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  • Brexit: Betting Markets See Near Coin-Flip Odds of a Second Referendum, "Plan B" on Tap

    From forex.com

    Much like a rollercoaster ride, this week’s Brexit developments have been full of twists and turns…but have ultimately taken us right back to where we started the week. PM May’s Brexit deal was roundly rejected on Tuesday, but the Prime Minister subsequently won Wednesday’s no confidence vote. As we head into this weekend, May is once again headed to Brussels to try to forge an agreement that will be acceptable to both the EU and Parliament. The Prime Minister continues to rule out a second referendum on the issue, though betting markets are more open to the idea; according to Bloomberg data, traders now see ... (full story)

"A second referendum" means what exactly? The phrase is open to so many interpretations that its impossible to describe what the proposition is that the 'odds' refer to. And I would have thought that the 2016 referendum's main lesson was never to have another referendum on a very complex issue which few people could or would understand enough to evaluate the options satisfactorily. That is what has led to the tortuous circumstances we are all familiar with now. But as it is a serious option being put forward what are the questions being proposed in this 'second' referendum? It is not at all clear to me that we have a conditional consensus so please enlighten me.

Rebel Tories have no upside in another referendum and you can go through arithmetic on the other No factions to May's deal or a variant of it. And Labour's Corbyn wants to avoid being blamed for No Deal Brexit. Many MPs will now be biased towards a Plan B if it is even slightly better in view of 1. there being no sensible alternative plan (as if) 2. the EXIT at the end of March. 3. Nobody wants to be responsible for No Deal 4. EU does not want No Deal.
the original referendum was the best thing since sliced bread
one of the worst sayings by remainer's is the people are not clever enough to say that want to be a member or not

the other one is when they say grown-ups in the room; like that's it's themselves
these are the people who call for another referendum with no care what that will do
heres the crazy thing ,what makes those people think vote leave won't win again
the absolute classic is the new ref should be Mays deal or remain haha
Quoting Bones
the absolute classic is the new ref should be Mays deal or remain haha
Thats because only an insane person would want a no-deal exit. UK would become 3rd world by the end of this year.
"traders now see the odds of another vote at 42% "

then why not hold the third referendum ?
There will be no plan B - EU will not change the current deal, at least not that far that it will go through parliament. This has been said many times now. I don't know whats so difficult to understand.

Date will also not be postponed, there are EU elections and UK has wasted now 2 years to find some kind of agreement what the country itself wants. 29.03. is the final date. This was Mays fault. Why did she start talks now, it is too late!

For me it looks to 95% that UK will leave the EU on 29.03. without a deal and it is time to face the truth.
I'm insane then,
If mays deal or no deal is the options then this leaves only one answer
I wasted lots of time debating how bad that deal is
Lamplighter actually read it and says it's ok actually
Yet it failed one of the worst defeats ever

Only an insane person would take no deal off the table before you start and there's plenty of those in Parliment


Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Thats because only an insane person would want a no-deal exit. UK would become 3rd world by the end of this year.
EU politicians should make more derogatory and insulting comments about the UK to get them over the line. Unfortunately remain leads is 12 points ahead at the moment so we really need to step up our game.

Help them to help us.
You believe that

Quoting barkie
EU politicians should make more derogatory and insulting comments about the UK to get them over the line. Unfortunately remain leads is 12 points ahead at the moment so we really need to step up our game. Help them to help us.
Quoting Bones
You believe that {quote}
Absolutely Bones, when a radical Brexiteer paper brings this I believe that, sure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...an-defeat.html
Daily Mail – can the new editor keep Brexiters and remainers happy?




Quoting barkie
{quote} Absolutely Bones, when a radical Brexiteer paper brings this I believe that, sure. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...an-defeat.html
That referendum was like, 5AM - wakeup , vote! --- but hey i need coffee... NO! VOTE NOW! .. After referendum is like hey we didnt know what we voted for , we was still sleeping ... BREXITERS --- NO THIS WAS THE ONE AND ONLY ONE REFERENDUM ! PEOPLE VOTED! IT COUNTS !
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Thats because only an insane person would want a no-deal exit. UK would become 3rd world by the end of this year.
What a ridiculous quote.....
2nd referendum, 2nd referendum, 2nd referendum, 2nd referendum,2nd referendum, 2nd referendum............

They are going to repeat it, ad nausium, hoping that it will brain wash people into thinking it's acceptable.

They are trying to make Brexit to be all about immigration, but here is the thing, there are a lot of older generation who remember and still pissed off at the fact that UK was taken into EU by Ted Heath without consulting the people. They aren't going to change their minds. And there are those who are beginning to see EU for what it is: a fiefdom for crtl leftist mofus.
Quoting Bones
I'm insane then, If mays deal or no deal is the options then this leaves only one answer I wasted lots of time debating how bad that deal is Lamplighter actually read it and says it's ok actually Yet it failed one of the worst defeats ever Only an insane person would take no deal off the table before you start and there's plenty of those in Parliment {quote}
It's by design.
Use exhaustion, Brexit fatigue and the sense of futility to knock the vote to a No Brexit. I wouldn't be worried so much about $ deals, but why they are doing this to the people. Enslavement by oligarchs is far worse than a No Deal over the longer term, but that's just my opinion

If May and others really cared about the people, they'd find a way to cut a deal. Just human nature.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.125.41
To outsiders, the way the UK Parliament has been handling this whole process is very impressive.
If these are the people that are Taking Back Control ..? God help Britain.
These public representatives couldn't run a bath.
Quoting stryjek
That referendum was like,... - NO THIS WAS THE ONE AND ONLY ONE REFERENDUM ! PEOPLE VOTED! IT COUNTS !
Yes.

I agree with you!!!!!

The referendum counts, and must be ONLY ONE.!!!!

You mean the 1973 referendum right???? LOL.
THE ONE INTO E.U.
????? Right dumbooooo???

Quoting Bones
the original referendum was the best thing since sliced bread one of the worst sayings by remainer's is the people are not clever enough to say that want to be a member or not the other one is when they say grown-ups in the room; like that's it's themselves these are the people who call for another referendum with no care what that will do
No sir, the worst thing ever is Brexsh!tters being in denial about how stupid and ignorant they are. Which is the whole point of stupidity, actually. Remainers have never really denounced it and this is their greatest fault.
Quoting Breza
"traders now see the odds of another vote at 42% " then why not hold the third referendum ?
There will be 6 refs.

Didn't ya know

Here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...2&d=1547993554
Quoting Bones
heres the crazy thing ,what makes those people think vote leave won't win again
Easy.
Let me explain

Why are LeaverBrexpuppeetiers affraid of second one (actually third after 1973 and fourth including Scottish)????? Why???
Errrr.....


Coz the new one won't be rigged by liars???? Errrr

Don't forget big business is against leave....

Don't forget any Leaver gets diarrhea and vomiting when any honest guy says New Referendum
I'll let you into a secret, that was one of the biggest votes ever,
let's say Mays deal or stay what do you think the turnout will be
would you really think this argument would be over should a ref come into play, the risks are huge
what's scary is how far people will go against democracy to overturn it


A referendum like that is much stronger than an election because actually,
it's very focused,
despite being
leave or remain
it was super detailed on what was known then
in the end everyone has to guess the end result and what was true or false
The NI border wasn't so much the issue because EU made it up as such a big problem after...
but to change it has to be an election....



[quote=Not-KPMG;11904622]{quote} Easy. Let me explain Why are LeaverBrexpuppeetiers affraid of second one (actually third after 1973 and fourth including Scottish)????? Why??? Errrr..... Coz the new one won't be rigged by liars???? Errrr
btw they also made up the divorce bill-----after the REF
which had they been reasonable we would have paid
Democracy is not infallible. Hitler was democratically elected, so was Donald Trump.
Quoting xy76
Democracy is not infallible. Hitler was democratically elected, so was Donald Trump.
Hitler was not democratically elected to become the Reichsfuhrer as he took power with having some 33% of the votes and Trump lost lost the popular vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Thats because only an insane person would want a no-deal exit. UK would become 3rd world by the end of this year.
WTO. Learn it. Live it. Love it. There are already laws in place.
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Hitler was not democratically elected to become the Reichsfuhrer as he took power with having some 33% of the votes and Trump lost lost the popular vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party
Hitler's NSDAP commanded enough political support to get into Reichstag in sufficiently large numbers. The rest was succesful political manoeuvring, well within democratic framework of the time.
Trump won the majority of electors' votes, which is what matters in the USA's democratic system.
Both have been democratically elected. Both have been threats to democracy and freedom.
Brexit is a democratic choice. It does not mean it is right. Vox populi is not necessarily vox Dei. This is why most countries have indirect systems of democracy. Trouble starts when societies and nations, so long rotten to the core, elect representatives who are just as much of a failure as those who vote for them. Welcome to the 2000 - 2010s United Kingdom.
Brexsh!tters love to brag so much about the Empire's past glory: WWI, WWII etc. Honestly, I cannot imagine such a pathetic conduct like that of the current British political class back then, when ALL the major parties backed Churchill's war cabinet.
Perhaps we Brits deserve no better. For years, generations of spoiled idiots with a huge sense of entitlement and no sense of obligation whatsoever have been voting representatives who are exactly like themselves, just more. Our political class is us, only magnified and amplified.
Brexit will screw us in all aspects, yet we cannot even see it is a disaster of our own making.
The problem we have is that the referendum result goes against most of parliament so was always going to be a tough nut to crack!
It's being taken through though by a Prime Minister who's completely ineffective and being opposed by a Labour party who have their worst leader in recent history. Both parties are totally divided! Result, we has chaos.........
I fear we're going to end up with a second referendum which will be even more divisive than the first and could end up with a result that few people will accept.
We need a leader who'll tell the EU where to go and who'll tell their rebel MPs to shut up and toe the line or get out! We need someone to thump desks ......
Quoting Bones
heres the crazy thing ,what makes those people think vote leave won't win again
You make a valid point. But the thing a lot of Brexit fanatics don't take on board is that if there was another referendum and Leave won (fairly and squarely). Nearly all remainers including myself would stop banging on about what a dumb idea it is and accept it for what is is.
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:28am Jan 21, 2019 6:12am | Edited at 6:28am
Quoting theras2000
{quote} You make a valid point. But the thing a lot of Brexit fanatics don't take on board is that if there was another referendum and Leave won (fairly and squarely). Nearly all remainers including myself would stop banging on about what a dumb idea it is and accept it for what is is.
A second referendum would cause more problems than it solves, the turnout was 72% for the referendum in 2016 what if the second one produced a reverse decision on a lower turnout, what would happen then, best of three? You could get some civil unrest, is that what you'd be prepared to risk? And what question would you ask? People calling for another vote cannot even agree on that..............
I'm a leave supporter but David Cameron was stupid to call the referendum, after forty odd years of EU entanglement it'll take a generation to unwind it all. So, on balance, the vote was wrong.

The EU is a bureaucratic undemocratic institution controlled by elite failed politicians on fat salaries and pensions remote from the grass routes, that fail to understand what they're doing
Quoting rover99x
{quote} A second referendum would cause more problems than it solves, the turnout was 72% for the referendum in 2016 what if the second one produced a reverse decision on a lower turnout, what would happen then, best of three? You could get some civil unrest, is that what you'd be prepared to risk? And what question would you ask? People calling for another vote cannot even agree on that..............
"You could get some civil unrest, is that what you'd be prepared to risk?"

First of all democracy is much more important than a few right wing extremists kicking off. Building a few more prisons to house the right wing nutters could help kick start the economy anyway. Lol.

And anyway the way I look at it. If we go ahead and crash out with no deal and if the Bank of England's own forecasts come true and there is a 8% hit to GDP, there will be some civil unrest anyway. There would be some very unhappy newly unemployed working class people who will be pretty p&ssed off they were sold a lemon.
Quoting theras2000
{quote} "You could get some civil unrest, is that what you'd be prepared to risk?" First of all democracy is much more important than a few right wing extremists kicking off. Building a few more prisons to house the right wing nutters could help kick start the economy anyway. Lol. And anyway the way I look at it. If we go ahead and crash out with no deal and if the Bank of England's own forecasts come true and there is a 8% hit to GDP, there will be some civil unrest anyway. There would be some very unhappy newly unemployed working class...
Sorry but I think you've contradicted yourself "First of all democracy is much more important" and you're calling for a second referendum?
I think you mean "Democracy is great provided you agree with me"
The problem with Brexit is that it has become a religious belief system for many. The God of separation versus the God of union. Off the back of these epistemological dead ends, cleaver folk are making mischief. In the arena of finance hedging trades is one answer.
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Sorry but I think you've contradicted yourself "First of all democracy is much more important" and you're calling for a second referendum? I think you mean "Democracy is great provided you agree with me"
"First of all democracy is much more important and you're calling for a second referendum?"
Correct!
Quoting theras2000
{quote} "First of all democracy is much more important and you're calling for a second referendum?" Correct!
What is democratic about having a second referendum? I don't understand, other than keep voting until you get it right.
  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:37am Jan 21, 2019 8:20am | Edited at 8:37am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} What is democratic about having a second referendum? I don't understand, other than keep voting until you get it right.
According to your logic we should not have had the vote in 2016 as that was the 2nd vote we have had to be a member of the EU.

Anyway I am just agreeing with these Brexit fanatics, David Davis, Jacob Rees Mogg and John Redmond who all supported the idea of a 2nd (3rd) referendum. Apparently Farage agrees as well.

Inserted Video

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ferendum-video
in 40 years you can try that would be ok

Quoting theras2000
{quote} According to your logic we should not have had the vote in 2016 as that was the 2nd vote we have had to be a member of the EU. Anyway I am just agreeing with these Brexit fanatics, David Davis, Jacob Rees Mogg and John Redmond who all supported the idea of a 2nd (3rd) referendum. Apparently Farage agrees as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuGd5UImJNE&t=24s https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ferendum-video
sorry, you don't get two chances at a once in lifetime vote that will be implemented.
The whole conversation is weird, I blame the fact that as times gone on the losers feel there's a thread of hope to do what they believe. They must know its all wrong

Quoting theras2000
{quote} You make a valid point. But the thing a lot of Brexit fanatics don't take on board is that if there was another referendum and Leave won (fairly and squarely). Nearly all remainers including myself would stop banging on about what a dumb idea it is and accept it for what is is.
Quoting rover99x
The problem we have is that the referendum result goes against most of parliament so was always going to be a tough nut to crack! It's being taken through though by a Prime Minister who's completely ineffective and being opposed by a Labour party who have their worst leader in recent history. Both parties are totally divided! Result, we has chaos......... I fear we're going to end up with a second referendum which will be even more divisive than the first and could end up with a result that few people will accept. We need a leader who'll tell the...
Excuse me, but would you remind us all please, who elected all those pesky Remainer MPs? Or did they just fly here from another galaxy, only to be parachuted straight into their parliamentary seats?

What does it say about us Brits, that we had voted first to leave the EU, then in the following general election got ourselves the Parliament which supports precisely the opposite? Now what was that about Brexsh!tters supposedly understanding what were they voting for?
Quoting rover99x
{quote} A second referendum would cause more problems than it solves, the turnout was 72% for the referendum in 2016 what if the second one produced a reverse decision on a lower turnout, what would happen then, best of three? You could get some civil unrest, is that what you'd be prepared to risk? And what question would you ask? People calling for another vote cannot even agree on that.............. I'm a leave supporter but David Cameron was stupid to call the referendum, after forty odd years of EU entanglement it'll take a generation to unwind...
"You could get some civil unrest"

If anything like this were to occur I am unfortunately certain there will be civil unrest.
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Yes. I agree with you!!!!! The referendum counts, and must be ONLY ONE.!!!! You mean the 1973 referendum right???? LOL. THE ONE INTO E.U. ????? Right dumbooooo???
There is no doubts , majority wanted to stay in , the rest didnt vote , so the vote is like a lottery ticket . So You wannt to force the other 50% in to Your vote , if you wannt to bring back the borders in between Ireland and UK , the problem will likely resolve it self and escalate to a civil war .
Quoting theras2000
{quote} "You could get some civil unrest" If anything like this were to occur I am unfortunately certain there will be civil unrest.
I do agree, but we are where we are
Quoting xy76
{quote} Excuse me, but would you remind us all please, who elected all those pesky Remainer MPs? Or did they just fly here from another galaxy, only to be parachuted straight into their parliamentary seats? What does it say about us Brits, that we had voted first to leave the EU, then in the following general election got ourselves the Parliament which supports precisely the opposite? Now what was that about Brexsh!tters supposedly understanding what were they voting for?
Yep quite a paradox isn't it. I think you'll find that in referenda voters feel that their vote really counts, supported by the high turnout. But in our parliamentary voting system voters can feel disenfranchised, as if their vote won't make any difference!
I think your reference to 'parachute' is quite apt, as political parties do indeed tend to 'parachute' people into constituencies lol
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Yep quite a paradox isn't it. I think you'll find that in referenda voters feel that their vote really counts, supported by the high turnout. But in our parliamentary voting system voters can feel disenfranchised, as if their vote won't make any difference! I think your reference to 'parachute' is quite apt, as political parties do indeed tend to 'parachute' people into constituencies lol
In other words, those who did not vote, do not count. Just like all those Remainers who ignored the 2016 referendum.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.88.105
As Traders, we have been making good money from this circus for 3 years now, and stand to profit equally from big moves both Crash-Out and ultimate Remain outcomes would deliver. Thats our focus.
But resistance to a second referendum which seems the obvious solution to the current political deadlock has us bamboozeled? and the arguments being made against a BrexRef2 unsustainable.

Bamboozled as to how refusing the right to "Change your Mind" can be deemed undemocratic, in ANY circumstances, when that is the very Point of Democracy is quite bizarre. As a Member (post 36) pointed out ALL the major Leave lobbyists and parliamentarians have acknowledged on the record, the democratic integrity and need for a second "Last Look" referendum. Even Mr Farage who in (2016 Daily Mail Interview May 16) - instancing the exact 50/48% outcome on which Article 50 was triggered.
From our own focus as Traders.. a BrexRef2 would give us excellent GBP volatility ...something that all genuine traders here will welcome.
Quoting Guest
As Traders, we have been making good money from this circus for 3 years now, and stand to profit equally from big moves both Crash-Out and ultimate Remain outcomes would deliver. Thats our focus. But resistance to a second referendum which seems the obvious solution to the current political deadlock has us bamboozeled? and the arguments being made against a BrexRef2 unsustainable. Bamboozled as to how refusing the right to "Change your Mind" can be deemed undemocratic, in ANY circumstances, when that is the very Point of Democracy is quite...
"Bamboozled as to how refusing the right to "Change your Mind" can be deemed undemocratic"

100% agree. Another Con job by the (right wing) media here in UK. The least trusted by some distance in Europe.
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/surve...ted-in-europe/
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  • Posted: Jan 19, 2019 1:48am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 46  /  Views: 6,175