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  • Brexit is knocking out British industry, and it may not bounce back

    From scmp.com

    Britain is bearing the scars of a car-crash economy as the political crisis deepens over Europe. More firms are voting with their feet in a desperate attempt to avoid the likely chaos when the country finally quits the European Union. If the corporate exodus from the UK turns into a stampede, Britain’s industrial prosperity could be ruined forever. Britain is heading into the unknown. By now, the government should have had a much clearer idea about what impact Brexit would have on the economy, but politicians seem increasingly baffled about what the consequences will be for UK manufacturing, services and its ... (full story)

It's the EU laws skewed in Germanys favour that have destroyed our industry. Being a member of this super state has turned into an ever growing cancer for us. The sooner we leave the better then they can fight among them selves while we re-build
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.125.41
Hmmm.. Living/trading outside UK like 90% of other FF visitors and members, I didnt know EU laws, were skewed in Germanys favour or that that was the reason for paralysed UK productivity and industry destruction.
With respect, it seems a big claim to make without significant justification in last 10 years, and doesnt seem to fit with the general consensus/view in the Market by most investors and traders like ourselves.
Can you fill out your conclusion/advice with some analysis? Need to know this stuff.
The fact that things are chaotic right now is hardly surprising, especially when taking into consideration the concerted efforts of many in the establishment to hinder and derail the process. Rather than working together for an eventual beneficial outcome, there are many that still seek to prevent Brexit in all but name, and shackle us to the very thing we are seeking separation from.

The sad thing about it all is that they can not see the damage they cause, how much they weaken the PM's negotiating hand, how much advantage they give away to the EU, and how it is they, blinkered by their erroneous assumptions of 'knowing better' than the hoi-polloi, that will have caused the bulk of the uncertainty that large industry grapples with at the moment.

OR Even worse. They know exactly what they are doing and are prepared to drag the country down to 'prove they were right!' and everyone who disagreed with their position must be wrong/an idiot.

Had their's been an acceptance of the referendum result, and a unified approach to getting this done, there wouldn't be the levels of uncertainty we now experience after what is clearly a sustained effort to reverse/overturn the decision.
Quoting nbfx
The fact that things are chaotic right now is hardly surprising, especially when taking into consideration the concerted efforts of many in the establishment to hinder and derail the process. Rather tha...
WRONG Proposition

This is the nature of a decision like Brexit. It is naive to say, 'it all would be sooo wonderful, if the other argument/party wasn't there'. It will always be there and a decision had to be made with that in mind. That's why the decision was not light and everyone had to know, the way through Brexit and the future afterwards will be controversal. The person who expected and believed in the wonders that were told is just meeting reality. Everyone else knew it will be a mess, by all due respect.

@nbfx There will be no exceptance of any referendum, that was close to 50%, that would be foolish to believe, especially if the voters were influenced with false proclamations and CambridgeAnalytica psycho tricks etc.

Most probably this decision will haunt the country for years to come.
Buy why FTSE 100 is soo high???
We had two World Wars and collateral damage, the nation rebuilt and prospered. This is just a media frenzy mud slinging paperwork exercise and we will get over it on the 29 March 2019.
Quoting nbfx
OR Even worse. They know exactly what they are doing and...
There are those whose vision was an assimilation of the UK into Europe. Those people are still trying to lock-in their position in the hope of achieving their original ambitions. Tony Blair is one such activist.
Quoting Harry1001
{quote} WRONG Proposition This is the nature of a decision like Brexit. It is naive to say, 'it all would be sooo wonderful, if the other argument/party wasn't there'. It will always be there and a decision had to be made with that in mind. That's why the decision was not light and everyone had to know, the way through Brexit and the future afterwards will be controversal. The person who expected and believed in the wonders that were told is just meeting reality. Everyone else knew it will be a mess, by all due respect. @nbfx There will be no exceptance...
Most on the Brexit side of the argument, did not believe that Brexit was going to be easy or simple. Most on this side of the argument, were not voting on economic terms but for a return of UK democracy, sovereignty of UK parliament, supremacy of UK law, control of UK borders & rejection of EU.

The Remain side of the argument and in particular the government failed to lay out the true cost of EU membership yet spent over £9m on the well documented "project fear"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Guest
Hmmm.. Living/trading outside UK like 90% of other FF visitors and members, I didnt know EU laws, were skewed in Germanys favour or that that was the reason for paralysed UK productivity and industry destruction. With respect, it seems a big claim to make without significant justification in last 10 years, and doesnt seem to fit with the general consensus/view in the Market by most investors and traders like ourselves. Can you fill out your conclusion/advice with some analysis? Need to know this stuff.
Germany has the worlds largest current account surplus. One of the reasons is due to the fact that the (shadow) Deutsche mark is undervalued making it difficult for other countries to compete. They have been called out for currency manipulation now for awhile. Entering the euro was great business for Germany.

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...-manipulation/

https://www.marketplace.org/2017/02/...cy-manipulator
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} Most on the Brexit side of the argument, did not believe that Brexit was going to be easy or simple. Most on this side of the argument, were not voting on economic terms but for a return of UK democracy, sovereignty of UK parliament, supremacy of UK law, control of UK borders & rejection of EU. The Remain side of the argument and in particular the government failed to lay out the true cost of EU membership yet spent over £9m on the well documented "project fear" {image}
"This side of the argument" - as if it is a BINARY issue.

You still don't understand what Parliamentary sovereignty is. e.g. Parliament is OK as long as it doesn't include those pesky interfering Lords.

Forget project fear, this is project reality and smell coffee time!

Is that the same Maddox who 'writes' for the Daily Express (sound of barrel being scraped!)

Rees Mogg does not love you, he's filling his own bags, thanks.
Quoting UnBearybull
{quote} "This side of the argument" - as if it is a BINARY issue. You still don't understand what Parliamentary sovereignty is. e.g. Parliament is OK as long as it doesn't include those pesky interfering Lords. Forget project fear, this is project reality and smell coffee time! Is that the same Maddox who 'writes' for the Daily Express (sound of barrel being scraped!) Rees Mogg does not love you, he's filling his own bags, thanks.
If the UK parliament cannot reject any or all laws, legislation and diktats coming from the EU, it is not sovereign.

The Lords is indeed undemocratic, but their recent actions have highlighted this fact and there is a debate this month on the future of the Lords.

Some peers who voted to keep Britain inside the single market are sitting on EU pension pots worth £5.7million, Lord Mandelson who will receive more than £35,000 a year, Lord Kinnock, the former Labour leader who was a European Commissioner for nine years rising to be Commission vice president, has a £1.65million pension pot worth £89,400 a year. His wife, Baroness Kinnock, who spent 15 years in the European Parliament, has a pension pot of £358,000. Lord Patten, an EU commissioner for four years, has a pension pot worth £749,000, paying him just over £40,000 each year, as well as many others, yet none saw fit to decalre their confictson interest

If you can counter the facts I provided with your own empirical data or facts, I'll be happy to debate them, but your opinion does not count as fact.

As to your comments re JRM, please provide evidence that his stand on Brexit is a case of "he's filling his own bags". When I say evidence, only hard facts will do
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.125.41
Quoting copi88
{quote} Germany has the worlds largest current account surplus. One of the reasons is due to the fact that the (shadow) Deutsche mark is undervalued making it difficult for other countries to compete. They have been called out for currency manipulation now for awhile. Entering the euro was great business for Germany. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...-manipulation/ https://www.marketplace.org/2017/02/...cy-manipulator
Perhaps it might be more reasonable to look at Germany's CAS in the context of its GDP?
Then we see that it is not dissimilar to Netherlands Switzerland, S Korea and Norway?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...centage_of_GDP
Quoting bablugablu
Hidden
They also sold drugs to the Chinese, a fact which was highly objectionable to the Chinese.
When the Chinese lost the ensuing war the Brits also stole Hong Kong from them.

Quoting bablugablu
Hidden

The Egyptians, Phoenicians, Greeks and Romans all built colonies. There were also the Portuguese, Spanish, French, Dutch, British, German, Danish, Swedish, Russian, Ottoman, Austrian, Japanese and Islamic Colonisations/Empires
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} Most on the Brexit side of the argument, did not believe that Brexit was going to be easy or simple. Most on this side of the argument, were not voting on economic terms but for a return of UK democracy, sovereignty of UK parliament, supremacy of UK law, control of UK borders & rejection of EU. The Remain side of the argument and in particular the government failed to lay out the true cost of EU membership yet spent over £9m on the well documented "project fear" {image}
For the majority, it was always about closing the borders to Johnny Foreigner.

I'm willing to bet none of them can tell me what EU laws are blighting their everyday lives.
Quoting digit1288
{quote} For the majority, it was always about closing the borders to Johnny Foreigner. I'm willing to bet none of them can tell me what EU laws are blighting their everyday lives.
Whichever law it is that stops us chucking out the non-British terrorist agitators!
Quoting Exodus
Hidden
Yes and Maggie sorted out the unions, so we were not left (Left!) with the situation they constantly suffer from in Europe, especially of course, in France, as Macron shall find out.
Quoting digit1288
{quote} For the majority, it was always about closing the borders to Johnny Foreigner. I'm willing to bet none of them can tell me what EU laws are blighting their everyday lives.
Most wanted controlled immigration, not a ban on immigration

Under the EAW, British citizens are denied the right of habeas corpus

The unelected, unaccountable and undemocratic EU Government (also known as the EU Commission or EU Executive) has the sole and exclusive right to bring forward proposals for EU laws. The EU Commission a legislative machine for the continual production of EU laws. Only unelected EU commissioners have the exclusive right to propose EU laws.
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Whichever law it is that stops us chucking out the non-British terrorist agitators!
Is this because we are in the EU?? Or is this the result of our own inept government?
Quoting Exodus
{quote} They also sold drugs to the Chinese, a fact which was highly objectionable to the Chinese. When the Chinese lost the ensuing war the Brits also stole Hong Kong from them.
Actually, we leased Hong Kong and gave it back at the end of the lease. Sad, however perfectly legal and reasonable.
Quoting digit1288
{quote} Is this because we are in the EU?? Or is this the result of our own inept government?
UK can’t bar anyone in possession of an EU passport or identity card unless they represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to our security. Even if that high threshold is met, the UK has to disclose the reasons to the individual barred, even if that itself could endanger national security. We can’t even bar people from coming in, solely because they have a criminal record, an unexplained trip to Syria, even for murder.
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} UK can’t bar anyone in possession of an EU passport or identity card unless they represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to our security. Even if that high threshold is met, the UK has to disclose the reasons to the individual barred, even if that itself could endanger national security. We can’t even bar people from coming in, solely because they have a criminal record, an unexplained trip to Syria, even for murder.
Exactly,it is not as though we have Australia, like the old days. Shame we could not send them to France, it would be quick, cheap and nice to give the French something.
Quoting Guest
Hmmm.. Living/trading outside UK like 90% of other FF visitors and members, I didnt know EU laws, were skewed in Germanys favour or that that was the reason for paralysed UK productivity and industry destruction. With respect, it seems a big claim to make without significant justification in last 10 years, and doesnt seem to fit with the general consensus/view in the Market by most investors and traders like ourselves. Can you fill out your conclusion/advice with some analysis? Need to know this stuff.
This is just one example from the area where I live. I am sure there are hundreds of others think vacuum cleaners, light bulbs etc.

Inserted Video
And yes Exodus, the unions started the destruction of some of our bigger industries, but who gave these little men such power. Think outside the box and 50 year plans
Quoting Ghostship
And yes Exodus, the unions started the destruction of some of our bigger industries, but who gave these little men such power. Think outside the box and 50 year plans
Socialist Labour did back then, and Corbyn's Socialist Labour would do so again
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} Socialist Labour did back then, and Corbyn's Socialist Labour would do so again
Agreed but it's all by design having this two party system at loggerheads while the same puppeteers control the show in the shadows
Quoting Wayne2401
{quote} Actually, we leased Hong Kong and gave it back at the end of the lease. Sad, however perfectly legal and reasonable.
Wayne, Hong Kong was leased? To proclaim that is just shameful, in context it cannot be futher from the truth! Cannons were fired, Hong Kong was occupied and China was defeated, that is not particularly a legal situation. Stop spreading false info.

PS: I remember you from 6-9 month ago, and you are still here, saying anything to win your point.
no way great britain will not get harmed if there is no trade deal - but same is true for germany.
btw thanks for the label "made in germany"
Quoting Wayne2401
{quote} Yes and Maggie sorted out the unions, so we were not left (Left!) with the situation they constantly suffer from in Europe, especially of course, in France, as Macron shall find out.
I imagine your "Thatcher...sorted out" is an obvious euphemism for "Fkkking totally and unconscionably destroyed." Like she did with UK industry.
Our oil industry should have stayed state owned. Norway has around £500 billion put away for their citizens pensions from oil receipts whereas we have zilch. Was this another EU /banking elite interference?
Quoting Ghostship
{quote} This is just one example from the area where I live. I am sure there are hundreds of others think vacuum cleaners, light bulbs etc. https://youtu.be/CkRJ18jPXr4
Watched the video. So a British company made a crappy chair to weigh someone, the Germans made a better one and the Brits (as usual) lost their business.

And now you're upset with the EU, because we didn't protect your inferior chair maker. BOO HOO !
Quoting UnBearybull
{quote} I imagine your "Thatcher...sorted out" is an obvious euphemism for "Fkkking totally and unconscionably destroyed." Like she did with UK industry.
The UK became the "sick man of Europe" whilst Socialist Labour and the Unions ran the country. It only recovered when Thatcher pulled power from the Unions
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Quoting UnBearybull
{quote} I imagine your "Thatcher...sorted out" is an obvious euphemism for "Fkkking totally and unconscionably destroyed." Like she did with UK industry.
I well remember, experiencing power cuts every day, due to Scargill s union and his secret ballots,with the miners holding the whole country to ransom, whilst others suffered as a consequence of their actions, also bodies literally not being buried because of strikes. That is not the union ruined country, preying on the majority I wish for again for Britain. We were known as the sick man of Europe until Maggie Thatcher brought order and prosperity. Perhaps you do not remember, are unaware of the facts or did not experience it first hand?
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} The UK became the "sick man of Europe" whilst Socialist Labour and the Unions ran the country. It only recovered when Thatcher pulled power from the Unions {image}
Exactly Dev, what i have been attempting to explain to BearyBull
Quoting Harry1001
{quote} Wayne, Hong Kong was leased? To proclaim that is just shameful, in context it cannot be futher from the truth! Cannons were fired, Hong Kong was occupied and China was defeated, that is not particularly a legal situation. Stop spreading false info. PS: I remember you from 6-9 month ago, and you are still here, saying anything to win your point.
China made cessions to Russia, Germany and France in the same year, the extension of Hong Kong took the form of a 99-year lease, with Britain.We held it for 99 years, then gave it back, as per our legitimate agreement, peacefully and legally. The lease was granted without any cannon fire, that is a fact, that I am happy to repeat, for this argument.
PS- I say. what I believe. I am sorry should that disappoint you, Harry.
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} UK can’t bar anyone in possession of an EU passport or identity card unless they represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to our security. Even if that high threshold is met, the UK has to disclose the reasons to the individual barred, even if that itself could endanger national security. We can’t even bar people from coming in, solely because they have a criminal record, an unexplained trip to Syria, even for murder.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but AFAIK we couldn't deport Abu Hamza .. who was/is an Egyptian
Quoting barkie
{quote} Watched the video. So a British company made a crappy chair to weigh someone, the Germans made a better one and the Brits (as usual) lost their business. And now you're upset with the EU, because we didn't protect your inferior chair maker. BOO HOO !
Listen to it properly next time
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Correct me if I'm wrong, but AFAIK we couldn't deport Abu Hamza .. who was/is an Egyptian
We dropped our charges against him sadly. Then we extradited him to the US, they locked him up.
Quoting Ghostship
Our oil industry should have stayed state owned. Norway has around £500 billion put away for their citizens pensions from oil receipts whereas we have zilch. Was this another EU /banking elite interference?
The thinking from the mid-70s was that whoever won the election was in for the long haul because the oil revenues would fund social spending. That and Michael Foot insisted that he would not fight back if somebody launched nukes at the UK.
Quoting Wayne2401
{quote} China made cessions to Russia, Germany and France in the same year, the extension of Hong Kong took the form of a 99-year lease, with Britain.We held it for 99 years, then gave it back, as per our legitimate agreement, peacefully and legally. The lease was granted without any cannon fire, that is a fact, that I am happy to repeat, for this argument. PS- I say. what I believe. I am sorry should that disappoint you, Harry.
The islands of Hong Kong and Kowloon were 'taken' in 1839, the New Territories were leased as part of a face-saving accession to the Chinese government. The British 'gave it all back' in 1997 when the lease expired. There is however little restriction on travel to Hong Kong by British passport holders, whereas to get into 'China' you need a pre-approved visa.
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Correct me if I'm wrong, but AFAIK we couldn't deport Abu Hamza .. who was/is an Egyptian
Apparently, the ECHR believe that a hate preacher's umane rights are more important than the citizens of the country he hates
Which companies have troubles with brexit ?
Quoting Genimi
Which companies have troubles with brexit ?
None of them .. its a pack of lies
Having just come back from London, no financial professional I spoke to wants to move to Europe .

The talent will be staying put.

The EU will have a problem filling financial roles
As soon as you read the word "forever", in the context of industrial/national prosperity,( or lack thereof), you know you are not reading something to be taken seriously.
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} The UK became the "sick man of Europe" whilst Socialist Labour and the Unions ran the country. It only recovered when Thatcher pulled power from the Unions {image}
In the 70s UK joined ECC, because your country was not competitive and was already the sick man of Europe.
Quoting c0ldsun
{quote} In the 70s UK joined ECC, because your country was not competitive and was already the sick man of Europe.
That is what I said
Quoting Genimi
Which companies have troubles with brexit ?
The EC is going to become protectionist about importing UK products, so there will be headwinds for some manufacturers. Those financial companies domiciled in the UK and without regional representation in the EU will experience headwinds. It is a bit like the trade war that some say president Trump seems to be trying to start.

It will take about 10 years for the EU to grow its own financial services sector. In the mean time there will be some who commute into Frankfurt or wherever on a weekly basis. Since most of the French seem to hate the British I can't see Paris rising as a financial centre. After at least 3 decades of Europeans subscribing to English being the language of business, especially the Poles and some Baltic states, I don't see that changing. Particularly since English is also the language of navigation for all international shipping and air traffic.

So the nett effect? There will be friction for a while and then things will settle down.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.125.41
Useful News pick FFNews. Thks
Overview of what the world (in this case China) is thinking.
Good analysis read for us 95% of traders who visit this site from outside the UK..
FYI


Inserted Video
Quoting Wayne2401
{quote} China made cessions to Russia, Germany and France in the same year, the extension of Hong Kong took the form of a 99-year lease, with Britain.We held it for 99 years, then gave it back, as per our legitimate agreement, peacefully and legally. The lease was granted without any cannon fire, that is a fact, that I am happy to repeat, for this argument. PS- I say. what I believe. I am sorry should that disappoint you, Harry.
Wayne, your ALTERNATIVE FACTS stink. Stating your opinion as it was (historic) facts, is shameful. This is not a 'free speech' issue and what you believe, this is history.

A contract under duress (after stationing your overpowering military force there and having bombed Chinas military into defeat while occupying the island of Hong Kong) is not exactly a basic assumption for a fine legal lease.

For anyone, who wants to know more about REALITY Hong Kong - British Empire history.
https://www.thoughtco.com/china-leas...britain-195153
Quoting Ghostship
FYI https://youtu.be/qxBVxhFehKs
and the UN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Unbelievable Dev whats in that column. The following is now the result at street level


Inserted Video
Quoting Harry1001
{quote} Wayne, your ALTERNATIVE FACTS stink. Stating your opinion as it was (historic) facts, is shameful. This is not a 'free speech' issue and what you believe, this is history. A contract under duress (after stationing your overpowering military force there and having bombed Chinas military into defeat while occupying the island of Hong Kong) is not exactly a basic assumption for a fine legal lease. For anyone, who wants to know more about REALITY Hong Kong - British Empire history. https://www.thoughtco.com/china-leas...britain-195153...
It would seem the Chinese did their own fair share of imperialistic colonisation.

The ancient Han Dynasty (202 BC-220 AD) established control over northern Vietnam, northern Korea, and the Tarim Basin of Central Asia. The short-lived Sui Dynasty (581–618 AD) reinvaded Annam (northern Vietnam) and attacked Champa (southern Vietnam), while they also attempted to conquer Korea, which failed (see Goguryeo-Sui Wars). The later Tang Dynasty (618–907) aided the Korean Silla Kingdom in defeating their two Korean rivals. The Tang Dynasty established control over the Tarim Basin region as well, fighting wars with the new Tibetan Empire and stripping them of their colonies in Central Asia (which was abandoned after the An Lushan Rebellion). The Song Dynasty (960–1279), in securing maritime trade routes that ran from South East Asia into the Indian Ocean. The Mongol-led Yuan Dynasty (1279–1368) made attempts to invade Japan after securing the Korean peninsula through the vassaldom of the Korean Goryeo dynasty. The Qing government of China attempted to exert direct control of its frontier areas by conquest. Ming dynasty loyalists from China invaded Taiwan and expelled Dutch colonialists from the island during the Siege of Fort Zeelandia and founded the Chinese Kingdom of Tungning.
Quoting Harry1001
{quote} Wayne, your ALTERNATIVE FACTS stink. Stating your opinion as it was (historic) facts, is shameful. This is not a 'free speech' issue and what you believe, this is history. A contract under duress (after stationing your overpowering military force there and having bombed Chinas military into defeat while occupying the island of Hong Kong) is not exactly a basic assumption for a fine legal lease. For anyone, who wants to know more about REALITY Hong Kong - British Empire history. https://www.thoughtco.com/china-leas...britain-195153...
When I stated, we had a legitimate lease, you stated cannons were fired, I said that was not the case when we signed the lease, now, I note you have changed your stance on that. The facts do not change just because they are not to your liking.
You talk as though China never invaded anyone. How do you think China was formed in the first place? Pacifist China ? Talk to the peoples of -Korea , Vietnam, Mongolia, Taiwan , Burma, Nepal et al. I bet Tibet would have welcomed a peaceful lease agreement.
Have a read of Dev s excellent post, perhaps you may understand the history better.
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} It would seem the Chinese did their own fair share of imperialistic colonisation. The ancient Han Dynasty (202 BC-220 AD) established control over northern Vietnam, northern Korea, and the Tarim Basin of Central Asia. The short-lived Sui Dynasty (581–618 AD) reinvaded Annam (northern Vietnam) and attacked Champa (southern Vietnam), while they also attempted to conquer Korea, which failed (see Goguryeo-Sui Wars). The later Tang Dynasty (618–907) aided the Korean Silla Kingdom in defeating their two Korean rivals. The Tang Dynasty established...
Excellent Dev, Excellent
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.30.225
"industry" includes finance, more specifically forex, sorry

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/reut...rexit--ft.html
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.42.117
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: May 14, 2018 4:33am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 59  /  Views: 9,918