-
Is Krugman right?
Paul Krugman has been quoted recently as saying that there is some chance of a global recession late this year or next. There is no widely accessible global recession indicator. But there are such indicators for the US, from which, most of the global business cycle usually starts and ends. One readily available indicator, the NY Fed index, has a recession in 12 months probability running at a 23.62%. That sounds a bit elevated, but not quite ringing alarm bells. That said, this index has almost never risen from a lower level to reach this point, without then going on to register higher probabilities and in due course ... (full story)
- Comments
- Subscribe
- View Comment
- Hidden for breach of Trader Code of Conduct
- ztop
- Comment #2
- Quote
- Feb 28, 2019 12:23am Feb 28, 2019 12:23am
- jeanmk
- | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 113 Comments
- Comment #3
- Quote
- Jun 20, 2019 1:50pm Jun 20, 2019 1:50pm
- ztop
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: canceled | 58 Comments