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Saunders: The Outlook for Jobs and Pay
I want to make four main points in this speech. First, in my view, the labour market currently seems likely to tighten more this year than the external consensus expects, with further declines in unemployment and under-employment. Second, recent data support the view that the equilibrium jobless rate is lower than it used to be. Even so, the elevated level of labour shortages across a wide range of industries suggests there is no longer significant labour market slack. Third, the tightening labour market and rising recruitment difficulties probably will lift pay growth this year a bit above the recent subdued trends. ... (full story)