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  • May’s Brexit deal does not mean its time to long the Pound

    From forextime.com

    The past trading day offered one of those rare occasions in financial markets of late where neither trade tensions, emerging market weakness, President Trump, Italy nor prolonged strength in the Dollar was the main subject driving market sentiment. Instead, a familiar theme burst back onto the headline scene with this being Brexit. After several months of protracted negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union, UK Prime Minister Theresa May took the stage and participated in a five-hour cabinet meeting to secure approval for her Brexit deal. It was not a simple event and there is high speculation ... (full story)

Jokers who are short GBP. lol
Or missed the boat wanting cheapies
Occasionally the potential upside of a situation warrants a bit more risk taking around a key event. As currency traders/investors we know this is a dangerous game on any day. There is a lot of opposition to the 'draft agreement' but the opposition itself is not unified and the various gangs have a lot to lose themselves if they bet the wrong way. Assuming that May survives this week its a very bullish case for the GBP which remember remains close to the lows immediately after the Brexit referendum shock result. And IMHO the upside potential is 10 to 20%. Longer term (beyond 6 months) the upside is even greater.

So the immediate risk is that the rebel Tories win a vote of no confidence, all bets are off and its back to the drawing boards where nothing will have changed except the players amid a loss of goodwill. Each group can take something away from this draft agreement moving forward in a mood of improved goodwill. The numbers are already tight and the weight of this new agreement draft itself could be heavy enough.
I short gbpusd. Bad news on brexit will surface again.
Quoting Lamplighter
Jokers who are short GBP. lol
I wouldn't be so confident about going long on GBP. I'm going to look at the political developments today as there's whispers of a vote of no confidence in the PM. Should that happen then I think the GBP will tumble again? I'm going to be glued to the news today and shorting should that happen.

Reminds me of the old adage: A week is a long time in politics. Only, I'd say it's more likely a day now!
Reading the text of the WA I'd be more inclined to go long EUR since they will have the UK over a barrel.

I don't believe this has one chance in a million of making it through parliament either...
Quoting Lamplighter
Jokers who are short GBP. lol
I just thought I’d come back to your post for a big LOL 😂
The way things are going now that GBPJPY dropped 300+ pips. Would there be any retracement expected soon or GBP will keep faliing?
Fairly new trader badly stuck in long positions expecting it to go higher or better to exit ?
Quoting FrenchNick
{quote} I just thought I’d come back to your post for a big LOL 😂
... and now I can complete my line ... ' are in the money!' (Jokers are the wise ones in the court of kings ... lol)
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  • Posted: Nov 14, 2018 6:51pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 9  /  Views: 3,245