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  • Commitments of Traders. Warning! Specs Net long EUR & all time high net short in CAD.

    From humbletraders.com

    The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC. It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders: Commercial Traders – Hedgers Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers Non-Reportable – Retail market The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be. It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included. This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures ... (full story)

Anyone understands the conflicting statements??
It says COT positioning for USDCAD is Extreme Bullish.
Then it says "...86K net short. This level is the ALL TIME HIGH",
then supports such a short bias by saying "Expect sharp move to the downside."
Confusing much??
When in doubt, HEDGE
Quoting AdelPC
Anyone understands the conflicting statements?? It says COT positioning for USDCAD is Extreme Bullish. Then it says "...86K net short. This level is the ALL TIME HIGH", then supports such a short bias by saying "Expect sharp move to the downside." Confusing much??
COT never trading tool, Only 5% impact of technical trading.
Never Gamble Forex
Quoting AdelPC
Anyone understands the conflicting statements?? It says COT positioning for USDCAD is Extreme Bullish. Then it says "...86K net short. This level is the ALL TIME HIGH", then supports such a short bias by saying "Expect sharp move to the downside." Confusing much??
This is for CADUSD as the contracts are quoted in US dollars.
Quoting Psychologist
{quote} This is for CADUSD as the contracts are quoted in US dollars.
I hope what you said is correct.
"USDCAD is Extreme Bullish" is like saying "CADUSD is Extreme Bearish".
When in doubt, HEDGE
OMG... price is doing exactly the opposite right now. USDCAD is sharply lower...
When in doubt, HEDGE
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Only use the COT report to add confluence to a potential trend reversal
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} I hope what you said is correct. "USDCAD is Extreme Bullish" is like saying "CADUSD is Extreme Bearish".
The article text is confusing, but the chart is not (see the USDCAD chart in the article). It is USDCAD weekly, with COT values plotted in the subgraphs below. Notice the massive buildup of longs in 2012, and notice what price did from 2012 to 2016. Notice the large spikes in short positions beginning of 2014, mid-2015 and beginning of 2016 and observe what price did immediately after. Now look at the current COT values at the extreme right of the same chart. What is the chart telling you about the future direction of USDCAD for the next 6 months?
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
Quoting Trainman
{quote} The article text is confusing, but the chart is not (see the USDCAD chart in the article). It is USDCAD weekly, with COT values plotted in the subgraphs below. Notice the massive buildup of longs in 2012, and notice what price did from 2012 to 2016. Notice the large spikes in short positions beginning of 2014, mid-2015 and beginning of 2016 and observe what price did immediately after. Now look at the current COT values at the extreme right of the same chart. What is the chart telling you about the future direction of USDCAD for the next...
Thank you friend. Looks like chart is saying USDCAD will be down a few weeks. If this comes to pass, then I'd better pay more attention to this COT thingy.
When in doubt, HEDGE
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My reading of COT is in the futures market 6C is extremely Bullish. Am I correct?
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} Thank you friend. Looks like chart is saying USDCAD will be down a few weeks. If this comes to pass, then I'd better pay more attention to this COT thingy.
Yer welcome! BTW, nearly every "expert" writing about COT data gets it WRONG. They invariably focus on the positions of Large Speculators (Non-Commercial columns). It is the Commercial traders that know the most about the given commodity or currency. In this COT report, Large Specs have increased their short positions on CAD 19k contracts. But look at the Commercial column -- they have increased net longs on CAD by 38k contracts -- do you think they know something the speculators don't?

Everything I learned about interpreting COT data I learned from Larry Williams, specifically a video course called "The Money Tree".
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
Trainman, aren't those commercial traders mostly hedgers of risk?
Quoting Trainman
{quote} Yer welcome! BTW, nearly every "expert" writing about COT data gets it WRONG. They invariably focus on the positions of Large Speculators (Non-Commercial columns). It is the Commercial traders that know the most about the given commodity or currency. In this COT report, Large Specs have increased their short positions on CAD 19k contracts. But look at the Commercial column -- they have increased net longs on CAD by 38k contracts -- do you think they know something the speculators don't? Everything I learned about interpreting COT...
I agree but it really depends what you are using the COT data for. First, you will not benefit from COT data by just looking at the week to week data unless you look at the history. In this case COT is giving CAD a bearish signal because Non-commercial buyers are at an ALL TIME HIGH. True, Commercials have increased significantly and this is how it is suppose to be because Commercial and Non-Commercial do the opposite thing but Commercials are not at an extreme yet to create an unbalance in the market. As it is now, i will only look to Short CAD and as you can see on USDCAD chart price has been rejected at 1.36 which is a level of support which means Long USDCAD.
Quoting mades
Trainman, aren't those commercial traders mostly hedgers of risk?
Of course. But you get all shades of grey. Whether or not you are considered a hedger depends on whether you ticked that box on the form when you opened the trading account. It places no restriction on how you may trade. If you are a farmer looking to hedge your corn crop, and with your insider knowledge you are pretty sure the price will go up substantially in the next month you may decide to wait longer before selling. You might even buy some contracts if you see a strong enough case for it. Either action affects the total net short or long.

Quoting Samerfx
{quote} I agree but it really depends what you are using the COT data for. First, you will not benefit from COT data by just looking at the week to week data unless you look at the history. In this case COT is giving CAD a bearish signal because Non-commercial buyers are at an ALL TIME HIGH. True, Commercials have increased significantly and this is how it is suppose to be because Commercial and Non-Commercial do the opposite thing but Commercials are not at an extreme yet to create an unbalance in the market. As it is now, i will only look to Short...
Read the chart and trade it as you see it, YMMV. I just took a long position on USDCAD and made a nice profit on it even though my interpretation of the COT data would imply a short position. COT analysis works best for long term positions and this was a day trade.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
Quoting AdelPC
{quote} Thank you friend. Looks like chart is saying USDCAD will be down a few weeks. If this comes to pass, then I'd better pay more attention to this COT thingy.
USDCAD 1.3270, 500 PIPS LOWER. Never ignore COT...
HumbleTraders
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: May 14, 2017 9:36pm
  • Submitted by:
     gfscapital
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 14  /  Views: 8,491