EU could adjust Irish border backstop to win Britain's approval in Brexit negotiations - leading EU lawmaker | Forex Factory

  • EU could adjust Irish border backstop to win Britain's approval in Brexit negotiations - leading EU lawmaker

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FX-Syndicate
Sep 4, 2018 12:40pm
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It is funny to see how in countries where you can find plenty of economists with diplomas taken at Harvard, engineers, mathematicians, only morons manage to make it to the politics. It happents all the time.
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FX-Syndicate
Sep 4, 2018 12:32pm — Edited
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Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Next will be Scotland becoming independent and joining EU. No more Great Britain after that.
We live in a globalized world, where everything is interconnected. If no deal will be achieved (most likely), UK will loose it's access to the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms and according to purchasing power parity (PPP). Brexit vote makes me think at a man jumping from an airplane without parachute. On short term there will be heavy repercursions... everything should have been prepared before and not after the Brexit vote. It will be interesting to see what will happen with Vodafone, Bentley, Mini, Airbus division in UK and other factories...
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FX-Syndicate
Sep 4, 2018 12:49pm
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Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} oh wow, is it that easy to split from great britain? but thats good for EU, otherwise people like putin enjoy spliting europe. Europe could be like USA big powerful country. It is interesting how USA states do not split or get out.
Well, looking at the map, the irish island looks like it is split... does not look the same to you? why should be a Northern Ireland and a Republic of Ireland and not just an Ireland, putted simple?
Why this Ireland is split now if it bears the same name? I'm trying to follow the logic.
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jagzuk
Sep 5, 2018 3:12am — Edited
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Great to see so much debate. Less great to see so much ignorance of politics, history and geography.

For those that don't know their geography, Great Britain is the name of an island, the largest island in the British Isles. On that island their are 3 nation states (countries), England, Wales and Scotland. Of course there are many other islands making up the British Isles. Ireland is also an island. On that island are two nation states, Eire (also known as the Republic of Ireland), and Northern Ireland which forms part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. I hope you are getting it now that Great Britain and Ireland are land masses not countries.

The United Kingdom and The Republic of Ireland (RoI) belong to the CTA (Common Travel Area) an agreement that dates back almost a century to the 1923 agreement. This agreement allows free travel of UK citizens to the RoI, and free travel of RoI citizens to the UK. The agreement existing long before the EU was formed and will continue to exist after the UK leaves the EU. RoI citizens will still be able to travel freely to the UK. The 'border' affects where goods and citizens from the rest of the EU will become subject to UK customs and immigration controls.

The UK does not want a hard border with RoI - intrinsically the UK is an advocate of global free trade (not just free trade with the EU members, which is seen by many as EU protectionism)

The RoI does not want a hard border with the UK - a vast proportion on the RoIs trade is with the UK.

Only the EU negotiators want an hard border, because to allow anything else would be a violation of their intransigent dogma. They are unwilling to accept the free movement of goods and services, without conditions such as the free movement of people, and the surrender of national sovereignty.

However, pressure from the sensible minds within the EU27 (who understand the true economic benefit of free trade with the UK) seems to be starting to get through to the negotiation team. Regardless of what the EU negotiators spout about their rules and fundamentalist principles, economists and business leaders know it makes economic sense to reach an EU-UK trade agreement that has minimum impact on trade flows. Annually, the UK imports from the EU are in the region of £341 billion, with exports of about £274 billion. That's a net trade flow of about £67 billion in the favour of the EU. i.e. about $85 to $90 billion USD depending of where you place the exchange rate.

So that's why the wording of the news is important. There is a lot to lose on both sides if no deal is done. Trade will still continue, but prices will go up on both sides and many businesses will be hurt in the process. Whilst the EU negotiators (and some others) might want to punish UK citizens for spoiling their party, the result of this is likely to be no deal, or a deal that the UK electorate will not tolerate (= no deal). Businesses do not want this, so pressure is on the negotiators to stop behaving like spoiled children and start working in the interests of the respective economies.

Take a look at that news again:

"The European Union could offer new guarantees to Britain to win London’s support for a solution aimed at avoiding an Irish border after Brexit, a leading EU lawmaker said"

Previously, EU negotiators have said this is impossible. But EU lawmakers seem to be saying it is not impossible. So, perhaps its only impossible in the minds of the EU negotiators and that is where the problem has lain all along?

The Reuters text on the news is here:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1LK25E
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jagzuk
Sep 5, 2018 8:04am
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Quoting Guest
Can someone explain how.. 1. You can have a hard economic border without checks and controls? A smugglers charter. 2. Freedom of movement across the NI/RoI border applies currently to ALL EU citizens. After Brexit it will ONLY apply to UK and RoI citizens. How can Non-UK/RoI immigration in such circumstances be controlled without hard checks and controls on a 300 mile border? 3. How the UK government can honor the GFA, ... the International treaty/Agreement (UK/RoI, the Multi-Party Agreement and the three strands specifically relating to sovereignty,...
One more point is that the RoI (like the UK) is outside of the Schengen Area. Therefore, travel into RoI from an EU (or any other country) is already subject to immigration checks.
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Ibar51
Sep 5, 2018 7:17am
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Quoting boxerr
{quote} Incorrect, learn your history.
I think you should learn your history. They were mainly Scottish loyal to the crown who were given land that belonged to the native Irish people same as they did in most all of the countries that they invaded.
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The Doji
Sep 5, 2018 6:09am
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Quoting jagzuk
Great to see so much debate. Less great to see so much ignorance of politics, history and geography. For those that don't know their geography, Great Britain is the name of an island, the largest island in the British Isles. On that island their are 3 nation states (countries), England, Wales and Scotland. Of course there are many other islands making up the British Isles. Ireland is also an island. On that island are two nation states, Eire (also known as the Republic of Ireland), and Northern Ireland which forms part of the United Kingdom of Great...
Well said jagzuk - written with good sense and coherence.
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FX-Syndicate
Sep 4, 2018 2:13pm
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Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} yea, map looks weird, but who knows how there it is historycally. Maybe there was different people living behind this border
Yeah, some sort of Russian separatists like we see now in Georgia (South Ossetia and Abhazia), Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk) and Moldavia (Transnistria).
Different language, same democratic habits.
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Lamplighter
Sep 5, 2018 2:23pm
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... there might be some that will see the RoI wanting to join the UK post Brexit ... same logic applies - favoured trading nation, shared customs union etc etc. Could make better sense than remaining a part of the EU.
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TraderTero
Sep 4, 2018 12:55pm
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
It is funny to see how in countries where you can find plenty of economists with diplomas taken at Harvard, engineers, mathematicians, only morons manage to make it to the politics. It happents all the time.
And those morons in power believe that they know things much better than the experts who have spent years in researching and studying the issues. Sad.
SPeedFANat1c
Sep 4, 2018 12:32pm
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
This means the border will be moved on the sea only. Northern part of Ireland will join to Ireland, Catholics will form a party within the Irish Government and will be given autonomy to rule their land, and the entire Irish island will become part of the EU.
oh wow, is it that easy to split from great britain? but thats good for EU, otherwise people like putin enjoy spliting europe. Europe could be like USA big powerful country. It is interesting how USA states do not split or get out.
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SPeedFANat1c
Sep 4, 2018 12:53pm
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
{quote} Well, looking at the map, the irish island looks like it is split... does not look the same to you? why should be a Northern Ireland and a Republic of Ireland and not just an Ireland, putted simple? Why this Ireland is split now if it bears the same name? I'm trying to follow the logic.
yea, map looks weird, but who knows how there it is historycally. Maybe there was different people living behind this border
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TraderTero
Sep 4, 2018 12:17pm
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
This means the border will be moved on the sea only. Northern part of Ireland will join to Ireland and the entire Irish island will become part of the EU
Next will be Scotland becoming independent and joining EU. No more Great Britain after that.
Not-KPMG
Sep 4, 2018 1:16pm
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Don't trust these...news
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Ibar51
Sep 4, 2018 6:38pm
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Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} yea, map looks weird, but who knows how there it is historycally. Maybe there was different people living behind this border
There was until the British drove them from their land and replaced them with British settlers.
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boxerr
Sep 5, 2018 3:15pm
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Quoting Ibar51
{quote} I think you should learn your history. They were mainly Scottish loyal to the crown who were given land that belonged to the native Irish people same as they did in most all of the countries that they invaded.
Yes, like NZ.
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FX-Syndicate
Sep 4, 2018 12:10pm — Edited
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This means the border will be moved on the sea only. Northern part of Ireland will join to Ireland, Catholics will form a party within the Irish Government and will be given autonomy to rule their land, and the entire Irish island will become part of the EU.
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lasty
Sep 4, 2018 9:26pm
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May has already said the Irish border movement is not an option.
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Ibar51
Sep 5, 2018 4:24pm
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Quoting boxerr
{quote} Yes, like NZ.
Correct
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SPeedFANat1c
Sep 5, 2018 12:59am
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
{quote} Yeah, some sort of Russian separatists like we see now in Georgia (South Ossetia and Abhazia), Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk) and Moldavia (Transnistria). Different language, same democratic habits.
Weird with Ukraine. As I understand in east ukraine there are lot of russians, but how they got there? Did ukraine occupied part of russia or russians got into east ukraine and now want to split the country? I was very interested in ukraine, but did not hear any fact that east part of ukraine belonged to russia. I think its just stealing land fron poor ukrainians with useful minerals and using russians as an excuse to attack.
And I think if those russians do not like living in ukraine, they should move to russia instead of stealing land from ukraine. Especially tha russia has big land and there is room for eveyrone.
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XuMar
Sep 4, 2018 11:49am
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thanks broo.... you save my all positions LOL
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boxerr
Sep 5, 2018 1:58am
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Quoting Ibar51
{quote} There was until the British drove them from their land and replaced them with British settlers.
Incorrect, learn your history.
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SPeedFANat1c
Sep 4, 2018 11:49am
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so what does that mean? why GBPUSD is rising so much?
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Trader#F3FD
Sep 4, 2018 12:14pm
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Quoting FX-Syndicate
This means the border will be moved on the sea only. Northern part of Ireland will join to Ireland and the entire Irish island will become part of the EU
I am sure if that could be accepted by the UK.
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Goldorak06
Sep 4, 2018 1:18pm
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so you can move the border as you like , no matter the people , what are thinking the Irish people in or out ?...
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Goldorak06
Sep 4, 2018 1:21pm
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I won't rust any news if it does not comes from May or Barnier ...
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Trader#3444
Sep 5, 2018 7:11am
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Can someone explain how..
1. You can have a hard economic border without checks and controls? A smugglers charter.
2. Freedom of movement across the NI/RoI border applies currently to ALL EU citizens.
After Brexit it will ONLY apply to UK and RoI citizens.
How can Non-UK/RoI immigration in such circumstances be controlled without hard checks and controls on a 300 mile border?
3. How the UK government can honor the GFA, ... the International treaty/Agreement (UK/RoI, the Multi-Party Agreement and the three strands specifically relating to sovereignty, civil and cultural rights, decommissioning of weapons, demilitarization, justice, and policing that specifically guarantee a friction-less/non controlled border.

Is there a way? Anyone?
If not then stay short GBP.
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Trader#3444
Sep 6, 2018 6:33am
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Quoting Lamplighter
... there might be some that will see the RoI wanting to join the UK post Brexit ... same logic applies - favoured trading nation, shared customs union etc etc. Could make better sense than remaining a part of the EU.
Unlikely...Irish economy grew by 7.3 % last year, three times faster than the wider euro area, The surge, driven by the activities of multinational companies operating there, makes the Republic the fastest-growing country in the EU. However stripping out multinationals, underlying domestic activity grew by 4.9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2017 - still double that of the euro area. GDP per capita is est $75000, while for UK its est $44000 2017. The EU works for RoIreland.
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Trader#5267
Sep 4, 2018 12:02pm
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Let's wait for reaction from Northern Ireland once more details are known
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