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  • Draghi says recent euro Volatility source of uncertainty

    DRAGHI SAYS RECENT EURO VOLATILITY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 7, 2017
Added at 8:36am
  • ECB's Draghi: Broadly unchanged outlook for growth and inflation.

    — Trading Floor Audio (@TradeFloorAudio) September 7, 2017
Added at 8:37am
  • #ECB DRAGHI SAYS VERY SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF ACCOMMODATION IS NEEDED - BBG

    — Christophe Barraud (@C_Barraud) September 7, 2017
Added at 8:37am
  • DRAGHI: UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 7, 2017
Added at 8:39am
  • ECB's Draghi: ECB to decide on policy calibration in fall.

    — DailyFX Team Live (@DailyFXTeam) September 7, 2017
  • Comments
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  • Comment #1
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:36am Sep 7, 2017 8:36am
  •  NewtonsCash
  • Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 2580 Comments
Buy Gold
 
 
  • Comment #2
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:40am Sep 7, 2017 8:40am
  •  shimmering
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Apr 2011 | 45 Comments
Euro will go down
 
 
  • Comment #3
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:40am Sep 7, 2017 8:40am
  •  meyti60
  • | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Member | 2 Comments
eurusd buy?????
 
 
  • Comment #4
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:44am Sep 7, 2017 8:44am
  •  JakubSzalaFX
  • Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Member | 633 Comments
Very dovish statement.
 
1
  • Comment #5
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:46am Sep 7, 2017 8:46am
  •  ray4087
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Aug 2017 | 53 Comments
Sell all Euro Pairs
 
1
  • Comment #6
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:46am Sep 7, 2017 8:46am
  •  Indrek
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 181 Comments
Sooner or later market understands that Draghi's talk is just warm air, a verbal bullshit. Looking for Euro sell very soon.
 
 
  • Comment #7
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:49am Sep 7, 2017 8:49am
  •  NewtonsCash
  • Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 2580 Comments
Keep on printing Mario , Golds keeping score
 
1
  • Comment #8
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:50am Sep 7, 2017 8:50am
  •  Raddy23
  • | Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 44 Comments
Don't get the irrational response to this news sending the Euro up.
 
 
  • Comment #9
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:51am Sep 7, 2017 8:51am
  •  oluwagbenga
  • Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 55 Comments
euro is at the top of a palm tree ready to fall flat
 
 
  • Comment #10
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:51am Sep 7, 2017 8:51am
  •  Obaforex
  • | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: Member | 7 Comments
well, i guess it pays not to understand all this financial market rubbish term because technically am long this pair and right now my account as been doubled.
 
1
  • Comment #11
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:52am Sep 7, 2017 8:52am
  •  Indrek
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 181 Comments
Draghi has always followed German interests. Germany is the only country in Europe that wins from strong Euro. Who cares about others...
 
 
  • Comment #12
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:55am Sep 7, 2017 8:55am
  •  jurek
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Member | 69 Comments
Quoting JakubSzalaFX
Disliked
Very dovish statement.
Ignored
So what with Your 1.22-1.23 target for today? U think is still valid?
 
 
  • Comment #13
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:56am Sep 7, 2017 8:56am
  •  arash66110
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Member | 200 Comments
he work with manipulators to take down all sellers
 
 
  • Comment #14
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:56am Sep 7, 2017 8:56am
  •  imbonitore
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Member | 186 Comments
Dragy says nonsense. It's not clear to me that the last 3 conferences all believe in this nonsense.
 
1
  • Comment #15
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:57am Sep 7, 2017 8:57am
  •  fxx360
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 875 Comments
I haven't heard anything bullish but the market seems to have it mind made up against the USD....

''Pure speculation driving manipulation "
 
 
  • Comment #16
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:59am Sep 7, 2017 8:59am
  •  Martingale
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Volume is everything | 58 Comments
the fact everybody is ready to sell should le you think this will go up
 
1
  • Comment #17
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:01am Sep 7, 2017 9:01am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.63.133
The market will still sell. I think its only reacting to the bad unemployment claims from the US.
 
 
  • Comment #18
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:02am Sep 7, 2017 9:02am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.55.73
He has specifically mentioned multiple times that interest rates will remain unchanged for extended period of time.
 
1
  • Comment #19
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:04am Sep 7, 2017 9:04am
  •  arash66110
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Member | 200 Comments
manipulators have bought e.u even by gdp 3 , it does not matter what he say,
that is why lots of countries going to ban f.x, there is no reason in market movement, only taking down retailers.
 
 
  • Comment #20
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:04am Sep 7, 2017 9:04am
  •  Stubborn
  • Joined Apr 2016 | Status: Dumbest Trader ever | 138 Comments
He has specifically mentioned multiple times that interest rates will remain unchanged for extended period of time.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
 
1
  • Comment #21
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:07am Sep 7, 2017 9:07am
  •  JakubSzalaFX
  • Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Member | 633 Comments
Quoting jurek
Disliked
{quote} So what with Your 1.22-1.23 target for today? You think is still valid?
Ignored
The market is preset to be bullish. 1.22-1.23 is just a thought.
 
 
  • Comment #22
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:12am Sep 7, 2017 9:12am
  •  Mccc
  • | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: Member | 20 Comments
Projection Eur/Usd 1.80
 
 
  • Comment #23
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:15am Sep 7, 2017 9:15am
  •  liamseden
  • Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Part-time Trader | 5 Comments
Quoting Mccc
Disliked
Projection Eur/Usd 1.80
Ignored
5 years later ?
"Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors."W.O
 
 
  • Comment #24
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:17am Sep 7, 2017 9:17am
  •  zz_zhang
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Member | 67 Comments
Quoting Mccc
Disliked
Projection Eur/Usd 1.80
Ignored
thats 6000pips my friend lol
trade safe
 
 
  • Comment #25
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:18am Sep 7, 2017 9:18am
  •  AllesMeins
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 1 Comment
Quoting Indrek
Disliked
Draghi has always followed German interests. Germany is the only country in Europe that wins from strong Euro. Who cares about others...
Ignored
Indrek you are wrong. A weak Euro is good for Germany. Cause their goods are cheeper in other countries => they will sell more.
 
 
  • Comment #26
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:19am Sep 7, 2017 9:19am
  •  Drolph
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 57 Comments
Quoting Indrek
Disliked
Draghi has always followed German interests. Germany is the only country in Europe that wins from strong Euro. Who cares about others...
Ignored
The world wide leader in exports is gaining on a stronger currency ... do the basics again, my friend.
 
 
  • Comment #27
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:21am Sep 7, 2017 9:21am
  •  Koop
  • Joined Apr 2016 | Status: Conquistadores' | 136 Comments
Lmao some comments here are very ridiculous. It's almost like no one trades anything other than EURUSD.
Is anyone looking at EURCAD or CADCHF? bearing in mind that rate was just adjusted upwards on the CAD and a lot of uncertainty still surrounds the Euro tapering?

Now, F*ck fundamentals. The technicals on EURCAD don't look that bullish to me.. more bearish IMO and i believe any spike up is an opportunity to sell.
 
 
  • Comment #28
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:21am Sep 7, 2017 9:21am
  •  rashadali
  • Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Member | 570 Comments | Online Now
draghi says market ignors! why ? because his comments makes eur safe heaven as dollar is under pressure. It means ECB is not going to do anything that makes eur expensive yet, but they won't do anything that makes euro cheap for sure )
 
 
  • Comment #29
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:46am Sep 7, 2017 9:46am
  •  mazchaudhry
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2013 | 68 Comments
Upward movement in EU exchange rate is due to Dollar index weakness ,,,Otherwise on the dovish tone of Mario Eur is weaker . Sell EU . It is going down .
 
2
  • Comment #30
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:53am Sep 7, 2017 9:53am
  •  Salazar
  • | Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 50 Comments
Like I said like a brick opa
 
 
  • Comment #31
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:58am Sep 7, 2017 9:58am
  •  NYRogue
  • | Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Member | 52 Comments
Quoting Indrek
Disliked
Draghi has always followed German interests. Germany is the only country in Europe that wins from strong Euro. Who cares about others...
Ignored
Why would Germany, as a major exporter, want a stronger Euro? They pushed for the EU because their Mark was too high compared to other European countries (and the world).
 
 
  • Comment #32
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:24am Sep 7, 2017 10:24am
  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XXX.253.236
There's a gaping the chart from around mid April. Surely the market will want to close it before it seeks its next move?
 
 
  • Comment #33
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:35am Sep 7, 2017 10:35am
  •  deepshtt
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2016 | 35 Comments
someone who said before : buy gold ,, and thats shit really happend now oh yesss
 
 
  • Comment #34
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:44am Sep 7, 2017 10:44am
  •  Viv108
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 44 Comments
Quoting Guest
Disliked
There's a gaping the chart from around mid April. Surely the market will want to close it before it seeks its next move?
Ignored
Yes that's true. Gaps are always filled. Just a question of when. Could be weeks/months
 
 
  • Comment #35
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 11:11am Sep 7, 2017 11:11am
  •  Obaforex
  • | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: Member | 7 Comments
Quoting Guest
Disliked
The market will still sell. I think its only reacting to the bad unemployment claims from the US.
Ignored
u don't mean this, do u?
 
 
  • Comment #36
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 12:13pm Sep 7, 2017 12:13pm
  •  Indrek
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 181 Comments
Quoting AllesMeins
Disliked
{quote} Indrek you are wrong. A weak Euro is good for Germany. Cause their goods are cheeper in other countries => they will sell more.
Ignored
Germany is the only country in Europe, whicht has so strong export power that higher prices do not hurt it but play in favour. It is proved by facts.
 
2
  • Comment #37
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 12:35pm Sep 7, 2017 12:35pm
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Indrek
Disliked
{quote} Germany is the only country in Europe, whicht has so strong export power that higher prices do not hurt it but play in favour. It is proved by facts.
Ignored
agreed.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
 
  • Comment #38
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 12:45pm Sep 7, 2017 12:45pm
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Indrek
Disliked
Draghi has always followed German interests. Germany is the only country in Europe that wins from strong Euro. Who cares about others...
Ignored
disagreed. do some research:many german politicians wanted qe to be ended already. just google schäubles take on this subject. plus the german public is very upset with 0 interest policy, accompanied by the whole german finance sector (banks + insurance companies).
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
1
  • Comment #39
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 1:06pm Sep 7, 2017 1:06pm
  •  fxx360
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 875 Comments
the dust has settled ............let the Euro tank
 
 
  • Comment #40
  • Quote
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:44pm Sep 7, 2017 4:44pm
  •  UnBearybull
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Member | 599 Comments
EURo will collapse, go down, bearish, will implode. etc etc zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Except it doesn't and hasn't, you've been saying this for 9 months now. No evidence except for your mysterious hate for the EURO. Bias costs money, obviously. µ
 
 
  • Comment #41
  • Quote
  • Edited Sep 8, 2017 2:46am Sep 7, 2017 10:40pm | Edited Sep 8, 2017 2:46am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting NYRogue
Disliked
{quote} Why would Germany, as a major exporter, want a stronger Euro? They pushed for the EU because their Mark was too high compared to other European countries (and the world).
Ignored
Why would Germany want a stronger Euro?
Why have the Bundesbank and German government repeatedly pressure ECB to raise rates?

Thereis an illusion that Germany's export structure is geared towards or dependent on price competition. The complex machinery, precision instruments and medications the country sells overseas aren't competitive because the euro is weak, but because they are often unique or because their producers' reputation, built over decades, draws buyers despite high prices. German export demand is inelastic. Germany exports so much because its products are better. Not because they are cheaper.

Germany doesn't want a weak euro; they constantly push against it.. a stronger currency wouldnt hurt Germany's price-inelastic export-oriented economy. Accusing Germans of supporting an undervalued euro is to misunderstand what is to Germanys advantage here. A quick check on the CONSTANT pressure from Germany for HIGHER rates from ECB clarifies this. and it betrays either a knowledge gap or (in Navarros case) a desire to pick a fight regardless of the facts.
(sources: Various)
 
2
  • Comment #42
  • Quote
  • Edited Sep 8, 2017 2:47am Sep 7, 2017 10:55pm | Edited Sep 8, 2017 2:47am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting UnBearybull
Disliked
EURo will collapse, go down, bearish, will implode. etc etc zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Except it doesn't and hasn't, you've been saying this for 9 months now. No evidence except for your mysterious hate for the EURO. Bias costs money, obviously. µ
Ignored
9 months? LoL..
You must understand that this chorus of negative wishful thinking, isnt 9 months old..not 9 years old ..its 19 years old and before.
Reality is that very existence of the Euro doesnt suit a large number of other Nations and global finanial interests.
How much easier would it be to have 19 fragmented currencys for preditory financial interests to wheel and deal and exploit. The same forces hate the single market for exactly the same reasons. The idea of sovereign nations cooperating to create stability in their region just doesnt suit many preditory national and financial interests.
Most particularly centered in NYC and in case of EZ, London..Lol
 
 
  • Comment #43
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 2:36am Sep 8, 2017 2:36am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting NewtonsCash
Disliked
Keep on printing Mario , Golds keeping score
Ignored
Really?
QE introduced March 2015.. XAUEUR = 1085
Today Septenber 2017... XAUEUR = 1095.

Stick to Bitcoin.
 
1
  • Comment #44
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 2:59am Sep 8, 2017 2:59am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} Why would Germany want a stronger Euro? Why have the Bundesbank and German government repeatedly pressure ECB to raise rates? Thereis an illusion that Germany's export structure is geared towards or dependent on price competition. The complex machinery, precision instruments and medications the country sells overseas aren't competitive because the euro is weak, but because they are often unique or because their producers' reputation, built over decades, draws buyers despite high prices. German export demand is inelastic....
Ignored
finally soemone uses the right terms to describe the situation in a correct way.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
 
  • Comment #45
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 4:01am Sep 8, 2017 4:01am
  •  smikester
  • Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 879 Comments
Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} 9 months? LoL.. You must understand that this chorus of negative wishful thinking, isnt 9 months old..not 9 years old ..its 19 years old and before. Reality is that very existence of the Euro doesnt suit a large number of other Nations and global finanial interests. How much easier would it be to have 19 fragmented currencys for preditory financial interests to wheel and deal and exploit. The same forces hate the single market for exactly the same reasons. The idea of sovereign nations cooperating to create stability in their region just...
Ignored
It doesn't seem to matter how much space you use up making sense, there are still others who will use more space to post nonsense. These comments threads have been banned by me, for me, because of the sheer ludicrosity of most posts - although I find myself here now... (Ludicrosity is a new word).

Youtube has even more entertaining comments sections, I have noticed.
Gone to a better place
 
3
  • Comment #46
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 10:54am Sep 8, 2017 10:54am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
Germany reer is way- way under true value
really to say Germany has inelastic export products is a joke
There less elastic like for like other same product range
because of the quality ,Id go along with that
inelastic = something like petrol



Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between Germany’s exports and its exchange rate.
The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s aggregate exports, its real exchange rate, and income in importing countries. In every specification the evidence implies that an appreciation of the German reer would reduce exports. The results using the unit labor cost-deflated reer are precisely and robustly estimated and indicate that a 10 percent appreciation would reduce exports by 6 percent. German exports are also sensitive to income in the rest of the world.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
1
  • Comment #47
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:05am Sep 8, 2017 11:05am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
facts don't back up this comment whatsoever

Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} Why would Germany want a stronger Euro? Why have the Bundesbank and German government repeatedly pressure ECB to raise rates? Thereis an illusion that Germany's export structure is geared towards or dependent on price competition. The complex machinery, precision instruments and medications the country sells overseas aren't competitive because the euro is weak, but because they are often unique or because their producers' reputation, built over decades, draws buyers despite high prices. German export demand is inelastic. Germany exports...
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Comment #48
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:16am Sep 8, 2017 11:16am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
Germany reer is way- way under true value really to say Germany has inelastic export products is a joke There less elastic like for like other same product range because of the quality ,Id go along with that inelastic = something like petrol Germany is now the world’s second largest exporter. Its exports have soared since it joined the common currency in 1999. This paper seeks to understand the relationship between Germany’s exports and its exchange rate. The results indicate that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between Germany’s aggregate...
Ignored
hi bones,

a product is inelastic if a large change in price is accompanied by a small amount of change in quantity demanded. so yes, many german export products have an inelastic demand by definition.

please link the source of that paper. at the moment i can only agree with the last sentence.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
 
  • Comment #49
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:33am Sep 8, 2017 11:33am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
hey D inelastic basically means you have to buy it at pretty much any price

cars
for instance are very elastic

http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf


Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} hi bones, a product is inelastic if a large change in price is accompanied by a small amount of change in quantity demanded. so yes, many german export products have an inelastic demand by definition. please link the source of that paper. at the moment i can only agree with the last sentence.
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Comment #50
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:33am Sep 8, 2017 11:33am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} hi bones, a product is inelastic if a large change in price is accompanied by a small amount of change in quantity demanded. so yes, many german export products have an inelastic demand by definition. please link the source of that paper. at the moment i can only agree with the last sentence.
Ignored
Simple example.. Average price of US brand autos in US in 2015 somewhere about USD$20k.. Japanese and French similar- Korean probably up to 5k less. Average price German vehicles almost USD$35k. Anyone think many people paying 35k average for German car will be put off by a price rise? Dont think so.
Always be a market for the better product.
 
 
  • Comment #51
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:40am Sep 8, 2017 11:40am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
simple
example is look at the timing of the explosion
then further as devaluation added
completely undeniable
also makes sense
a massive exporter wants to hold its exchange rate as low as poss
relative to those its selling to
you can see this any exporter country
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot 2017-07-11_21-48-17.png
Size: 63 KB
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
1
  • Comment #52
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:43am Sep 8, 2017 11:43am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
BTW.. WTF is "Greman reer"

Quoting Bones
Disliked
simple example is look at the timing of the explosion then further as devaluation added completely undeniable also makes sense a massive exporter wants to hold its exchange rate as low as poss relative to those its selling to you can see this any exporter country {image}
Ignored
This a really stupid conversation..
Please go get some grounding in economics 101.
Im done here.
 
 
  • Comment #53
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 11:51am Sep 8, 2017 11:51am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
your the economist who's saying cars are inelastic

Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
BTW.. WTF is "Greman reer" {quote} This a really stupid conversation.. Please go get some grounding in economics 101. Im done here.
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Comment #54
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 12:04pm Sep 8, 2017 12:04pm
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
your the economist who's saying cars are inelastic {quote}
Ignored
NO. Try to pay attention sport..
Im saying the Greman Exports are not easily substitutable because of their unique qualities.
And accoringly demand for them is often very inelastic.
Elasticity is largely determined by ease of substitution.
FFS TRY to follow and stop misquoting..
This is getting beyond stupid.
 
 
  • Comment #55
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 12:11pm Sep 8, 2017 12:11pm
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
name one big sector that's not easy to replace
your comparing apples and pears in your simple example on cars

Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} NO. Try to pay attention sport.. Im saying the Greman Exports are not easily substitutable because of their unique qualities. And accoringly demand for them is often very inelastic. Elasticity is largely determined by ease of substitution. FFS TRY to follow and stop misquoting.. This is getting beyond stupid.
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Comment #56
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 12:27pm Sep 8, 2017 12:27pm
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
Results using a panel data set indicate that consumption exports are much more sensitive than capital goods exports are to exchange rate changes. German capital goods exports tend to be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price. Thus the fact that the price elasticity is small is not surprising. The findings also indicate that German exports to the eurozone are much more price elastic than German exports outside the eurozone.
Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2 shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone. This in turn contributed to the huge eurozone imbalances that are evident in Figure 3.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
1
  • Comment #57
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 12:53pm Sep 8, 2017 12:53pm
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
hey D inelastic basically means you have to buy it at pretty much any price cars for instance are very elastic http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf {quote}
Ignored
thx for the link. will read it later/another day (getting ready for party now, tgif) but noticed it comes from japan. (they have my sympathy as long as they like to call themselves "the prussians of asia" )

that´s only true for 100% (perfect) inelastic functions. in reality, there are different levels of inelastic demands.

well, it depends (to be honest, the most common sentence of any economist):

that´s true for honda, dacia, fiat et. al, aiming at cheap price sensible clients.
that´s not true for mercedes, bmw, audis et. al, aiming at premium class/high quality clients.

cu
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
1
  • Comment #58
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 1:07pm Sep 8, 2017 1:07pm
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
Im not knocking Germany D ,but it is sensitive to exchange rates
only 2 things could happen if a true exchange happened
price would rise to the consumer and sales would fall
profit would be less to the supplier

there are many alternatives within the luxury market
I draw you to the added logical comment
"German exports are also sensitive to income in the rest of the world."



Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} thx for the link. will read it later/another day (getting ready for party now, tgif) but noticed it comes from japan. (they have my sympathy as long as they like to call themselves "the prussians of asia" ) that´s only true for 100% (perfect) inelastic functions. in reality, there are different levels of inelastic demands. well, it depends (to be honest, the most common sentence of any economist): that´s true for honda, dacia, fiat et. al, aiming at cheap price sensible clients. that´s not true for mercedes, bmw, audis...
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Comment #59
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 1:12pm Sep 8, 2017 1:12pm
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
Im not knocking Germany D ,but it is sensitive to exchange rates only 2 things could happen if a true exchange happened price would rise to the consumer and sales would fall profit would be less to the supplier there are many alternatives within the luxury market I draw you to the added logical comment "German exports are also sensitive to income in the rest of the world." {quote}
Ignored
i know, and never thought you did.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
 
  • Comment #60
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 1:13pm Sep 8, 2017 1:13pm
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Reality Check... *
Intra-EU trade in goods balance by Member State, 2015 (EUR billion) shows Netherlands to have the biggest intraEU trade surplus by a factor of 2. . Not Germany, who dispite its size, is only no2. followed closely by Belgium.
UK incidently is the least successful Intra EU exporter to the other 27.
which leads me to wonder to ask how, if we cant succeed in the EU totally tariff free trade internal market how do we think we can become a big success in a world free trade market?
Riddle me that?

* Source : EuroStat 2015

Quoting Bones
Disliked
"German exports are also sensitive to income in the rest of the world." {quote}
Ignored
In case youve not noticed growth in some of the BRIC countries are set to engulf both the UK the EU and even the US, within 20 years. So no shortage of customers there going forward for better and specialised products.
 
 
  • Comment #61
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 1:39pm Sep 8, 2017 1:39pm
  •  DrManhatten
  • Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 298 Comments
Quoting AllesMeins
Disliked
{quote} Indrek you are wrong. A weak Euro is good for Germany. Cause their goods are cheeper in other countries => they will sell more.
Ignored

BINGO! We have a winner!
 
 
  • Comment #62
  • Quote
  • Sep 8, 2017 10:33pm Sep 8, 2017 10:33pm
  •  DerPat
  • | Joined Jul 2016 | Status: Member | 5 Comments
Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} the german public is very upset with 0 interest policy
Ignored
Me as one of them let me tell you, the German public does not understand a thing about interest rates. The rest I totally agree. But those who understand interest rates in Germany, they usually also know that we have a problem with our current fiscal policy as we do not have a streamlined financial policy in Europe. Whatever they do is nonsense for one or the other country. I guess this is why they do nothing at all. BRS
Pat
 
 
  • Comment #63
  • Quote
  • Sep 10, 2017 4:13am Sep 10, 2017 4:13am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
hey D inelastic basically means you have to buy it at pretty much any price cars for instance are very elastic http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e081.pdf {quote}
Ignored
instead of reading the sunday paper, i´ve been reading that REITI dicussion paper.

it was worth the reading, thanks. my axplanatory notes:

first thing i want to see when looking at an economic analysis that it is unbiased. that´s the case here.
making assumptions and testing them with statistical methods, not that worthless "meenings" and "observations" which are innumerable on ff.

the abstract underlines what i´ve been saying here for a long time:

"Germany´s real exchange rate also depreciated vis-a-vis eurozone countries after 2000
because German firms and workers controlled unit labor costs." (p. 1)

that´s what i´ve stated many times: structural reforms took place, unit labor costs decreased, productivity increased and that´s the reason for the competitiveness. in 1999, germany had the highest ulc-level and was named "the sick man of europe" and "an industrial museum" because of the highly regulated labour market f.e..

https://www.iwkoeln.de/en/press/pres...l-trade-280227

while the statistical model used is appropriate in general, i´ve to critizise the method:

"A consistent time series for the ULC-deflated reer is only available up to 2009." (p. 4)
that´s correct from the statistical view, but the outcome relying on the ucl-deflated reer is limited for the same reason. this is also stated by the authors later:

"The ULC data come from the OECD.4 The ULC data have some missing values and some estimated values. In addition, in some cases the ULC-deflated bilateral real exchange rate varies erratically. Thus more weight should probably be attached in this section to the results using the CEPII real exchange rate." (p. 10)

"The major importing countries over the whole sample period are Austria, Belgium (and Luxembourg), Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States." (p. 9) well, china (#5), poland (#8), switzerland (#9) where important export countries for germany in 2016. therefor, the validity for the actual situation is limited.

"The income elasticites range from 2.6 to 3.5, indicating that Germany’s consumption goods exports are sensitive to income in the importing countries. Many of these goods are luxury cars and other high-end items, so the high income elasticities make sense." (p. 11) that´s correct, but leaving out china (with the highest absolute number of newly rich) over the past decade shows an incomplete part of the picture. look at the sales of german luxury cars in china.

"The elasticities for the CEPII real exchange rate equal about 0.3 and the elasticities for the ULC-deflated rer equal about 0.2. These low elasticities probably reflect the fact that Germany’s capital goods exports tend to be high quality goods that compete more on quality than on price." bingo.

"Since Germany experienced a large internal devaluation against other eurozone countries after 2000, one would expect exports from Germany to the eurozone to have increased. Figure 2 shows that there was indeed a surge in exports to the eurozone" right. again, it´s the case of structural reforms in germany while others in the eurozone did nothing about that. germany´s ucl decreased in the 2000-decade by nearly -2% per year while pigs increased their ucl by +2% every year.

conclusion:

yes, german export are sensitive to the income in the rest of the world. that´s good for a big and open economy because world income growth is permanent. lesser in the advanced economies but strong growing in other parts of the world.
yes, exchange rate matters but does not explain the competitiveness of the german export industry. it´s an add-on, windfall profit (if it´s not hedged). since every profit is good, that´s not a bad thing. but germany doesn´t need it.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
1
  • Comment #64
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:48am Sep 10, 2017 8:03am | Edited 8:48am
  •  cliffedwards
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2006 | 3078 Comments
Quoting DerPat
Disliked
{quote} Me as one of them let me tell you, the German public does not understand a thing about interest rates. The rest I totally agree. But those who understand interest rates in Germany, they usually also know that we have a problem with our current fiscal policy as we do not have a streamlined financial policy in Europe. Whatever they do is nonsense for one or the other country. I guess this is why they do nothing at all. BRS
Ignored
Yep. I recently saw a reference to an interesting/imaginative suggestion from Gros & Meyer I read couple of years ago.. you might be interested in here: http://voxeu.org/article/german-sove...fund-save-euro.
Another article worth quick scan which addresses some of the internal challenges of German export balances within the EZ (Balance-of-Payments Adjustments) https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/PB%...%20in%20EZ.pdf
But more interesting is his focus on need for meaningful reform in a number of major Intra-EU markets that member states stubbornly insist on remaining under national manipulation/control. (Energy/Transport/ communications etc)

Bit off topic in current discussion about role of Euro valuation in German Ex-EZ export competotiveness.
Maybe of interest also to @Deltaone
 
 
  • Comment #65
  • Quote
  • Sep 10, 2017 8:22am Sep 10, 2017 8:22am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
simple example is look at the timing of the explosion then further as devaluation added completely undeniable also makes sense a massive exporter wants to hold its exchange rate as low as poss relative to those its selling to you can see this any exporter country {image}
Ignored
simple, but wrong. post hoc ergo propter hoc. it´s easy to falsify this:

eurusd has increased from october 2000 - april 2008 from 1,20 tp 1,60. this means +33%. in case german export demand would be elastic, this would have ment a german decrease in exports to the usa. the opposite took place.

if you want to learn more about german export figures, destatis is a great source.

in general:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/ForeignTrade/ForeignTrade.html

f.e. german-chinese trade data:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/STATmagazin/ForeignTrade/2008_7/2008_7ForeignTradeChina.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Aussenhandel/Gesamtentwicklung/AussenhandelWelthandel5510006099004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile (maybe you find an english version of this paper).
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
 
  • Comment #66
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2017 10:40am Sep 11, 2017 10:40am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
Thanks ,
yea by no means does the exchange rate fully explain the situation
No doubt in my mind Germany has made many wise decisions on Labour and been very innovative
The exchange is an advantage nothing would change my mind, as UK has carried an EU given advantage on services all this time
But it's only part of the puzzle

Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} instead of reading the sunday paper, i´ve been reading that REITI dicussion paper. it was worth the reading, thanks. my axplanatory notes: first thing i want to see when looking at an economic analysis that it is unbiased. that´s the case here. making assumptions and testing them with statistical methods, not that worthless "meenings" and "observations" which are innumerable on ff. the abstract underlines what i´ve been saying here for a long time: "Germany´s real exchange rate also depreciated vis-a-vis eurozone...
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
1
  • Comment #67
  • Quote
  • Sep 11, 2017 11:09am Sep 11, 2017 11:09am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
Thanks , yea by no means does the exchange rate fully explain the situation No doubt in my mind Germany has made many wise decisions on Labour and been very innovative The exchange is an advantage nothing would change my mind, as UK has carried an EU given advantage on services all this time But it's only part of the puzzle {quote}
Ignored
you´re welcome.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
1
  • Comment #68
  • Quote
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:08am Sep 12, 2017 7:08am
  •  NewtonsCash
  • Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 2580 Comments
It's true Cliff my Gold Mining investments are only up 260% in the last 12 Months whilst my Bitcoins are up 347%... but I must applaud myself in welcoming diversity to my portfolio

Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} Really? QE introduced March 2015.. XAUEUR = 1085 Today Septenber 2017... XAUEUR = 1095. Stick to Bitcoin.
Ignored
 
 
  • Comment #69
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2017 4:06am Sep 14, 2017 4:06am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
BMW AG became the latest carmaker to weigh in on the Brexit debate as an executive warned the introduction of any tariff would have repercussions for the German carmaker’s business.
“Anything beyond zero level of duty will possibly lead to us changing our value chain,” Duesmann said in an interview at the Frankfurt auto show on Wednesday. “We’re extremely concerned that the Brexit talks have been so piecemeal and slow so far.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ariff-concern?


Quoting deltaone
Disliked
{quote} simple, but wrong. post hoc ergo propter hoc. it´s easy to falsify this: eurusd has increased from october 2000 - april 2008 from 1,20 tp 1,60. this means +33%. in case german export demand would be elastic, this would have ment a german decrease in exports to the usa. the opposite took place. if you want to learn more about german export figures, destatis is a great source. in general: https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...eignTrade.html f.e. german-chinese trade data: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publicati...radeChina.html...
Ignored
Quoting cliffedwards
Disliked
{quote} NO. Try to pay attention sport.. Im saying the Greman Exports are not easily substitutable because of their unique qualities. And accoringly demand for them is often very inelastic. Elasticity is largely determined by ease of substitution. FFS TRY to follow and stop misquoting.. This is getting beyond stupid.
Ignored
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
1
  • Comment #70
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2017 5:06am Sep 14, 2017 5:06am
  •  deltaone
  • Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 426 Comments
Quoting Bones
Disliked
BMW AG became the latest carmaker to weigh in on the Brexit debate as an executive warned the introduction of any tariff would have repercussions for the German carmaker’s business. “Anything beyond zero level of duty will possibly lead to us changing our value chain,” Duesmann said in an interview at the Frankfurt auto show on Wednesday. “We’re extremely concerned that the Brexit talks have been so piecemeal and slow so far.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ariff-concern?...
Ignored
yes, german exporters want to have freetrade-agreements. the more, the better. eliminating risk of policy-changes is more difficult to "hedge" than currency-price caused risks which can be controlled financialy or geographically. that´s why he mentioned value chain.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
 
1
  • Comment #71
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:28am Sep 14, 2017 6:28am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 2733 Comments
The thing with something like BMW since we talked about it
its a product to the masses now unlike the past
most people could buy one if they wanted-the bread and butter is in the mass market
I remember if you had a Merc you were considered rich
so Tariff or Exchange effects it
with the fact there's many options on such a thing including not buying one
new car sales already bad this year UK

There's a strong following but price matters , it's not a Lamborghini market

Hopefully business will ensure a deal
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
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