... FED says there is no cut rate in 2019 ... the job high progress ... the economy grows even though it is moderate ... inflation is around 1.8% to 1.9% and this is now being pursued so can grow to 2.1%, according to the target of 2.0% ... then where there is no concern for the media ... there is nothing to worry about ... only a new policy is needed so that economic growth is so strong and the inflation target can be achieved
I agree specially for inflation
Attached Image
He said a the end labor market is tightened but not very tightened !!
Buy gold is the best
Quoting hesrondopa
the cut rate decision is under the authority of the FED ... FED says there is no cut rate in 2019 ... the job high progress ... the economy grows even though it is moderate ... inflation is around 1.8% to 1.9% and this is now being pursued so can grow to 2.1%, according to the target of 2.0% ... then where there is no concern for the media ... there is nothing to worry about ... only a new policy is needed so that economic growth is so strong and the inflation target can be achieved
Honestly, the market moves because it believes the Fed. Not vis versa.

The best the FED can do is set expectations, and hope that changes market behavior as desired.
no rate cut, now all we have to see is no trade deal us china...
As I have said all along, no rate cut. (insert self-righteous pat on the back here)

But but but the bond market suggested that there will be 2 rate cuts this year. And and and the inversion curve says a recession is imminent.

And as I also stated the bond market isn't as predictive as it once was.

Why? Because the bond market's predictive element is skewed by banks. And as we have seen over and over, banks are wrong. After all, this is the same entity that was bailed out by the billions.

Wow, you mean banks making kajillions of dollars during the last economic boom cycle couldn't position themselves properly to withstand the inevitable economic bust cycle?

No, they couldn't. So why do people look to the bond market as the holy grail for predicting future economic conditions and rate cuts? Because they don't truly understand the game and can only devour the bogus and shallow rhetoric coming from the media. And what self-loathing, US hating entity owns the media? Yup, the lefties. And so the sheep are fed and run around saying bah bah bah, the US is doomed because the bond market and the media said so.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
Quoting hesrondopa
strong for dollar .... we will see buy usd
Let me know how that turned out for you ok?
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
Hidden
Thx.

And even though Powell says no cuts until 2020 here comes lefty news outlet CNBC saying "traders" are "pricing in" a "100% chance" of a July rate cut. Thank you CNBC for proving my point.

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/92...-100-chance-of

Thx CNBC, a nice Aussie spike for me to sell. Cheers.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
this gave a nice retrace for EU GU
"If you run, you'll only die tired." - Sniper's philosophy
I told u about gold oh my god !
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Usd is strong now and euro is weak base on Ecb decisions. So why eurousd still growing?
Quoting Guest
Usd is strong now and euro is weak base on Ecb decisions. So why eurousd still growing?
You could call it stop hunting. It will turn back down once the reality hits again, which is the 2.5% interest rate difference between EUR and USD. In 2010 when we had a similar difference (opposite way), eurusd was around 1.50.
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Thx. And even though Powell says no cuts until 2020 here comes lefty news outlet CNBC saying "traders" are "pricing in" a "100% chance" of a July rate cut. Thank you CNBC for proving my point. https://www.forexfactory.com/news/92...-100-chance-of Thx CNBC, a nice Aussie spike for me to sell. Cheers.
quote=Expo33;12341645]Mundo, shouldn't you be reporting all of this to Twee? Yea, didn't think so.[/quote]

You are right, and maybe I should mind my business, something that doesn't come that easy for me, especially when for several decades all I did was mettle in peoples affairs.

I do not have an issue with you personally, nor are you my enemy. On the contrary, i believe you are smart, passionate, and insightful. For a while now, I have read your posts on various threads, I don't follow many because I choose carefully who have the most to offer. And that is the case with you.

Your posts are full of information and quite frankly spot-on, especially when defending the US. If you read carefully the first post I mentioned a few days back, that is what I was referring to. Your posts carry of lot of power, but in my professional opinion, they lose track because the focus is on those on the other side. Don't get me wrong, I choose no side, but your posts were important to me. You are free to express yourself how you wish, I respect that and I should leave it at that.

I will no longer disrespect you, and since I did, I ask your forgiveness. We involved in Psychology are flawed as well. I was seriously hurt and offended because my mother and uncle died last year, my grandmother a year before...two out of three were democrats. Go figure. Maybe I should have PM you before posting my anger, hindsight maybe, so I will take this as a learning experience.

I choose to call a truce, and hope you continue your informative posts. Either way I truly wish you well.
Invest in Life
I think the global economy will enter the inflationary recession and we will not see any decline in the interest rate
Quoting alshaer
I think the global economy will enter the inflationary recession and we will not see any decline in the interest rate
Please explain inflationary recession......
...because you never know - until you do!
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